Shattered Citadel: A worse Greman Defeat at Kursk

[lucaswillen05]

In his Channel crossing William the Conqueror was landing on a practically undefended shoreline, and with plenty of time for his troops to recover if the voyage turned a bit choppy; he was not in a situation where he needed to worry about landing highly seasick troops, whose tanks it may have been impossible to use in the assault if the seas were too rough, in front of Hitler's 'Atlantic Wall'.
Nor did William the Conqueror didn't have any airborne element to his landing to worry about strong winds or low-cloud playing merry havoc with...

First, in 1943 the Atlantic Wall was noty yet fully built. That work only really got swerious when Rommel took command im early 1944. This time the landig is most likely to be planned for September 1943 and might well not be the main show which is likely to be in Southern France (Italian invasion cancelled or reduced to a secndary operatn, perhaps near Rome) The Normandy landing at this time was planned using only 3 divisions and in TTL it might not even include airborne troops who would go to what wuld now be the main attack in Southern France. A September invasion of France with the main weight of the landings in Southern France with Italy cancelled or dramatically reduced (taking advantage of all the landinfg craft in the Meditterannean theatre fr Sicily and the originally planned invasion of Italy) would be quite feasible and culd well have been considered had circumstances changed sucjh as o take advanantage of more severe German defeats i Russia bringing about a possible German collapse situation.

While the discussion of Western Allied plans and options is interesting and has relevance at this time it delays write ups covering the developig situation in Russia which is neccessary for the further development of the timeline. I need to complete the coming German defeat a Kursk and its' impact on thee rest off the 1943 summer campaign. Then we can look at the impact as regards a Generals' plt to overthrow Hitler and Western Allied strategic decisions based on the changing circumstances. Without wanting to give too much away right now all this will tie up eventually with a radically altered coclususio to the war

 

[John Farson]

In his Channel crossing William the Conqueror was landing on a practically undefended shoreline, and with plenty of time for his troops to recover if the voyage turned a bit choppy; he was not in a situation where he needed to worry about landing highly seasick troops, whose tanks it may have been impossible to use in the assault if the seas were too rough, in front of Hitler's 'Atlantic Wall'.
Nor did William the Conqueror didn't have any airborne element to his landing to worry about strong winds or low-cloud playing merry havoc with...

Though a William the Conqueror landing "D-Day" style, with 1066 technology, would likely make for an amusing TV sketch.

 

[lucaswillen05]

15th - 17th July Kursk Salient

In heavy rain which severely limited German air support Operation Roland continued with slow German progress and strong Soviet resistence, III Panzer Korps continued their advance out of theRybinka bridgehead and IISS also made slowbut steady progress/ By July 17 the intial line straightenng exercise had been completed and Manstei was ready to initiate the next phase of Operain Roland, a driveto cross the Psel py III Panzer Corps, II SS Panzer Corps and strongly supprted by 48th Panzer Corps. Having crossed the Psel the German Panzers would drive on the city of Kursk, or such was the plan.

Sicily 12 - 17 July

Wth the destruction of the Gela Bridgehead the Allies had suffered a serious setback to their plans fr the conquest of Sicilly. US formations had to be diverted to the Briish beaches causing considerable delays to the devlopment of the campaign. The British faced very strng German resistance and even the Italans seemed to have recovered some spirit and often fought well. Heavy battles were fought around Primasole Bridge and on the Catania Plain as the Axis forces fought a bitter and often successful series of delaying actions as they fell back grudgingly towards he Etna Line. Meanwhile US troops slowly pushed west, finally retaking Gela on the 17th following fierce fighting.

Wih slow Allied progress the German assessment remained that the island could be held well into August with the available forces and no redeployment of forces from the Russian Front or the Kursk salient for the time being. This assessment, as events would show was in fact deeply flawed and would eventually create a widerr strategic crisis that, ultimately, would prove fatal for the Third Reich.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

Post-Sicily

If the Western Allies are going for southern France, they might want to take Sardinia and Corsica along the way. (That secures the sea-route and also allows them to raid western Italy if they want.)
But right now, during the Sicily invasion, they need to be discussing 'where next'?

 

[lucaswillen05]

If the Western Allies are going for southern France, they might want to take Sardinia and Corsica along the way. (That secures the sea-route and also allows them to raid western Italy if they want.)
But right now, during the Sicily invasion, they need to be discussing 'where next'?

A major POD arounfd he southern part of the Kursk salient will of course be cominng in the very near future.

A good point regarding Sardinia and Corsica but there might not be time for actual invasions. an invasion mght well point to the likelihood of an Allied invasion of Southern France and would alert the Germans too soon, Air and naval bombardment might be a better option. The Allies would also require a strategic deception plan pointing to alternative targets (Greece again and probably Italy. Another Operation Mincemeat type deception pointing to one of those targets would be considered seriously. Plus a cross channel assault into Normandy would be a good diversion from the real invasion of Southern France.

You are right that the Allies need to start thinking about this soon and they might well want to alter plans in the light of the coming German disaster in Russia, I think it might still be a little to early for such a big change in Western Allied strategy at this precise point though given the setback in the Sicilly Campaign.

