Shogunate Japan and the Samurai modernize

[Modern Imperialism]

What if Shogunate Japan modernized and survived into the 1900 century? This could be done by them winning the Boshin War or preventing it somehow. The country still industrializes and tries to expand but under the rule of the shogun. If the shogun survives by winning the civil war maybe he uses the war to depose of the emperor permanently and install a republic(military dictatorship) under him and his generals leadership.

Maybe the samurai retain their status or expand on it and become a class of hereditary military elites that help run the country and military. The samurai still practice their traditional sword wielding skills for mostly ceremonial reasons but also spend a great amount of time studying modern welfare, tactics, and weapons. The samurai become masters in modern weaponry and war. The army still recruits average citizens as soldiers but the generals and elite units are samurai. Maybe the samurai become the first modern special force units. I imagine a soldier skilled in close combat like samurai would be pretty useful especially later on in the 1900 century. Samurai families could even own large businesseses and companies outside of military and political service. Many major companies from Japan claim or do have samurai backgrounds. Could samurai even become involved in policing the country. Like the military they run the police forces.

Thoughts???

 

[FillyofDelphi]

So... something like the Alliance of Iron and Rye Industrialist-Junker-Kaiser Germany under Bismark's system? The Diaymo maintaining their domains under a hereditary Tokugawa, integrating the merchant class via marriages?

 

[Filo]

Oda Nobunaga is the right man, or his immediate "successor", Toyotomi Hideyoshi.
They could unite Japan by sword point and then diverge the energy of Japanese Empire toward the outer world.

I think that we shall we have a pretty modern Japan for XIX century with colonies/territories along all Pacific, maybe also in America.
With a technology not so distant from european one (they were not so good to invent things, but very better to improve; Japanese rifles were better than that XVI century European ones).

Samurai, obviously, become a military/nobility class, and continue while the state is split between a Bakufu with all powers and an Emperor with a religious role
The capital is not Tokyo, but Osaka or Azuchi.

 

[A Most Sovereign Lady]

I mean, in fairness, the samurai did a good job of keeping up with the times, and it's not like things just stayed in stasis during the bakufu, and not even all of them were killed off, a lot of them just got rolled into the British Peerage System With A Coat of Japanese Paint.

 

[Modern Imperialism]

So... something like the Alliance of Iron and Rye Industrialist-Junker-Kaiser Germany under Bismark's system? The Diaymo maintaining their domains under a hereditary Tokugawa, integrating the merchant class via marriages?

I think that is a good comparison but I imagine the samurai would hold more power then the Junkers and not be as challenged as the Junkers/Kaiser politically. The Japanese's political system usually doesn't change without a war forcing it to change

 

[FillyofDelphi]

I think that is a good comparison but I imagine the samurai would hold more power then the Junkers and not be as challenged as the Junkers/Kaiser politically. The Japanese's political system usually doesn't change without a war forcing it to change

Eh, you'll have to once Japan starts industrializing and the merchant class starts gaining more and more importance as a base of tax revenue and via their connections with the Europeans. Once people get money and education they have a nasty habit of starting to demand political rights,and while they may culturally "identify up" if granted those (in hopes of gaining the social status of their political and economic equivilents) try to hold them back and they'll start rilling up the peasentry (who as far as the establishment is concerned are their social and political kin despite the economic disparity). And they dramatically outnumber and outfund you and appeal more to European sensabilities.

The only way to gurantee avoiding this is to stall economic modernization or get the favor of the Europeans via kowtowing... which isent good prospects for pulling a Not-Meiji.

 

[Filo]

I don't think that Japan, also a modernizate one, could experience nothing like liberal revolutions. Moreover, probably, shoguns shall focus on military matters

 

[Monter]

What if Shogunate Japan modernized and survived into the 1900 century? This could be done by them winning the Boshin War or preventing it somehow. The country still industrializes and tries to expand but under the rule of the shogun. If the shogun survives by winning the civil war maybe he uses the war to depose of the emperor permanently and install a republic(military dictatorship) under him and his generals leadership.

Maybe the samurai retain their status or expand on it and become a class of hereditary military elites that help run the country and military. The samurai still practice their traditional sword wielding skills for mostly ceremonial reasons but also spend a great amount of time studying modern welfare, tactics, and weapons. The samurai become masters in modern weaponry and war. The army still recruits average citizens as soldiers but the generals and elite units are samurai. Maybe the samurai become the first modern special force units. I imagine a soldier skilled in close combat like samurai would be pretty useful especially later on in the 1900 century. Samurai families could even own large businesseses and companies outside of military and political service. Many major companies from Japan claim or do have samurai backgrounds. Could samurai even become involved in policing the country. Like the military they run the police forces.

Thoughts???

The Shogun is abolishing the office that gives him legitimacy? Sounds like a good plan to get murdered and replaced by his vassals. Anyway the Shogunate can definitely modernize but the path is going to rougher as many elements that lead to Meiji success are going to be different (the guy in charge lack the divine imperial legitimacy, the abolition of the Han system allowing strong national administration of the provinces, restructure military loyal only to the head of state, etc.) this Japan will probably be even more Prussian than otl, with all the good and bad.

 

[Modern Imperialism]

Eh, you'll have to once Japan starts industrializing and the merchant class starts gaining more and more importance as a base of tax revenue and via their connections with the Europeans. Once people get money and education they have a nasty habit of starting to demand political rights,and while they may culturally "identify up" if granted those (in hopes of gaining the social status of their political and economic equivilents) try to hold them back and they'll start rilling up the peasentry (who as far as the establishment is concerned are their social and political kin despite the economic disparity). And they dramatically outnumber and outfund you and appeal more to European sensabilities.

