Short out of Miracles: Prussia loses Seven Years' War (planification thread)

Susano

Banned
Royal Blue: SN state within the HRE at Maximum extent, border through the Eastern Scheldt (though unlikely probablility) This state may be under a cadet Fr. Bourbon such as Duke of Orleans or perhaps the Duke of Parma if Parma has gone to to the Austrian hapsburgs as originally envisioned.
I dont think GB will accept a French secundogeniture, either.

Light Blue/Royal Blue: Smaller and more realistic SN state under above proposition.
As Ive said above I dont think the French-German border would correpond to the borders of the single territories, but as usual would go right through them.
Grand Duchy of Flanders ( Otherwise wouldn't it really be D's of Flanders, South Brabant and Limbourg)
...No. There was exactly ONE Grand-Duchy at the time, with papal privilege, that being Tuscany. Everything else that came later was the insane Napoleonic title inflation. Theres nothing above Duchy. (and even that would be a raise for the COUNTY of Flanders, of course)

oops and a correction, I think Lorraine is still part of the HRE at the moment so the HRE line actually runs down that border with France
Actually, no.

Regarding Liege, how important is it that it remain independent? Because it would seem to me that it would make life rather simpler if it was divided into two or even three pieces to rationalize the borders.
Yeah, as said, theyd probably have rationalised borders and not care about territories. Nontheless, Liege is not part of the Austrian Netherlands, hence not part of this peace settlement. Besides, its often times been a French ally. I dunno whats up with that, why so many Imperial bishops always went traitor and sided with France!
 
That and its a Church Estate, this is well before the era usurpation of Church lands in the HRE, though no unheard of...

Actually Christian 4. of Denmark-Norway had been very much into this game to secure his younger brothers and cousins AND making for nice buffers towards the Emperor (and whoever else!)
 
So, really, after reading all of this, two scenarios have come to my head.

The first is that the French decide that the Southern Netherlands belongs to them, fair and square. Wether that be direct annexation, or placing a cadet branch up there, they do something that to the British Parliament is unnaceptable, and becomes unwilling to compromise. Hannover is occupied and eventualy handed over to the Hapsburgs, who are not incredibly happy about it and look for something to do with it. If they did get Hannover, they might try and trade it to Charles Theodore for Bavaria later down the line. The British decide to keep all their gains, but to gain peace they hand back some sugar islands in the end. In the end, very few people are happy. The Hapsburgs are pretty happy what with Prussia down and out, but they are stuck with Hannover. The French got the Southern Netherlands, but have lost almost quite a bit of colonies. The British made major colonial gains, but the situation on the continent has become unfavourable. The Dutch don't like the French on their border. In short, most of the major combattants feels that something needs to be fixed, and the next major war will be the one to do it.

The second scenario is the French decide they like the colonies better. Austrian Netherlands goes to Parma, or stays Habsburg, or goes to someone else or France makes small gains(Luxembourg). The British make rather large concessions in the colonial department. All the carribean islands are returned, Minorca is lost, most of New France is returned (minus the North West), and makes gives back parts of Nova Scotia/Acadia and maybe some concessions in the Hudson Bay. Huge fallout in Britain and the American colonies. Hapsburgs are probably happier in this scenario, having shorn off or not lost (better the problem you know then the one you don't) the Austrian Netherlands and having humbled Prussia. France again would be somewhat unhappy, since they probably have wanted both colonial and European gains.

I'm not sure which way to go, but I'm leaning towards France deciding it'll take the Austrian Netherlands...
 

The Sandman

Banned
So, really, after reading all of this, two scenarios have come to my head.

The first is that the French decide that the Southern Netherlands belongs to them, fair and square. Wether that be direct annexation, or placing a cadet branch up there, they do something that to the British Parliament is unnaceptable, and becomes unwilling to compromise. Hannover is occupied and eventualy handed over to the Hapsburgs, who are not incredibly happy about it and look for something to do with it. If they did get Hannover, they might try and trade it to Charles Theodore for Bavaria later down the line. The British decide to keep all their gains, but to gain peace they hand back some sugar islands in the end. In the end, very few people are happy. The Hapsburgs are pretty happy what with Prussia down and out, but they are stuck with Hannover. The French got the Southern Netherlands, but have lost almost quite a bit of colonies. The British made major colonial gains, but the situation on the continent has become unfavourable. The Dutch don't like the French on their border. In short, most of the major combattants feels that something needs to be fixed, and the next major war will be the one to do it.