 

[lucaswillen05]

18 July Kursk Salient.

On the morning of 18th July Manstein committed 23rd Panzer Division and SS Wiking to the battle in support of the German drive accross the Psel River. This move had been delayed owing to the bad weather and strong Soviet resistence.

Now, at 0300 the Germans forced a crossing of the River Psel with heavy Luftwaffe air support against strong resistence. Throughout the day however the Panzers of 48th Panzer Corps, II SS Panzer Corps and III Panzer Corps battled their way forward

In the north Operation Kutuzov continued to press forward in the Orel Salient against strong German resistence

Army Group South

Elshwere in Army Group South the Red Army launched major offensives at Izyum, south-east of he Kharkov Belgorod sector ad against German 6th Army[s positions alng the Mius from where General Hollidt reported that his forces had wihstood heavy Red Army attacks throughout the day although
sgnificant ground had been lost.

Unbeknown to the Germans strong Red Army forces were completing a magor buildup near Prokhorovka and Belgorod, a front now held by the over extended Wehrmacht infantry Divsions. The Soviets were in fact luring he German Panzer Corps operating against the south of the Kursk salient int a carefuly baited trap.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

Sardinia & Corsica

Sardinia and Corsica don't necessarily point to the south of France; they also open up the sea for landings anywhere on the west coast of Italy.
And (at least initially) it might be possible to portray Sardinia as being a 'stepping stone' to liberating Corsica.
But if after Sardinia/Corsica troops and equipment continue to build up, it's going to be obvious to the Italians and Germans that south France or Italy is next.
(The allies could put an exploratory force across the Straits of Messina into the 'toe' of Italy to suggest that it's going to be Italy...)

 

[lucaswillen05]

18 July 1943 The Kremlin, Moscow

General Rotmistrov sood in Stalin's office.

"Comrade Rotmistrov What did you do to your Tank Army" demanded the Soviet Dictator

Rotmistrov had to think quickly. his career and perhaps his very life now hung in the balance. Generals had been shot fr less.

"Comrade Stalin the SS had hundreds of Tigers and Panthers. We knew this. I planned a prepared and properly weighted counter attack with the 5th Gaurd Tank Army. We were not ready to go on the 12th. Nevertheless Comrade Cmmissar Khruschev insisted we go on the 12th even hthough the military men knew we needed at least another day to prepare"

Stalin frownedand sat back in his chair in deep thought for several minutes. Hr opemned his mouth to speak. At that precise moment the telephone rang. The Dictator picked it up.

"Comrade Stalin speaking. Comrade Vatutin? Yes. Report"

 

[lucaswillen05]

18 July Steppe Front Headquarters A short time earlier

The senior Front staff and generals including Vatutin and Commissar Khruschev were meeting to finalise the plans for operation Bagration. The pla was to mount a pincer attack of the German salient with the weight of the Steppe Front's reserves attacking the German right flank. The intent was to cut off the Panzer spearheads in the area of the Psel bridgehead and destroy them.

Owing to the bad weather of the last few days and the strog German attacks the springing of the Soviet trap had been delayed by two days and the forces involved equired aother twentyfour hours before they were fully in position before the attack which Vatuin wanted to start at 0300 20 July.

Commissar Khruschev strongly disagreed and demanded that the attack orders be issued to begin the attack on 19 July. In the same way, a few days ealier Khruschev had done the same thing wih General Rotmistrov thus ensureeing the disaster at Prokhorovka. All the me around the table were aware of the facts. Many indeed had been at that meeting.

A furious argument broke out. Commisar Khruschev pounded the table with his cleched fist.

"Attack now" he shouted"If you don't General Vatutin, I will bury you"

"Arrest that man" ordered General Vatutin.

Staff Officers near the commissar drue their service pistols and aimed them at Khruschev.

Vatutin picked up his telephone and dialled the Kremlin

"Comrade Stalin please"

Vatutin rapidly explained the circumstances to Stalin and listened briefly as the Soviet dictator gave his instructins.

"Operation Bagration will go t 0300 20 July Comrades. As ordered"

Vatutin pointed a finger at Khruschhev "Take that man out and shoot him"

Minutes later a squad of Red Army soldiers entered the conferance room and seized the protesting and suddenly frightend Commissar, dragging him from the room shouting hs protests. Minutes later a voley of shots could clearly be heard outside.

"Comrades" said Vatutin "Let us continue with the orders for Operation Bagration"

 

[Donald Reaver]

Not a good idea to let army men shoot a political commissar. I can see Stalin ordering him arrested and sent back to be shot, but he would not want army commanders getting ideas.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Stalin was had stopped shooting men for what are only modest military set-backs at this point.

 

[lucaswillen05]

Not a good idea to let army men shoot a political commissar. I can see Stalin ordering him arrested and sent back to be shot, but he would not want army commanders getting ideas.

