The Congo will definitely end up better off ITTL and the UAR technically doesn't exist yet. That'll be elaborated on in the next chapter.
Sheba's Sons - Haile Selassie goes to Tokyo
- Thread starter Hagre
- Start date
Apt description. To answer your question, we will be seeing him some time down the line.
Does Iraq end up joining the UAR, if it still comes to exist in this timeline?
Ethiopia has acquired Eritrea, though an autonomous state, but would it be capable of actually expanding? One of the reasons behind the 1974 Revolution was the Ethiopian government's expansion of the Ethiopian military, taking a toll on the Ethiopian economy in the early 1970s which was already dealing with the 1973 oil crisis. We don't know how that would effect Imru's Ethiopia if he goes sicko mode and tries to control the Horn, let alone East Africa, which would be hard enough.
Ethiopia is still dealing with rebuilding after World War II and the need to modernize. It wouldn't be able to pursue expansion for some time, even within the Horn of Africa. Besides, Ethiopia controls Eritrea and has little desire to expand elsewhere when it's still getting its affairs in order. Where and why would it expand?
Right on the nose. Araya and Imru are pushing through reforms but the state of the Ethiopian economy isn't exactly the best when World War II ends.
Stand Up and Stride
Stand Up and Stride
Excerpt from A History of Modern Ethiopia, 1855-1991 by Bahru Zewde
After World War II, Ethiopia was still weakened from the Italian occupation but possessed a bright future that started with the reforms instituted by Araya and enforced by Imru. Resistance by the peasantry and nobility alike hampered Addis Ababa's attempts at reform but the Imperial Ethiopian Army and Imperial Guardsmen proved instrumental in enforcing the Emperor's reforms, as could be seen in Tigray. Economic reforms instituted in November 1941 begun the process of dismantling the feudal structure of Ethiopia's various land tenure systems and American Lend-Lease assistance was helpful in the task of overhauling a moribund feudal economy. Although it would prove a costly endeavor with how much money needed to be paid back to Washington, it ultimately ended up being fruitful and gave Ethiopia a chance to modernize its overwhelmingly agricultural economy while also paving the way for Ethiopian industrialization. It provided Ethiopia with a higher crop yield annually, allowing to exploit post-war Europe's immediate situation, especially with the need for food by several European countries torn apart by the war and Araya, seemingly unknowingly, established a series of parastatal corporations to regulate Ethiopia's foreign trade [1] as a means of yielding the highest profits possible.Excerpt from A History of Modern Ethiopia, 1855-1991 by Bahru Zewde
Revenues acquired from the exports to western Europe were turned toward the construction of infrastructure to support the budding modernization project that Emperors Tewodros, Yohannes, Menelik and Haile Selassie outlined to bring Ethiopia to pace with the colonial empires surrounding her. The now destroyed road system that Italy tried to construct to consolidate its shaky hold on Ethiopia provided a basis for the newly formed Imperial Highway Authority to begin the gradual process of rebuilding them and to link all of Ethiopia to the Imperial center in Shewa. The same process was replicated for the Ethiopian railways in the eastern provinces, especially with the railway that linked Addis Ababa with the French port of Djibouti in their Somaliland colony which was superseded with the acquisition of Eritrea. Sultan Alimirah Hanfare advocated for the construction of roads and railroads stretching from Assab to Asaita, the Aussa Sultanate's capital, to Addis Ababa in that it would not only bring Eritrea further into the Ethiopian sphere but the Eritrean Afars into his domain, and profits to modernize Aussa too. Hanfare dreamed of extending the predominantly Afar Aussa Sultanate to encompass all lands inhabited by ethnic Afars and to group all Afars, inside and outside of Ethiopia proper, into an autonomous sultanate under Ethiopian rule.
Road construction in Asaita, May 1951.
Speaking of pan-ethnic nationalism, the Ogaden continued to remain an irredentist target not just for Somali nationalists but the Italian colonial administration in Mogadishu as well. The post-war government in Rome was mandated a trusteeship over Italian Somaliland to prepare it for independence, though it differed little from the previous colonial policies by Italian governments in trying to instigate conflicts between Christians and Muslims, non-Somalis and Somalis, etc. [2] so as to expand at Ethiopia's expense. Even with the UN General Assembly telling Addis Ababa and Rome to establish a border between the Ethiopians' and Somali frontier, Italy continued supporting the Somali Youth League's ambitions and subsidizing pro-Italy chieftains in the Ogaden. Nasibu, still Governor of the Ogaden, would have none of it and continued expanding the 3rd Division with reinforcements from the Central Command [3] for the demarcation of the Ogadeni frontier when he received reports of Italian penetration into the Ogaden. Ethiopian troops were to be dispatched to Kelafo, Werder, Dolobay, Godere, Ferfer and Dudub to "convince" Italy to halt its raids and financing of rebellious chieftains. Simultaneously, the ensuing purges of the SYL in the frontier had been relatively successful and negotiations started in 1955 but went nowhere were started again, especially as independence for the former colony came closer.
