Sorry for the delay !
Comments intended to be helpful
In 1900, Italy annexes Somaliland.
If this is intended to be as per OTL, they didn't - they established protectorates over the Somali sultanates
The area was not directly annexed as a colonial territory until the mid 1920s after a drawn-out war (which would certainly be necessary here, and probably even more difficult if Italy was trying to remove the local governments in 1900)
1902
The Crown Prince, Edward of the United Kingdom dies of appendicitis.
Nice and unusual divergence - I mean, its not nice for Bertie ! But its nice to see something unexpected like this
In 1905, Russia cedes the southern half of Sakhalin Island and Lushun (Ryojun) to Japan. Japan gains the lease for Liaodong Peninsula.
Probably worth mentioning that you're talking about Port Arthur here for readers who don't realise. Maybe add it to the brackets after a slash ?
Moroccan Crisis: 1905
Limited hostilities occur between France and Germany over Morocco
One kind of feels this needs a little explanation - what are "limited hostilities" ? Where are they ? Are people killed ?
Persian War: 1905-07
Reads OK to me - the British etc probably spin it as establishing a protectorate, or consolidating influence in the country, that kind of thing, but being effectively a conquest is making it clear
In 1907, Queen Victoria of Great Britain dies and is succeeded by her son George V.
Grandson, you've already killed her son
Russia and China form an alliance. France signs several trade agreements with the United States. China and France form an alliance.
Interesting, especially as to what is motivating China. Presumably the loss of Tibet to Britain rankles. Has it energised the Regency so that its going to be able to consolidate its power in China ? Getting rid of Yuan Shih-kai would be useful, or at least knowing at what point to stop pouring responsibility onto him. There are definitely able and competent Manchu princes around, and an alliance with major powers OUGHT to give them the time to undo the damage of the Dragon Empress' reign, sort out the economy etc - one assumes that Russia and France will ameliorate some of the problems from the Boxer Rebellion settlement, since it doesn't make sense for their new ally to be continually weakened by giving money to them ! But the other powers presumably will stand firm, or at least Britain (especially) and Germany will. Not sure about the USA in this timeline. Presumably Japan will too, though. Still, France's alliance with Russia saw a high level of investment, so one could assume any alliance with China will do also. Presumably France gains something in exchange - maybe expanding the territory of Kwangchowan (like the British continually expanded Hong Kong) and/or a more formal role in Yunnan though that would need to be balanced against making their new ally seem weak. Intriguing !
1907 Treaty of Lahore:
The Ottomans gain northwestern Persia (Persian Kurdistan, Persian Azerbaijan, Lorestan, Ilam, and Kermanshah). Britain gains the rest of Persia (Khuzestan, Hamedan, Markazi, Persian Baluchistan, Kerman, Fars, Khorasan, Esfahan, Semnan, Bushehr, and Qom).
Not sure, but I think the Ottomans would want Qom - its a major religious centre (Shia) and is as such something of a danger and a challenge to the Caliphate and it might make sense to have it under their control. IRRC its pretty near the Ottoman border
Britain trades the Pashtun lands of India to Afghanistan in exchange for the Baluchi lands of Afghanistan as well as a non-agression pact and economic treaties with Afghanistan. Britain agrees not to annex any Afghan lands in the future or meddle in Afghani internal affairs.
The problem with this is that if the British have just given away the North-West Frontier they have lost control of the vital passes INTO India (ie the passes go into Afghanistan the other way, but strategically they go INTO India). This would be OK-ish if Britain had made Afghanistan into a protectorate, but to effectively agree its neutrality and not to meddle in its affairs is to leave open the door to a quick Russian invasion, since I doubt Britain believes it can rely on Russia in the long-term to keep any promises it makes
One does wonder who is Prime Minister at this time ? Internal British politics MIGHT explain a crap treaty, taking the eye off the imperial ball etc...
