Shogunate victory in the Boshin War ?

I'm sure this has already been asked but I have a hard time finding a thread on this so i might as well ask : what would happen if the Shogunate won the Boshin War and captured the Imperial leaders (among them of course Meiji) ?

Japan would have surely continued its modernization since it was the Tokugawa who had begun it.
But I have a hard time imagining the politics of the country after it. The Tokugawa can't abolish the Empire but I guess the Emperor would continue as a figurehead, always watched by men of the bakufu. But if they liberalize, then I don't see the system continue. A dyarchy with the Shogun and the Emperor would continue to provoke tensions and surely provoke instability in governments.
On external diplomacy, would Japan still pursue expansionnism in the Pacific ?
 
The easiest way foe a shogunate victory is that when the loyalist government in Choshu or Satsuma I believe was overthrown by the rebels, the shogun rather than procrastinating an wasting his time immediately sends forth the might of the Japanese army to quell the rebellion.

This leads to the Satsuma and Choshu rebellion being put down before the Satcho are able to gain the ear of the emperor.

However Japanese development would still be going in a similar trajectory as otl. The only difference is rather than the state being controlled by a clique of Satsuma and choshu men, it would be lead by a clique of domains loyal to the shogun and rather than the emperor and his family holding sway over foreign policy and military decisions those would be held by the Shogun.

Though it may perhaps at the higher levels be more representative of the Japanese population as a whole rather than be restricted to only men from one or two domains which means Japan would have access to a wider range of talent to act as its military officers and political leaders rather than otl where Imperial Japan could simply be called the Choshu-Satsuma-Imperial Family land.

However butterflies may lead to a different situation developing in China. in fact this POD could open up a multitude of possibly since it is in the 1860s to create much stronger east Asian states. However the Japanese were bound to once modernizing attack Korea and look for territories abroad simply due to strategic, political, and later economic reasons.

I am not sure how much of an expansion keiki was, but I can see a more tolerant and stable Japan developing, but that is a big if. We will also see a French aligned Japan rather than a British aligned one which would have interesting consequences later on.

However it is difficult due to impact of butterflies, mind-set of shogunate leaders, and the geopolitical situation that develops in Asia by 1900 with a POD in the 1850s and 60s and so it could make an interesting tl since there are so many possibilities.
 
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