Despite the issues in easternmost Hararghe, the Ogaden's western regions closer to the Imperial center were much more loyal to Addis Ababa and had been since the late 1930s. The reforms issued in Ethiopian provinces to the north were quite popular here too and reminded many of Tekle Hawariat Tekle Mariam's administration, especially when Tekle was restored in his capacity as civilian governor. Similarly to Addis Ababa and Ethiopia's dense population centers, Hararghe was subject to a rigorous program of public works and national-development projects planned by the Union of Gihon. This contributed to the burgeoning industrialization taking place in the cities of Harar, Dire Dawa and Jijiga (as well as a number of smaller towns) that was partly facilitated with the arrival of "veterans" who'd manufactured Japanese arms during the Second World War and those trained at new academies opened by friendly nations like Liberia or Soviet Russia. Ethiopia's Five-Year Plan in 1957 quickened the pace, leading to provinces like Shewa, Eritrea, Hararghe and Wollo taking the lead in becoming model provinces as was planned under Haile Selassie over the course of the 1920s. However, Italian Somaliland's independence and its unification with its British counterpart to the north by July 1960 would mark a turning point in the modern history of the Horn of Africa.
The Ethiopian government was well aware of Mogadishu's refusal to adhere to the colonial frontier and its decision to dedicate itself to establishing a pan-Somali state, especially with Article V of the Constitution of the Republic of Somalia. The constitutionalization of Somali irredentism alarmed Addis Ababa, particularly the Imperial High Command who'd been preparing plans for the possibilities of a Somali invasion that included expansion of the IEA from its current number of 16,832 troops to 28,000 men by 1961. Even as Imru approved the expansion and worked with the Imperial High Command to outline more plans, Araya pursued a diplomatic solution within the framework of the Organization of African Unity and Deputy Premier Aklilu Habte-Wold [4] argued passionately that Somalia wouldn't exist without the frontiers set by the colonial powers and Ethiopia had historically controlled the Horn when Somali president Aden Daar accused Ethiopia of seizing Somali territory without considering Somali self-determination at the OAU Heads of State Summit in Cairo [5] in early 1964. However, rebellion in Eritrea, outbreak of insurgency in eastern Hararghe and blatant Somali interference in the Ogaden forced Imru's hand in February.
Mechanized IEA unit on patrol in Eritrea, September 1961.
The effects of the ethnic partition on the Unionist and Independence Blocs were immediate. The Liberal Progressive Party's pan-Tigrayan aspirations were achieved and the Muslim League was torn asunder with Araya decreeing Arabic an official language in Muslim schools but these were simply examples of the factionalization that'd come to characterize Eritrean politics. The ELF was subject to it too, though to a much lesser extent that was due to their predominantly urbanite and Muslim composition but also had the effect of isolating potential Christian support. With the assassination of Woldeab Wolde-Mariam in 1953, they seemed to be doomed to succumb to the same fate the rest of the Independence Bloc in fracturing but Ibrahim Sultan Ali would successfully take up the mantle and rally the Cairo exiles. Word was sent to their armed comrades in Tigre province to start the uprising there and Hamid Idris Awate was to command the first attacks on the Ethiopian forces there, in spite of his complaints about the obsolete equipment their few men had. Nonetheless, Awate would make do with what he had, just as he'd done under the Italians and commence attacking in early September 1961. However, it would prove a disastrous decision as the Eritrean independence movement later lamented on their failures at Adal, as well as openly accepting assistance from Egypt and rest of the Arab world.