Stalin ordered our Nikita to be shot in TTL Vatutin was merely following his orders. Following Khruschev's earlier role in the destruction of 5th Gaurds Tank Army (Rotmistrov has just explained what happened in Stalin's office. Given Khruschev's outburst it was not unreasonable for Vatutin, a Front Commander to place the Commmissar under arrest given his ouburst, theateing to "bury him" Clear insubordination given the difference in ranks

Vatutin was justfied in placing Khruschev under arres given the circumstances and then phoning Stalin. It was Stalin who ordered Khruschev o be shot immedietely. Vatutin simply carried out Stalin's orders.

I decided making this change would be a fun thing to do. Although it will not have a big impact on the outcome of immediate events it would have let us say "interesting" consequences in 1962 assuming that the Cuban Missile Crisis still occurs. With Khruschev dead a real Stalinist hard liner might well be in he Kremlin instead and making very different decisions

 

[Artaxerxes]

Though a William the Conqueror landing "D-Day" style, with 1066 technology, would likely make for an amusing TV sketch.

Can't find a decent clip but take a look at Robin Hood

Its amusing how people interpret beach landings of all era's using LSM style ships. Even the ones in LOTR look kind of similar

 

[MerryPrankster]

That certainly has some big butterflies there, even if the "broad strokes" of WWII go roughly the same way.

Bye-bye Nikita.

 

[lucaswillen05]

That certainly has some big butterflies there, even if the "broad strokes" of WWII go roughly the same way.

Bye-bye Nikita.

Except the war probably ends a couple of years early and the Red Army probably never gets into Eastern/Central Europe. If this is what happens we see a united Germany, probably no Warsaw Pact and a very different Cold War. And if a hard liner is i the Kremlin in Khruschev's place a serious probability of a nuclear exchange in 1962. The bigger Red Army victory at Kursk could well butterfly away the post WW2 world as we knew it as well as, very likely, the last two years of WW2.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Except the war probably ends a couple of years early and the Red Army probably never gets into Eastern/Central Europe. If this is what happens we see a united Germany, probably no Warsaw Pact and a very different Cold War. And if a hard liner is i the Kremlin in Khruschev's place a serious probability of a nuclear exchange in 1962. The bigger Red Army victory at Kursk could well butterfly away the post WW2 world as we knew it as well as, very likely, the last two years of WW2.

The Soviets are in a much better position to advance into Germany at present than the Western Allies, especially with the Allied landings in Sicily under threat.

And I'm thinking the Cuban Missile Crisis is going to get butterflied.

 

[lucaswillen05]

The Soviets are in a much better position to advance into Germany at present than the Western Allies, especially with the Allied landings in Sicily under threat.

And I'm thinking the Cuban Missile Crisis is going to get butterflied.

The Red Army has a long way to Berlin. If the Western Allies invade France in late summer/early autumn 1943 and Hitler is overthrown in a coup a little later the Red Army might only reach the Dnieper and perhaps restore the 1939 border. Poland, Romania, East Germany remain free. The Soviets can still invade Manchuria in 1945.

The Cold War still happens bu the borders are much further east. What happens after Stallin's death would be interesting - one of the Stalinist hard liners could very well win the power , perhaps someone like Beria who would still deploy missiles to Cuba and more willing to escalate further.

 

[aktarian]

Stalin was had stopped shooting men for what are only modest military set-backs at this point.

Well, 5th GTA impaling itself on II SS Corps is hardly "a modest military setback" and Rotmistrov was lucky to survive it. And he never held combat command after, so...... TTL with 5th GTA suffering these losses and II SS Corps continuing to advance somebody is going to answer for it.

 

[MerryPrankster]

The Cold War still happens bu the borders are much further east. What happens after Stallin's death would be interesting - one of the Stalinist hard liners could very well win the power , perhaps someone like Beria who would still deploy missiles to Cuba and more willing to escalate further.

Beria, though a thoroughly vile human being, actually wanted to end the Cold War.

And Cuba falling to Castro or some other pro-Soviet leader is not a given.

 

[lucaswillen05]

Well, 5th GTA impaling itself on II SS Corps is hardly "a modest military setback" and Rotmistrov was lucky to survive it. And he never held combat command after, so...... TTL with 5th GTA suffering these losses and II SS Corps continuing to advance somebody is going to answer for it.

The battle was certainly a severe tactical defeat for he Red Army which lost hundreds of tanks as Russian historians such as Zamulin have admitted However IOTL it did much to stop the Germans so in that respect the battle might have achieved Soviet operational and srategic aims. as we now know post war Soviet claims about the battle were false in that II SS Panzer Corps losses claimed by the Soviets were patently untrue(see Nipe etc)

However as George Nipe points out in Blood, Steel & Myth the Red Army stll had large reserve formations uncommited and these are about to become highly significant in TTL. Glantz & House also point ut the Red Army intended a magor offensive that IOTL proved unneccssary due to the German withdrawl starting coirca JUly 17. In TTL this offensive, which i have called Operation Bagration will happen.

As for Rotmistov he continued to hold a combat command until the liberaion of Minsk

In TTL however is is Khruschev who gets the blame for Prokhorova as, arguably he probably should have

5th GTA will likely partivcipate in Operation Bagration or it might go into reserve in preparation for 4th Kharkov which will very lkely still happen in some form or other.