Shallow Mediterranean

Oh, yes I see this thread isn't in ASB; I don't always pay that much attention. I look at lots of threads that are in ASB, and I think some of them are consigned there for bad reasons. If this could and would be moved over there I'd be happy enough to follow it; where it is seems defensible to me though.

I've already registered my objection to characterizing things as "ASB" merely on the grounds of butterflies; people who insist on that are only paying attention to half of both chaos theory (where we get the "butterfly" metaphor from, you know) and quantum Many-Worlds theory. I think something is only strictly ASB if it defies, or at any rate might defy, physical law. Thus, DValdron cautiously placed Green Antarctica in ASB because he couldn't prove that circumpolar currents could trap summer heat in Antarctica much as OTL they trap winter cold there; rather than bog down in speculative climatology he just decreed it so, and having done that without any reasonable assurance from science that it would work, sidestepped the argument by putting in ASB. This was prudent of him, but not I think strictly necessary. The other ASB thing was also decreeing that with Antarctica not glaciated, sea levels were as OTL, meaning that there was always less water ITTL--that's how I interpreted it anyway.

The circumpolar heat trap thing may or may not make sense; it might work and if DValdron had chosen to launch in Pre-1900 instead, I'd defend his right to do so, at least until someone could spell out why a Green Antarctica is impossible. (They'd have to account for a lot of geological eras where the poles were quite temperate to do so). Declaring also that sea levels were as OTL is another assertion, but since the summer-warm Antarctic he stipulated does not depend on an unlikely chance but rather on a speculation about how climate might work, it is reasonable to grant that this is a timeline where the amount of water on Earth's surface works out to the same sea level without a lot of Antarctic ice as OTL with it. Putting it in ASB is a good way to avoid holding the thread hostage to naysayers, but it isn't ASB in the same way as say "Isle of Mann ISOTed to 1066" is. And that's a wonderful thread, some of the best threads here are in ASB--I just feel some of them are there because of a half-baked prejudice and not wanting to circle round and round the same stale argument all the time. (And then we have in the certified non-ASB fora lots of timelines just as wildly objectionable by these naysayer's favorite bugbears anyway...)

The "Butterflies! ASB!!EleventyOne%$#&!" objection, that of course the same initial conditions (stipulating that everything north of the Antarctic Circle was the same as OTL in say 100,000 BC) will nevertheless chaotically evolve into a very different future is correct for any one timeline, but it is perfectly reasonable, if the internal events leading up to a particular state were themselves reasonable and plausible, to stipulate that we are looking at one of the near-infinite number of timelines where they did happen to follow some stipulated path. For DValdron to state that until Captain Cook's expedition jogged south and found the T'salal, the world north of Antarctica proceeded exactly as ours did is especially reasonable, because we know that our timeline is possible! Therefore I wouldn't object to someone stating "just as OTL until such and such a date" provided that the people and natural systems within the range of the space and time set aside contained no divergences.

I also think it is reasonable, though more controversial, to suggest that even with some big and persistent changes, that a society might evolve on similar lines to another. It is not reasonable to expect a particular set of persons to be born at the same times and have closely analogous lives along any one timeline, but it is reasonable to pick for discussion one timeline where the chaotic variations were such that a particular trajectory of peculiar contingent aspects, such as the genetic and linguistic background of people--provided that the background was physically reasonable and reasonably probable given the conditions.

So if DValdron had the T'salal speaking Han Chinese or Xhosa or Old Norse, having evolved those in parallel in Antarctica rather than picking them up from some contingent of those peoples stranded there, that would be ASB.

However, to imagine the Han Dynasty or even the Persian Empire of Cyrus, Darius, and Xerxes in the dry-Med timeline does not strike me as ASB, provided they are suitably modified by the systematic influence that a huge desert where OTL there is a sea would have. Thus China would hardly be affected at all and it is reasonable to have it evolve as OTL at least until Abrahamic religions began having some observable effect there--Palestine is not going to be habitable ITTL, so either no Hebrews whatsoever or they need to be sent to a different Promised Land. Clearly the Persians would be more affected--at least half of Anatolia is desert as is all of the western end of the Fertile Crescent except maybe upper Egypt which is very isolated, without Caanan between them and Mesopotamia to offer a direct land bridge. (The Levant is there of course but not inhabited, or at most inhabited by tiny bands of stragglers). But nevertheless the main action of the rise of Sumeria, the evolution of rival realms among their neighbors, and the eventual rise of the Medes and Persians could happen without direct reference to the situation of the Mediterranean. Romans and Greeks are clean out--at best their ITTL alternate cousins might be found somewhere in the limits of the northern Mediterranean habitable fringe, or having diverted themselves somewhere else entirely--but presumably living in a different geography among different neighbors (and being much reduced in numbers, due either to settling in a marginal land or forcing their way in where OTL someone else was already established) their speech and institutions and genetics ought to be different, to reflect their different situation. But if somewhere in OTL Belarus a guy with a name clearly cognate to OTL Alexander is born of some king named cognate-Philip and winds up unifying the northern Acheans and sweeping down on Persia along the east coast of the Black Sea--that would be highly unlikely but no more so than any other unrecognizable history you might prefer to stipulate to placate the butterfly-worshipers.

Anti-butterflies can be our friends if we don't abuse them!
 
The reason I suggested the ASB forum has nothing to do with butterflies. It's simply because there's some rule somewhere around here which says that geographic PODs (like a Green Antarctica or a Shallow Mediterranean) belong in the ASB forum, no matter how plausible they might be.

In a world where the cultural exchange between the Mediterranean and Mesopotamia are going to be completely different, I would find an exact replica of Mesopotamia to be implausible. I would also have similar problems with an analogue (where the names are changed and dates modified slightly), unless it were very well justified and had large stretches of history which weren't exactly the same.

I think that Green Antarctica doesn't have this problem because there is no cultural exchange between Antarctica and the rest of the world. For me, DValdron makes a very good justification for why the exchanges which do happen in his timeline do not make much difference. It would be extremely difficult for the same kinds of justifications to be made to me for a shallow Mediterranean. But maybe that's just a case of De gustibus non disputandum est.
 
The reason I suggested the ASB forum has nothing to do with butterflies. It's simply because there's some rule somewhere around here which says that geographic PODs (like a Green Antarctica or a Shallow Mediterranean) belong in the ASB forum, no matter how plausible they might be.

There is not. People always bring up this supposed rule, but they can never show where it is.

Shevek23's argument is pretty solid.
 
The word of God here: http://www.spiritualist.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=2159636&postcount=15

Ian the Admin said:
Subforums exist because something generated a high volume of traffic, not simply because it was different. The site originally had about four forums. Would this new category generate 50+ posts per day? I don't really think so.

Anyway, there's no reason a geographical WI that isn't ASB can't go in the Before 1900 forum. If you have a WI set in 100 million BC, fine. It only becomes ASB if you have a massive geographical change, and then still have human civilization develop the way it did. For example, say Africa has no land connection to the Middle East... but the Romans are still around even though humans got out of Africa by foot.

If you don't like wading through the ASB forum for the more out-there stuff, well, that's a problem for anyone looking for any specialized interest within the large forums.
 
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