Shakushain's Revolt Succeeds Against the Matsumae Clan 1669

Point of Divergence ... In 1669, a chief of the Ainu people, Shakushain, led a revolt against the Matsumae clan on Hokkaido, Japan's northern most island. This was in response to the Matsumae clan controlling trade and trade relations in the Hokkaido area. When Shakushain's forces surrendered to the Matasumae clan, they were brought to a meeting with the Matsumae and were given large amounts of sake to drink, to the point where they were drunk. The Matsumae clan then proceeded to kill all the Ainu chiefs at the meeting, including Shakushain.

What if, rather than Shakushain being killed, the Ainu chiefs had been successful in defeating and driving the Matsumae clan from the island of Hokkaido? Would this have inspired the Ainu to push further into Japan and conquering more land? Or would they have enforced an isolationist policy similar to the one in force by the Tokugawa?
 
The shogun replaces the Matsumae for being possibly the most incompetent daimyo in Japanese history (Shakushain’s rebellion was not a war that was easy to lose for the Yamato).

Then he brings in a bigger army and completely crushes the Ainu. Hokkaido is very possibly formally annexed.

The shogun was still Generalissimo of the Expeditionary Force Against the Barbarians, and his ability to safeguard Japan from external threats was key to his legitimacy as ruler, especially with the emperor still existing.
 
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