The Battle of Adal was a decisive Ethiopian victory with what initial advantage the Eritrean force may've had in shocking the Territorial Army troops there was lost and they were brutal in their response. Awate's men were slaughtered and the veteran himself was mortally wounded in battle as the ELF fighters were forced to withdraw. The confrontation at Adal was one of many in the counterinsurgency operations which Imru ordered after learning of the ELF's increasingly Arab backing, particularly vigorous in Tigre province where Ali was from and in the Eritrean lowlands where the ELF drew its support from. This was exploited to its fullest extent, especially with the rumors that accompanied the influx of Sudanese refugees into western Ethiopia in what seemed to be Arab apartheid as Egyptian Arabs were granted land and resettled in northern Sudan - particularly in Darfur, where there was a growing insurgency over Arab rule. Addis Ababa didn't hesitate to portray the Egyptians as no different than the Europeans they claimed to oppose, for they too were pursuing land to resettle their excess population from the Nile Valley and seeking to displace the indigenous peoples without even compensating them! It was of course the rumors of the atrocities in Darfur that led to Tigreans adopting either an apathetic stance towards the ELF or even a hostile one as they were forced to consistently move through lowland Eritrea.
Ethiopian troops defending against ELF raids, September 1961.
It was much the same case in the Ogaden where an insurgency had also broken out with direct support from Mogadishu in spite of border negotiations and whatnot. Ogadeni guerrillas that were not only trained and equipped by the Somali National Army but Egypt as well begun launching attacks on Ethiopian forces in eastern Hararghe, near Wal-Wal. Suspecting Mogadishu and remembering all too well what happened the last time someone had tried to start a fight there thirty years earlier, Nasibu dispatched the 3rd Division to mete out the punishment and pursue the 3,000 or so Ogadeni guerrillas operating there. August in particular saw much frustration for Ethiopian forces, no thanks to the tendencies of Ogadeni guerrillas to attack and melt away either into the general populace or beyond the frontier with Somalia by June 1963, leading to the Imperial Ethiopian Air Force upping the ante. Air strikes launched against Galkayo and Feerfeer convinced the Somali government to start supporting the guerrillas even more as Somali forces had partook directly in blatant attacks on Ethiopian positions in February 1964, failing to force out Ethiopian troops spread over the border. It was at Gode where Somali casualties were high and PoWs admitted that they were regular soldiers of the Somali National Army as this was reported back to Nasibu's command at Jijiga, then to Araya who was so outraged at this that he declared war in the midst of negotiations.
Ethiopian mobilization was quickly underway and owing to an efficient provincial mobilization system with its roots in wartime Imperial Japan, was able to call up 20,000 men by March. The IEA swelled from the peacetime size of 16,000 men to 36,832 who were placed under the Eastern Command's control at Jijiga just as Mogadishu rushed its troops to the Ethiopian border. Ethiopian jets pummeled them ruthlessly as they were joined by Ethiopian artillery coordinating closely from Gode, Ferfer, Geladi and Domo as a defensive line was formed. It linked the area between Dolo Bay and Aware which became the main theater of the Ogaden War in those first months with the commencement of war as Nasibu also tried to focus on the defense of northeastern Ethiopia and looked into the possibility of launching an invasion of the northern Somali lands [6] after exploiting anti-Mogadishu sentiment. A plan was outlined by Nasibu and General Asfaw Wolde Giyorgis, commander of the 3rd Division, to pin down Somali forces at the border and launch an invasion of northern Somalia with the intention of seizing Hargeisa and driving to the coast to capture Berbera and Zeila to cut Somalia in half - Imru and the Imperial High Command approved it.
However, neither Nasibu and Asfaw nor the Imperial High Command anticipated the arrival of General Daud Abdulle Hirsi, the father of the Somali National Army, to the frontlines. Despite Ethiopian attempts at maskirovka, Daud saw clearly what his Ethiopian counterpart was trying to do and prepared to counteract it with a pre-emptive blitzkrieg of his own that would see a mechanized column of SNA troops seize the cities of Dire Dawa, Jijiga and Harar not just for the purpose of "reclaiming stolen Somali land" but to cripple the Ethiopian economy before its resources could be brought to bear against Somalia. It was in April that the invasion preparations were completed in time for 20,000 SNA soldiers to blitz through eastern Ethiopia with the support of hundreds of armored vehicles and artillery pieces, something that alarmed the Imperial High Command as Ethiopian units across the northeastern front started falling back. Reports starting coming in about mass encirclements, hasty retreats and a rapid Somali advance towards the city of Jijiga before the Eastern Command clamped down on it and ordered units either retreating without permission or cut off to fight on. The Imperial government issued directives for national conscription while unit after unit disintegrated in a fight to the death, buying time as millions of young men answered the traditional call to arms and fight against the "accursed Mohammedan hordes," - to stand up and stride.
An encircled Ethiopian machine gun position prepares to fight, April 1964.
