Yes, I know, this is like the third thread on Latin American PoDs I've put up recently, but hear me out...
So from what I've been reading about the
Shining Path , they were really close to bringing down the government of Peru by the early 90s. But then, in a surprise raid in 1992, the Peruvian police capture the leadership in an apartment in Lima. Without them, the movement splintered and turned on itself, suffering defeat after crushing defeat, from which it never recovered.
But what if the raid had failed? Say, for example, a Shining Path informant in the government tipped the leaders off or something and they get away. Could it be possible that the Shining Path could actually take over Peru? What would happen after that? I expect the consequences would be quite negative for South America, and for the indigenous Peruvians in the countryside, downright hellish. How would the US react to a new, radical Maoist revolution toppling a government in the Western Hemisphere? This is right after the end of the Cold War; could we perhaps see a military intervention,
a la Somalia or Desert Storm? My knowledge is limited, but hopefully one of our Latin America experts can help me out here.