Shia peoples of the Northern Caucasus

What if, under more Persian and less Ottoman influence, the peoples of the Northern Caucasus, like the Chechens, had converted to Shia instead of Sunni Islam?
How would this affect those peoples and Russia?
 
What if, under more Persian and less Ottoman influence, the peoples of the Northern Caucasus, like the Chechens, had converted to Shia instead of Sunni Islam?
How would this affect those peoples and Russia?
Than they would be more like the Azeris. Persianer influence could be strong very far into the North with Circassians ATL also mainly Shia. Maybe a Pan- Shia sphere of influence. Maybe even South Caucasus Georgia becomes Muslim and than Shia under Persian rule. Expanding Russia might see Persia as a serious rival down South with Shia North Caucasus tribes in their doorstep calling for Persia.
 
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Khanzeer

Banned
maybe 1-2 more russo-persian wars right upto the early 20th century

alternatively they may become shia but of a different sect e.g ismaili and resent the safavi 12ers just as much

the big question is will Persia be courted by the entente in WW1 as a counter weight to ottoman empire ? rather being neutral

OR Ottoman will join entente in WW1 and Persia joining the central powers ?
 
What if, under more Persian and less Ottoman influence, the peoples of the Northern Caucasus, like the Chechens, had converted to Shia instead of Sunni Islam?
How would this affect those peoples and Russia?

Not much. If it does not butterfly away Russian Conquest of the Volga then Russia will attack the region. And pretty much face the same resistance. If the Circassians turn Shia as well then they will migrate to Azerbaijan and Persia proper rather than the Balkans and Middle East.
 
Not much. If it does not butterfly away Russian Conquest of the Volga then Russia will attack the region. And pretty much face the same resistance. If the Circassians turn Shia as well then they will migrate to Azerbaijan and Persia proper rather than the Balkans and Middle East.
We could see Circassians gainig inufluence in Persia. OTL Reza Shah had been a Circassian origin Cossack.
 
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We have a name for Shia people who live in the Caucasus. They are called Azeris. The Caucasus were the Safavids "home ground" in a sense. Due to how religious conversion and ethnic assimilation work together, groups converting to Shia Islam would be under a huge amount of pressure to become Azeris too. And if they resist assimilation, its up to their children will have to make the choice, and then their children and so on. That's the perspective an outsider would have. Being Shia and being Azeri would be seen as the same thing. It would be very difficult to untangle this type of thinking, cause it is after all partially true.

Modern day Dagestan, being one of the most ethnically diverse areas in the world for its size, IMO would be very vulnerable to this type of assimilation. TTL Dagestan would probably just end up part of an expanded Azerbaijan.

I don't know if this would work for the Chechens. It definitely won't work on the Circassians. I am not an expert on when or how Sunnism arrived to the North Caucasus. It seems to me though that the Sunni population would resist the idea becoming Shia as much as becoming Christian. You would need an much earlier POD than the Safavids.
 
We have a name for Shia people who live in the Caucasus. They are called Azeris. The Caucasus were the Safavids "home ground" in a sense. Due to how religious conversion and ethnic assimilation work together, groups converting to Shia Islam would be under a huge amount of pressure to become Azeris too. And if they resist assimilation, its up to their children will have to make the choice, and then their children and so on. That's the perspective an outsider would have. Being Shia and being Azeri would be seen as the same thing. It would be very difficult to untangle this type of thinking, cause it is after all partially true.

Modern day Dagestan, being one of the most ethnically diverse areas in the world for its size, IMO would be very vulnerable to this type of assimilation. TTL Dagestan would probably just end up part of an expanded Azerbaijan.

I don't know if this would work for the Chechens. It definitely won't work on the Circassians. I am not an expert on when or how Sunnism arrived to the North Caucasus. It seems to me though that the Sunni population would resist the idea becoming Shia as much as becoming Christian. You would need an much earlier POD than the Safavids.
Although minority tiny Shia exists in North Caucasus.
 
We have a name for Shia people who live in the Caucasus. They are called Azeris. The Caucasus were the Safavids "home ground" in a sense. Due to how religious conversion and ethnic assimilation work together, groups converting to Shia Islam would be under a huge amount of pressure to become Azeris too. And if they resist assimilation, its up to their children will have to make the choice, and then their children and so on. That's the perspective an outsider would have. Being Shia and being Azeri would be seen as the same thing. It would be very difficult to untangle this type of thinking, cause it is after all partially true.

Modern day Dagestan, being one of the most ethnically diverse areas in the world for its size, IMO would be very vulnerable to this type of assimilation. TTL Dagestan would probably just end up part of an expanded Azerbaijan.

I don't know if this would work for the Chechens. It definitely won't work on the Circassians. I am not an expert on when or how Sunnism arrived to the North Caucasus. It seems to me though that the Sunni population would resist the idea becoming Shia as much as becoming Christian. You would need an much earlier POD than the Safavids.

As far as I know the Circassians turned to Sunnism in the 16th century, just at the time the Safavids were converting Persia. But the downside, they lost Azerbaijan to military occupation of the Ottomans more than half a century combined. Avoiding the Ottoman-Safavid Wars might help the Safavids.
 
Than they would be more like the Azeris. Persianer influence could be strong very far into the North with Circassians ATL also mainly Shia. Maybe a Pan- Shia sphere of influence. Maybe even South Caucasus Georgia becomes Muslim and than Shia under Persian rule. Expanding Russia might see Persia as a serious Rivalen down South with Shia North Caucasus tribes in their doorstep calling for Persia.
By the time when the Russian involvement started, Georgia (in the modern geographic terms) was mostly under Persian control and quite a few members of the local aristocracy and even royalty converted into Islam (I assume Shia). This did not have any noticeable effect on the processor conquest. The same applies to Azerbaijan.
Which leaves the “Mountain people”, the tribes/nations who on the various stages of the Russian conquest provided the real resistance. It does not look like in the resistance to the conquest their exact religious affiliation played a greater role than geography of the region. So basically the question remains were exactly they would flee: to the Ottomans or to the Persians? For those remaining within thevRussian empire there would be no difference.
 
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