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[1] This is OTL. See the following excerpt from A History of Modern Ethiopia, 1855-1991 by Bahru Zewde for more below:
"Apparently taking their cues from the Italians, Ethiopia's rulers set up a series of parastatal organizations which controlled the country's foreign trade. The first of such organizations created was the Ethiopian National Corporation (ENC). Created soon after 1941 by the Minister of Commerce and of Agriculture, Makonnen Habte-Wolde, the ENC made substantial profits from the sale of cereals to war-torn Europe in the years between the liberation of Ethiopia and the end of World War II. In 1944, its profits were estimated at £1.2 million sterling. A parallel organization, the Ethiopian Society for Commerce and Transport (popularly known as the Mahbar Bet or Self-Help Association) enjoyed a virtual monopoly of the import of cotton goods. The latter-day National Coffee Board, Livestock and Meat Board and the Grain Corporation could be viewed as successor organizations to the ENC, designed to control the three most important export commodities: coffee, hides and skins, and grain."
[2] See Toward Northeast African Cooperation: Resolving the Ethiopia-Somalia Disputes by Daniel D. Kendie for more.
[3] The Central Command consists of the standing forces and command in the provinces of Shewa, Welega and Gojjam. See The Ethiopian Army: From Victory to Collapse, 1977-1991 by Fantahun Ayalew for more on the provincial division of OTL's Imperial Ethiopian Army.
[4] ITTL, Aklilu is appointed to the Deputy Premiership and is reliant on Imru for his rise through the ranks in Ethiopian government, originally having been a member of the Union of Gihon as an Ethiopian with an education gained abroad (in France) prior to Italy's occupation and a prominent position in Imru's government as charge d'affairs to Free France after June 1940.
[5] See The Unsettled Southern Ethiopian-Somali Boundary on the Eve of Decolonization: Political Confrontation and Human Interactions in the Ogaadeen Borderland by Antonio M. Morone for more.
[6] IOTL, there were plans to defend the Ogaden and launch an invasion of northern Somalia if Somalia attempted another attack after 1964. They were respectively referred to as Operations Lightning, Wall and Bunker. See The Ethiopian Army: From Victory to Collapse, 1977-1991 by Fantahun Ayalew for more.
How did Somalia industrialize enough to wield an army capable of invading Ethiopia? It should be a David vs Goliath situation, very different from OTL and the Somali leadership would have known it to not start stuff with their northern neighbor. Also Washington wouldn't support Egypt in any Suez Crisis should it occur since they are a colonizing power. Actually how is that playing out in an Africa much more galvanized on Anti-Colonialism? Sudan should have been a rebellious nightmare for Egypt.
It’s similar to the strategy that Somalia pursued in 1977, with the intention of knocking out Ethiopia with the vast demographic and economic disparity between the two in mind. Also, Somalia technically hasn’t started anything - Araya was the one to declare war.
Not only will Sudan be a pain in Egypt’s ass but so will Yemen and that much will be elaborated on in the next chapter. As for Egypt’s perception in TTL’s Africa, it’s not exactly popular and many are coming to see that Cairo may be no different than the countries it denounces. Juwama will be particularly vocal in opposing Egypt.
You do make a number of good points so I might edit the recent chapter to make it more accurate.
That’s definitely a possibility with how the Egyptians are acting in Sudan.
I’m planning out an entire chapter that’ll revolve around the Beta Israel but I’ll give you a spoiler in two words - Solomon’s Legion.
Wouldn’t a direct annexation of Somalia cripple Ethiopia’s budding modernization and potentially lead to disintegration? Best case scenario is that Ethiopia carves out a puppet state in the former British Somaliland and supports insurgencies like OTL’s Somali National Movement to facilitate destabilization. Even then, I seriously doubt that Ethiopia would pursue any annexation of Somalia proper.
I suppose you're right; if they do, it'd be after decades of industrialisation and modernisation, and through a refurendum, perhaps, though only if the Somali people feel like it (again, a big stretch for the last part).
Again, this supposes Ethiopia would want to annex Somalia. There were already enough issues with the Ogaden IOTL and there would certainly be little to no favor for union with Ethiopia in Somalia, not after centuries of mutual hatred.
Actually, nevermind. I suppose you're right.
There were proposals in OTL in which Somali President Daar was willing to entertain the notion of joining into a federation with Ethiopia but on the clause that all Somali-speaking lands be united under Mogadishu. It probably wasn’t going to get very far, for obvious reasons.