Purely incidentally, and with no intention to have you accept any suggestions or think anything I say is gospel, this does look worth looking into. Salisbury presumably will get a boost from the Fashoda settlement but in OTL he was able anyway to hand his legacy onto his protege Balfour. However, Joseph Chamberlain may well get a greater boost than Salisbury. The latter is PM, but if Chamberlain is seen as the guy actually doing the negotiating etc, then he adds to his power. Add to this the OTL Boer War, plus a growing friendship with Germany, and one wonders whether in fact Chamberlain might succeed Salisbury ? If he does, then the alliance with Germany would be seen as his crowning achievement. The Tibet adventure would also sit well with a Chamberlain premiership, I think.
His star might fall in 1905, with fears that Britain will get dragged into a war over Morocco. He could then perhaps launch the Persian Expedition to recover his position (one would need to look into his age and health for all this; IIRC he lived til 1911 ish). Whilst this war might be a success, it could well be spun by the Liberals as being an unnecessary adventure, a step too far etc. Thus the Liberals could as historically win the 1906 election, though with less of a landslide, and possibly a different leader.
This might depend on butterflies, but Earl Spencer wanted the job of Liberal leader and hoped that Edward VII would make him Prime Minister (instead of Campbell-Bannerman). Edward VII had no such intention, despite Spencer's standing in British politics, but a George V, coming to the throne on his grandmother's death and in a second unexpected catapult to power (the first being the death of his elder brother, the second the death of his father before Victoria) might well make a different decision. Spencer's health was beginning to deteriorate and one could imagine that a treaty such as Lahore COULD be agreed by a government whose chief executive is proving not up to the job and which is therefore riven by infighting over the succession...
Addenda - ah, its a VERY old Queen Victoria in 1906 I see; you don't kill her off til the next year. She was, IIRC, a fan and friend of Chamberlain, so his losing the election and her having to invite a Liberal to be PM could combine with age, judgment, poor advice etc in the choice of Spencer if you wanted to play it that way.
In 1909, British and German forces restore Sultan Abdulhamid II to power in Istanbul after helping him crush the Young Turks. Abdulhamid II restores the 1876 Constitution.
This is another nice difference
The Anglo-Siamese Treaty is signed.
Interesting - is this an OTL treaty or does the Anglo-French hostility include much stronger provisions for British defence of Siamese interests ? IIRC Siam has lost some border territories to French Indo-China not too long ago, and probably would like them back. There's also the whole question of the loose vassalage of the Shan states in the North, whether they are British, French or Siamese vassals etc.
1910
The Portuguese First Republic is formed.
Well, sort of "formed" - it obviously requires revolution and the overthrow of the king. One wonders whether Britain might feel willing to intervene to restore him ?
On the other hand, one could perhaps see internal British politics acting against that.
Continuing my purely train of thought thingamajig on British politics, the weakness of the Lahore treaty and the upheaval in the Balkans added to the putative PM Spencer's ill health could lead to an election in 1909, especially if the Liberal 1906 majority is thin, which it might very well be in this timeline. A victory for the Conservatives could explain Britain's participation in the restoration of Abdul Hamid - one hardly expects that the party of Gladstone would ever countenance such a thing, alliance with Germany or not !