The second scenario is the French decide they like the colonies better. Austrian Netherlands goes to Parma, or stays Habsburg, or goes to someone else or France makes small gains(Luxembourg). The British make rather large concessions in the colonial department. All the carribean islands are returned, Minorca is lost, most of New France is returned (minus the North West), and makes gives back parts of Nova Scotia/Acadia and maybe some concessions in the Hudson Bay. Huge fallout in Britain and the American colonies. Hapsburgs are probably happier in this scenario, having shorn off or not lost (better the problem you know then the one you don't) the Austrian Netherlands and having humbled Prussia. France again would be somewhat unhappy, since they probably have wanted both colonial and European gains.

I'm not sure which way to go, but I'm leaning towards France deciding it'll take the Austrian Netherlands...

The question then is whether or not that immediately produces the second war you mention. Since nobody actually wanted to see the French gaining the entirety of the SN, you might well have had the British, Austrians and Dutch all ally to hold off the French. France accepting just Wallonia and Luxemburg and Flanders becoming independent as a buffer between France and the Netherlands sounds more likely.

To be honest, the real key issue here is what the attitude of the British government would be towards Hannover. The King may or may not want to keep it, but from the sound of it Parliament would have no real desire to reacquire it if it meant sacrificing immense gains overseas.
 
About Hannover, could France and Britain reach a deal where Hannover is no more in personnal union, but stays with a branch of the same dynasty? Maybe this guy: Charles, Duke of Brunswick-Wolfenbüttel?
 
I dont think GB will accept a French secundogeniture, either.


As Ive said above I dont think the French-German border would correpond to the borders of the single territories, but as usual would go right through them.

...No. There was exactly ONE Grand-Duchy at the time, with papal privilege, that being Tuscany. Everything else that came later was the insane Napoleonic title inflation. Theres nothing above Duchy. (and even that would be a raise for the COUNTY of Flanders, of course)


Actually, no.


Yeah, as said, theyd probably have rationalised borders and not care about territories. Nontheless, Liege is not part of the Austrian Netherlands, hence not part of this peace settlement. Besides, its often times been a French ally. I dunno whats up with that, why so many Imperial bishops always went traitor and sided with France!

Lorraine and Bar remained the possession of Stanislas Leszczynski until his death in 1766, at which point it then reverted to the French crown

The Dutch as I have been corrected were not in the Seven years war so Zeelandia-Flanders is probably not up for grabs... but if SN is going to France because of the agreement with Austria, and Prussia's demise makes that entirely possible, would they remain out of the fray...In which case it very much comes into play as the French can very well occupy the place and there is little the Dutch or English can do. There is the whole matter of the barrier fortresses. They would be irrelevant. The Dutch, once Prussia is going down the tubes, are going to realize they either step in actively against the Austro-French-Saxon coalition or gain what they can from the the Prussian demise and seek whatever accomodation they can from the Austrians and French. So they would definitely be a factor in the negotiations over the disposition of the SNL.

As to that, there is also Austrian and Prussian Guelders, in addition to OstFriesland, that can be offered in exchange for Zeelandia-Flanders. Austria would have to keep Limburg then.

As much as the Dutch might not desire the opening of the Scheldt to Antwerp.... The French are in a position to ensure that they agree or force the issue in their favour, unlike the Austrians who had to sacrifice the interests of the ANL for acceptance of the pragmatic sanction. Unlike the Austrians, the French at least have a Navy that the Dutch cannot sneeze at and the Dutch navy is past its peak at this point. The only real opposition would be the RN.
 
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Having caught up now after a day at work...

emplacing a French cadet line in either the SNL in its entirety or splitting it between an Orleanais and Bourbon-Parma line would be a step down to them. But if the Dutch were to threaten to enter it might be enough for them to take that step down. I don't know, while it seems unlikely, perhaps the Barrier fortresses would remain in a situation where a cadet line was placed in Flanders-Brabant. So I think New France North of the lakes would probably have to come back for peace and a breathing space. recognition of the northshore at least in Acadia, they had occupied it previous anyways so its permanent retun is not out of the question. Then can then ask for the repatriation of the Acadians that were expelled to settle them there or in New France ( which at this point is reduced to just Canada and its Upper Country squeezed between the Lakes and the hudson Bay lands).

I don't think George III is going to like giving up Hannover to whoever gets placed there which is not likely to make him happy with Parliament...things are going to get a bit testy in Westminster. He may eventually come round...but in the immediate aftermath, no there will be substantial ill feelings.