The only way to gurantee avoiding this is to stall economic modernization or get the favor of the Europeans via kowtowing... which isent good prospects for pulling a Not-Meiji.

Wasn't a lot of Japan industry run by political and military elites until after world war 2? How big was the merchant class in Japan? It seemed like the economic system for Japan was a oligarchy at the time. Also wasn't most industries run by nobles and former samurai families in imperial Japan? Additionally, I would imagine wealthy or highly skilled individuals marrying into powerful families. I see Shogunate Japan slowly giving more economic and individual rights as time passes but I could see them getting away with not providing a great amount of voting or political rights without too much issue. I think Japanese culture breeds more complacency and respect for status quo more so then any European nation. The only reason the emperor had to give up power is because the United States made them do it.

 

[Filo]

the guy in charge lack the divine imperial legitimac

The Shogun could have the legitimacy of the Emperor, who could be reduced to a pure religious role or a "constitutional" monarchy where the Emperor reigns and the shogun rules (obviously the shogun rules in heredity way).

the abolition of the Han system allowing strong national administration of the provinces

If the Tokugawas created a working state retaining the Hans, i belive that others Bakufus could do that.
Or sending leading adversaries to battle overseas.

this Japan will probably be even more Prussian than otl, with all the good and bad.

I agree.

 

[Modern Imperialism]

The Shogun is abolishing the office that gives him legitimacy? Sounds like a good plan to get murdered and replaced by his vassals. Anyway the Shogunate can definitely modernize but the path is going to rougher as many elements that lead to Meiji success are going to be different (the guy in charge lack the divine imperial legitimacy, the abolition of the Han system allowing strong national administration of the provinces, restructure military loyal only to the head of state, etc.) this Japan will probably be even more Prussian than otl, with all the good and bad.

If the civil war still happens in this timeline I see the shogun and his allies trying to figure out a way to depose of the emperor. They just fought a war against him. Can they honestly trust him and just let him keep existing? That could also pose a serious threat to the government and cause future conflicts. I think Prussia is a good model but with more republic like elements.

 

[Modern Imperialism]

I could see shogunate Japan becoming a mix of stratocracy and a technocracy.

 

[Filo]

If the civil war still happens in this timeline I see the shogun and his allies trying to figure out a way to depose of the emperor. They just fought a war against him. Can they honestly trust him and just let him keep existing? That could also pose a serious threat to the government and cause future conflicts. I think Prussia is a good model but with more republic like elements.

In Japan the Emperor is too a sacred figure to be abolished, imho that cannot happen without communist/something similar.
During Japanese history was, onestly, thought to abolish the Emperor but was decided that was a too important figure.

To win, a Daimyo should defeat all other ones, so the "Republic" must be similar to the English Commonwealth of Cromwell.

I retain my point: the Emperor reigns, the Shogun rules.

 

[Modern Imperialism]

In Japan the Emperor is too a sacred figure to be abolished, imho that cannot happen without communist/something similar.
During Japanese history was, onestly, thought to abolish the Emperor but was decided that was a too important figure.

To win, a Daimyo should defeat all other ones, so the "Republic" must be similar to the English Commonwealth of Cromwell.

I retain my point: the Emperor reigns, the Shogun rules.

What if the emperor dies without a male relative to takeover after his death? How big was the emperor's family at the time? I see one of the emperors trying to take power again in the future which can lead to a second civil war. The emperor helps give some legitimacy but it also gives the opponents of the shogunate someone to rally around and replace him with.

 

[Tripledot]

I could see shogunate Japan becoming a mix of stratocracy and a technocracy.

How does technocracy at all mesh with the decidedly aristocratic/feudal caste system of Edo Japan?

 

[kholieken]

Emperor family is very large. They have Branch family who have right of succession should main line fail.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinnoke

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ōke

 

[Filo]

In my opinion you should not stress to much the importance of the Emperor as governing function.
The Meiji restoration started only because of westerns menace.
A powerful Bakufu could reduce the Tenno to a pure religious role, if you wish.

 

[Modern Imperialism]

How does technocracy at all mesh with the decidedly aristocratic/feudal caste system of Edo Japan?

I see a modernizing shogunate being ok with skilled lower class people or wealthy people with no nobles/samurais background being allowed to marry into the upper class if they show valuable merit or wealth. I see hereditary aspects in government becoming less important with the growing middle class and the ability of more social mobility modern society brings. I could see noble and samurai families arranging marriages to wealthy or respected commoners to help build their own power and wealth. If this happens doesn't the hereditary aspects just become formalities?

 

[Pipcard]

I think Japanese culture breeds more complacency and respect for status quo more so then any European nation.

And why is that? It sounds like you're saying Europeans are culturally superior to Japanese people, which is one of my pet peeves.

 

[Modern Imperialism]

And why is that? It sounds like you're saying Europeans are culturally superior to Japanese people, which is one of my pet peeves.

I am not saying that at all. Being different doesn't always make a cultural superior. Europeans, Americans, and Japanese people just have a different mindset instilled and taught to them when they are born. Each of their societies have their strengths and weaknesses. Depending on your personal opinion some would argue Japanese culture respect for authority and lack of civil disobedience makes them superior. Others would argue that American society is better due to them valuing individuality. It is all a matter of preference and opinion. But the main point I'm trying to make while cultural trends aren't always definite and universal among any group they are still there. Some people and countries have different cultural values. This can not be ignored or disregarded. Pointing them out and explaining them isn't the same as saying one is better then the other.