Shimabara Rebellion: Japan's Taiping

I can't see how the rebels could succeed being outnumbered 4:1.

But if they were to somehow win, a few things could happen:

Amakusa Shirō founds an Amakusa Shogunate, a Christian state. I wonder if he would kill the emperor, seeing as said ruler's claim to be a god incarnate (or something to that effect) does not mesh with Christianity.

Japan would not persecute Christians or close itself to the world, with interesting effects. I can't really speculate further... :(

It does seem to me that Shirō would not be as bad as people always make Hong Xiuquan out to be, and Christian rule would not devastate Japan. However, with Christians a minority, I wonder how long this would last without some renewed missionary efforts.
 
You might see successful missionary work if the Chrisitans are seen as liberators of the oppressed peasantry.
 

Thande

Donor
You might see successful missionary work if the Chrisitans are seen as liberators of the oppressed peasantry.

Which could conversely mean bad things for the Church in China if the Qing take this as an example of Christianity being a natural enemy of the imperial order of things.
 
Perhaps the Dutch could be persuaded to stay out or ally with the rebels on religious grounds?

(if there are a lot of Catholics involved, perhaps this can be downplayed)

IIRC the seculsion policy had just gotten started, so the rebels might be able to offer the Dutch freer trade than they already had (Nagasaki only).

An earlier POD could be that the two castles that were about to fall before Shogunate reinforcements arrive actually do fall. This could give the rebels a larger base and the success could attract supporters.
 
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