The Conservative PM could, IIRC, be Lansdowne. The whole question of who becomes PM in this period is a slightly confused one, because in Opposition a party has a leader in the Lords and a leader in the Commons, and they are theoretically equal. The party sort of chooses who it wants as PM, but the choice at this period remains the king's. Once someone has been PM its easier, as they remain de facto leader (eg Gladstone for a good while) but when they go its open to question again as to who is the senior figure. The Conservatives in this potential scenario could be split between Lansdowne (if I got that right) in the Lords and someone like Balfour in the Commons, and George V may very well ask Lansdowne to be PM
I'd need to check this out - its the problem with relying on memory and not having an internet connection at home ! But one could imagine a strong backlash in the press after Britain's participation in restoring Abdul Hamid, and this backlash preventing the government feeling able to intervene in Portugal, hence allowing the establishment of a republic there
In 1911, the Qing Dynasty in China is overthrown. The Ottoman Empire joins the Quadruple Alliance. A Chinese republic is established under Sun Yat-Sen
I thought we might avoid this, considering the formal alliances between China and Russia and France. One supposes that these alliances might have brought far less than was hoped for or anticipated and that bad feeling thus arises from them. This could then fuel internal dissent, seeing the Manchus as being unable to handle such things. Alternatively venality on the part of the European powers might explain it - if France had demanded a protectorate over Yunnan, or if Russia tries to regain its lost prestige (from the R-J War) by power-projecting into China instead. Either way, I would expect that if the Manchus are overthrown, the new regime would not be friendly to France or Russia, and may look to the USA. A small note, though, I think Sun Yat-Sen had a Japanese education in some way, and British leanings in his philosophy ? Again, I'd need to check that
1913
The Parliament of the United Kingdom passes the Third Irish Home Rule Act. Ireland becomes a self-governing Dominion
This can ONLY be passed under a Liberal administration. Continuing my vague thoughts, you could possibly get one with an election on a full-ish cycle for the Conservatives
The Conservatives HAVE TO be in power to support the Ottomans in 1909 since there's no way the Liberals would do that
The Liberals HAVE TO be in power to bring about Home Rule, since there's no way the Conservative-UNIONIST Party (to give it its full name) would do that
If the Liberals fall in 1908, rather than 1909 then this would allow the Conservatives to be bedded in by the time of their intervention in the Ottoman Empire, and for an election 5 years later to bring the Liberals to power, presumably under Asquith. If so, one would probably imagine that the Home Rule bill would be passed in 1914 since these things take time.
The question is what would cause this change ? I would guess that dis-satisfaction would a Conservative focus on foreign affairs rather than home affairs would do it, especially since all the social reforms of the Cambpell-Bannerman administration have not happened in this timeline (Tory boost from Fashoda and its knock ons would never give the Liberals til now sufficient strength to push them through). Thus social unrest could well be higher, and propel Asquith to power as the reformist Prime Minister
[i[1914
The assembly line is developped by the United States.[/i]
Only one 'p' in "developed" (don't ask me why, lol !)
In 1915, Japan joins the Alliance. President Yuan Shikai of China proclaims himself Emperor.
It wasn't clear at this point who the Alliance was - you make it clear in the 1916 post, but it needs to be clear here too. I can certainly see Yuan Shih'kai doing this, and have no problem with it being one year earlier than OTL. I do wonder though what the internal situation in China is, and whether it considers itself allied to anyone (France and Russia would be discredited as Manchu allies IMHO) or as a neutral
World War One: 1915-1916
A general war breaks out between the Alliance (Britain, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy, Ottoman Empire, Japan) and the Entente (France, Russia, Serbia) in early 1915.
I think you need to go into the 'why' here. If Britain and Germany restore Abdul Hamid in 1909 and, as you have omitted them it seems clear there are no Balkan Wars, then the Ottoman Empire under imperial control remains in possession of the Thrace-Macedonia-Albania territories. Serbia is thus a lot smaller than OTL but presumably seething with discontent.
Japan declares war on France. Japan declares war on China. Japan declares war on Russia.
Presumably Yuan Shih'kai as an emperor now thinks he can gain something by bringing life back to what should be by now a moribund alliance with Russia and France. One would guess that moves in this direction would be what might lead Japan to include China in its declarations of war (there would be little reason to otherwise)
Ottoman and other Allied forces capture Russian Armenia by late 1915. By early 1916, Ottoman and other Allied forces capture all of Georgia south of the Caucasus Major mountains and the Psou River. Allied forces invade the Crimea in the Spring of 1916. Allied forces capture the Crimea by mid-1916. In mid 1916, Nicholas II of Russia is deposed in a coup and placed under confinement. Russia halts work on the Trans-Siberian Railway. Japan occupies the northern half of Sakhalin Island, coastal Primorsky Krai (Province) and Khabarovsk Krai (Province). Bessarabia declares independence. Finland declares independence. The Mountainous Republic of North Caucasus (Kabardino-Balkaria, North-Ossetia-Alania, and part of Stavropol Krai (Province)) declares independence. The Fourth Caucasian Imamate (Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia) declares independence. The provisional government in Russia signs a peace treaty with the Alliance.
