Shogunate victory in the Boshin War

like the title says what would change if the Shoguns defeated the imperials in Japan? id like to know what would change in japAn & for the world
 
IIRC the only reason the insurrection happened was because the Shogunate had relaxed the hostage system in which the lords or their families had to be in Tokyo at all times.

If the Shogunate doesn't relax this system, the insurrection doesn't take place at all or is much more complicated (rebel daimyo attempting to smuggle their families out before the revolt begins or familial squabbles over the willingness to sacrifice hostage families).

And if the restoration of the Emperor fails, it would be in the Shogunate's interest to restore the hostage system.
 
IIRC the only reason the insurrection happened was because the Shogunate had relaxed the hostage system in which the lords or their families had to be in Tokyo at all times.

If the Shogunate doesn't relax this system, the insurrection doesn't take place at all or is much more complicated (rebel daimyo attempting to smuggle their families out before the revolt begins or familial squabbles over the willingness to sacrifice hostage families).

And if the restoration of the Emperor fails, it would be in the Shogunate's interest to restore the hostage system.

IOTL in 1864 the Mito and Hamaguri rebellions broke out against the bakufu, supported primarily by the imperialist faction under Mōri Takachika, the daimyo of Chōshū Domain, leading to a retaliatory military expedition by the Shogun against Chōshū, though this was mooted by a compromise measure put forward by Shimazu Narioki of Satsuma and Saigō Takamori, the leader of the Shogun's military forces, which saved face for both parties, though part of the agreement was the forced retirement of Takachika. This, in combination with the continued Western penetration of Japan, such as the Bombardment of Kagoshima, and the Battle of Shimonoseki Straits, finally lead to something of a civil war within Chōshū in which the imperialist forces of Takasugi Shinsaku come to power, deposing the legitimate government of the domain in a military coup and re-instated Takachika. In reaction to this a second expedition was launched by the Shogun, which resulted in a total military failure on the bakufu's part as Chōshū had began its modernization much earlier than the central government, having more regular contacts with the Western powers (and realizing they needed to adapt to survive), which greatly weakened the Shogun's prestige and power, and only ended with a cease-fire negotiated by the new Shogun, Tokugawa Yoshinobu, before the Chōshū troops could march on Edo. Following this in late 1867 the Satchō Alliance, an anti-Shogun compact between the domains of Satsuma, Chōshū, and Tosa, was formed by leading imperialist in all three domains, and conservatives who were now leaning towards the imperialist view. Using his new power, Sakamoto Ryōma, the daimyo of Tosa, who was something of a moderating, uniting figure between the traditionally rivals of Chōshū and Satsuma, forced Shogun Tokugawa Yoshinobu to nominally retire from his post and submit all his power and authorities to newly raised Emperor Meiji, and forced Yoshinobu to agree to "be the instrument for carrying out" imperial orders after the Alliance's forces captured Kyoto on 3 January 1868. Takamori, who had now joined the imperialist clique, went further, demanding the abolishment of the title of 'Shogun' and the confiscation of Yoshinobu's lands. Though Yoshinobu initially agreed to these ultimatums, on 17 January he declared "would not be bound by the proclamation of the Restoration," and by the 24th Shogunal forces were clashing with that of the Imperialists inside Edo, officially starting the war.

Things could have gone either way from there, and though the Shogunal forces were winning most of the early battles, a few more domains joined the Imperialists, prompting Yoshinobu to flee from Osaka to a more secure location, which severely hurt his credibility and the morale of his troops. From there everything went downhill for the bakufu.

So to answer the OP's question, as I've already stated in similar thread from just a few day's ago;

Japan modernizes anyhow, but it adopts less Western elements in the process, e.g. traditional dress likely continues to be fashionable.

It should be noted that the Western imperial powers initially supported the Shogun in the war, and it was only after victory was all-but achieved for the imperialists forces that the British decided to break ranks and recognize the imperialists as the legitimate government of Japan. The French on the other hand were committed to supporting the Shogun, and after French officers had been along the front-lines of combat advising the forces of the Shogunate they supported the short-lived Republic of Ezo. So a modern, yet traditional, Japan, under the Shogun's direct rule (the Emperor would likely be reduced to even more of a figure-head in a 'Shogun-wins' scenario), allied with (Imperial) France is a very real possibility - which means a much earlier, and much more confrontational, potential threat to British rule in far east Asia.
 
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It should be noted that the Western imperial powers initially supported the Shogun in the war, and it was only after victory was all-but achieved for the imperialists forces that the British decided to break ranks and recognize the imperialists as the legitimate government of Japan. The French on the other hand were committed to supporting the Shogun, and after French officers had been along the front-lines of combat advising the forces of the Shogunate they supported the short-lived Republic of Ezo. So a modern, yet traditional, Japan, under the Shogun's direct rule (the Emperor would likely be reduced to even more of a figure-head in a 'Shogun-wins' scenario), allied with (Imperial) France is a very real possibility - which means a much earlier, and much more confrontational, potential threat to British rule in far east Asia.

This is a video about Jules Brunet, one of the French supporter of the Shogun, and later of the Republic of Ezo. This one is related, showing some shogunal troops (Denshutai) trained by the French.

It would be weird to see an Imperial Japan supported by the English and an republican Hokaido backed by the French.
 
It would be weird to see an Imperial Japan supported by the English and an republican Hokaido backed by the French.
hey that would be cool a british supported imperial & french supported shogunate fighting a sort of proxy war
 
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