In the americas..the Virginians and southern colonies in general and Pennsylvania will not feel the French pressure nearly as they did before. Only New England and Nova Scotia may feel somewhat exposed to the French.
 
North America

Given the existing inland trade network of posts established by the French it seems that even if they give up the NW they will want exclusive control of lake superior and maintain control of Fort Michlimackinac and points further inward.

The HBC at this point traded only from its factories on the Bay and did not venture inland and would not for some time yet.

I still think there is a case to be made for returning NS and at the very least repatriation of the deported French Acadians

In any case for what its worth...

FrCan.gif
 

Susano

Banned
Lorraine and Bar remained the possession of Stanislas Leszczynski until his death in 1766, at which point it then reverted to the French crown
Yeah, but was Stanislas a prince of the Empire? IIRC, he already was a French vasall. Can be Im wrong on that, of course.

The Dutch as I have been corrected were not in the Seven years war so Zeelandia-Flanders is probably not up for grabs... but if SN is going to France because of the agreement with Austria, and Prussia's demise makes that entirely possible, would they remain out of the fray...In which case it very much comes into play as the French can very well occupy the place and there is little the Dutch or English can do.
The English can occupy virtually every colony of the French on the globe at this point. And if thats not enough annoy France with descants all over its coast. That is why it would come to a compromise treaty, and in such an one, GB would categorically reject to any notion of French Flanders, be it direct conctrol or secundogeniture. The opening poster stated so, and good reasons were given for it. The French wont get the Channel coast or the Flandrian cities.
 
Yeah, but was Stanislas a prince of the Empire? IIRC, he already was a French vasall. Can be Im wrong on that, of course.


The English can occupy virtually every colony of the French on the globe at this point. And if thats not enough annoy France with descants all over its coast. That is why it would come to a compromise treaty, and in such an one, GB would categorically reject to any notion of French Flanders, be it direct conctrol or secundogeniture. The opening poster stated so, and good reasons were given for it. The French wont get the Channel coast or the Flandrian cities.

Well they wouldn't be going back to Austria, they already have Silesia... and the French are going to get a lot more back on the colonial front... descent ofn the coasts or no. So the Brits will be coming to the table with something they both can agree on.
 

Susano

Banned
Well they wouldn't be going back to Austria, they already have Silesia... and the French are going to get a lot more back on the colonial front... descent ofn the coasts or no. So the Brits will be coming to the table with something they both can agree on.

Yeah, but the British would probably rather give back some worthless North American lands (I mean, at that point its prctcialyl empty - its worthless except for futur edevelopment valuie) then have France control Flanders. They would come to a compromise, but it wouldnt include France having Flanders. Luxemburg, maybe.

The reason that Austria wont retain the coastal SNL is a bit silly. Sure, they were ready to give up the SNL for Silesia, but if they can retain part of the SNL for free, so to say, they sure wouldnt decline. I mean, who else (who is NOT French) could get them to safeguard they dont fall into French lands? The Netherlands? Maybe, actually, but while I can how they get away with East Frisia, I dont think the negotiation powers would have them get the coastal SNL for, uh, doing nothing during the war. The British themmselves dont want the territories, and there sreally no house in need of compensation for lands lost, either. Besides, as said, France would have a reason to be on good standing with Austria during the negotiations, so will most likely stand behind Austria in that Austria retains the coastal SNL (if they themselves cant have it).
 
Yeah, but the British would probably rather give back some worthless North American lands (I mean, at that point its prctcialyl empty - its worthless except for futur edevelopment valuie) then have France control Flanders. They would come to a compromise, but it wouldnt include France having Flanders. Luxemburg, maybe.

In my opinion there are basicly two peacetreaties that can happen:
1: France keeps all of the southern Netherlands and Britain, who doesn't accept it keeps all French colonies. This sets the stage for the next war in which Britain will try to force France out of the southern Netherlands, probably with the help of northern Netherlands and Austria and possibly other countries trying to limit the french power.
2: France and Britain make a deal. Britain returns most (or even all) of the French colonies and France only annexes part of the southern netherlands. The southern parts of the southern netherlands, basicly the Walloon parts (Luxembourg alone is not enough, I think). Austria keeps the rest. This sets the stage for the next war too as France wants the rest too and Britain probably still wishes to neutralise the threat to their north American colonies.
 
Will this TL going to start ? Or it already has perhaps... ?

Won't start for another three weeks.

Starting tomorrow (today I guess since its early morning) I'm about to be set upon by exams and exams for the next two weeks.

Then I have to move back home and settle in. After that, I'll start posting the timeline.
 
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