Shattered America discussion

Hi! New guy here.

I'm working on a timeline, but I'm having trouble nailing down a specific POD. Here's my vision: the early 1800s see OTL USA divided between the United States under president Alexander Hamilton on the Atlantic coast and the Republic of Louisiana under president Aaron Burr. The Confederate States of America also appears early under Madison, but I know how that happens (although not exactly when yet).

For this to happen, there are three things that I need to happen:
  • 1791: Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and Alexander Hamilton come to a compromise on the assumption of state debts in exchange for the location of the Capitol early in the year, so Hamilton ends up going on a summer trip with his family rather than staying home. This prevents his affair with Maria Reynolds and the ensuing scandal that later ruined his political career.
  • 1804: Hamilton doesn't die in a duel with Burr. I'd like the duel to still happen and just have Hamilton wounded rather than die.
  • 1806: The Burr Conspiracy succeeds, resulting in an independent Republic of Louisiana with Burr at its head.
I feel like #1 could reasonably butterfly into #2, but not #3. I'd like things to largely stay the same as OTL up to 1806, aside from Hamilton's continued presence in the political sphere, but I feel like the actual POD in order to bring about both of these will probably need to be in the 1780s somewhere. Thomas Jefferson is probably the key, since he was involved in both the compromise and the failure of the Burr Conspiracy. I've toyed with the idea of him being at the Constitutional Convention rather than in Paris, but I'm not sure how that would affect other things, including the French Revolution/Napoleon, or how that would happen.

Ideas?
 
Jefferson can simply say no to going to France. Perhaps a PoD where his wife doesnt die but instead remains sickly and in bed, or his wife doesnt have a slave half-sister who "consoles" Jefferson meaning Jefferson is too depressed for such travel. Or since at this time Jefferson and Adams are still best of friends we see Jefferson needing to remain at Adams' insistence because... reasons.

Burr conspiracy can be successfuly though simple PoD of General Wilkinson being more competent at... anything and everything. Or William Clark did more than just some map making of Spanish forts along the Mississippi and bringing good and gold to/from New Orleans; and instead buys loyalty of key Spanish personnel in key forts. Boone family is already in future Missouri, Daniel Boone and kin can help.

Your #1 can help butterly #2, but you need a bit more of a nudge- the reason the duel happened is- Burr insulted and acted dirty against General Schuyler in their political race, Hamilton was married to Schuyler's daughter. A woman both had once courted and both had once studied and practiced law in Albany and lived at Schuyler's mansion. Hamilton felt Burr had acted dishonorable and at a party in Albany, Hamilton said so and added something we might consider the early 19th century equivelant to 20th century "your momma" jokes. Burr publicly demanded an apology. Hamilton refused saying he didnt remember saying it and wouldnt acknolwedge it happened by saying an apology. Burr and Hamilton then went to NJ and fought a duel right next to where Hamilton's own son had recently died in a duel, most likely affecting his state of mind. Many say Hamilton shot first, missed, and Burr took his time and aimed. You can nudge any of those things and make the duel not happen, or both miss.
 
If Jefferson stays home, how does that affect the French Revolution and the Jefferson Administration? Jefferson becomes less of a Francophile for sure; does this affect the US's relationship with the French Republic and Napoleon? Also, who would be a reasonable replacement for Jefferson in France? Adams could stay, but then I'd need somebody to take his place in England in 1785. My thoughts so far as results have been focused on America up through the 1830s-ish, but here we have some potential butterflies in Europe as well, depending on how similar of a job Jefferson's replacement does.
 
Is there a chain of events that could lead from Jefferson's absence in France to Napoleon selling Louisiana in 1802 instead of 1803? This would put the Corps of Discovery a year earlier, and Burr could meet Lewis and Clark on their way back on the Ohio during his first trip out west in 1805 and charm Clark into joining his cause. After reporting to Jefferson, Clark comes back out West and works to prepare the way for Burr, including recruiting the Boones (Maybe the Bowies, too; Jim was only 10 in 1806, but his dad could help, and they're already not too far from New Orleans, and I want Jim Bowie to have a big role in the Louisiana military in the 20s and 30s) and working with the Spanish Forts.
 
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