Russia definitely doesn't know when its beaten here ! But one could well put that squarely at Nicholas II's door, and see his messianic and autocratic beliefs leading to a refusal to see reality and make peace. I think he would need HOPE though, so US politics could come into this. OTL, the US press were quite friendly towards Russia and historical relations were pretty good. If the Alliance does enough to piss off the Americans, then Nicholas could hope they might come in on his side - the problem is this can't really be submarine warfare because Russia's going to have bugger all trade to sink, and France has already surrendered.
In 1916, Emperor Yuan Shikai abdicates and soon dies. The Warlord Era begins in China
Presumably war with Japan was outside his calculations and the annihilation of his putative (but not very useful allies) finishes it for him
1917 Treaty of Prague:
Germany gains the rest of Alsace-Lorraine, the Longwy-Brier iron ore field of France, the Belgian provinces of Luxembourg and Liege, the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, the Baltic region of Russia,”Russian” Poland, the Ukraine, southern Morocco, and part of French West Africa (Ubangi-Shari, Benin, Gabon, southern Chad), the northern third of Belgian Congo as well as part of eastern Belgian Congo. Austria-Hungary gains the Sanjak of Novi Pazar and Dahomey. Montenegro and Serbia become Austrian vassals. The United Kingdom gains Southern Algeria, Cote d’Ivoire, the rest of French West Africa (Senegal, Gambia, Burkina Faso, northern Chad, “Niger”, “Mauritania”, Mali), southeastern Belgian Cngo, Djibouti, all of Vanuatu, and New Caledonia The Ottoman Empire gains the Crimea, Russian Armenia, Russian Azerbaijan and Georgia. The Mountainous Republic of North Caucasus and the Caucasian Imamate become vassals of the Ottoman Empire. Bessarabia joins Romania. Finland gains independence. Italy gains Tunisia, Corsica, the County of Nice and Haute Savoie. Japan gains Hainan, the Spratly Islands, the Paracel Islands, eastern Russian Manchuria and the northern half of Sakhalin Island.
Wow...
-1- Can't see German annexation of Ukraine as they'd be fighting Ukrainians as well as Russians. Far more likely that Ukraine becomes independent as a German vassal, and Berlin makes sure that whoever is in power in Kiev is supporting its interests. Might work to establish it as a Habsburg state - Archduke Wilhelm of the Teschen line was at one stage considered as king
-2- At a stretch one MIGHT see German annexation of Russian Poland, since it meets the aims of Hindenburg etc, but in this timeline he's probably going to stay retired (he would have an extra year in that state before the war breaks out anyway). It just seems to be asking for a barrel-load of future trouble not to work with the Austrian-supported Polish Legion and stick a Habsburg on the throne of an independent vassal Poland
-3- Similarly, the Ottoman Empire seems more likely to establish a Tatar state in the Crimea and be happy with it as a vassal. The way these things work in the Caliphate though could mean it is seen as de jure part of the Ottoman Empire (like the Bey of Tunis was) but de facto independent
-4- If the Ottoman Empire annexes Georgia outright its just added a whole load of Gregorian Christians to itself. Since in annexing Russian Armenia (probably a strategic necessity) its already done this, it would seem more likely they'd be happy to see an independent Georgia under strict control.
In essence these changes would affect legal status and the way maps are drawn, but would not really affect the power of the victors, and would probably enhance it as they wouldn't be facing potential rebellions from subjects, but a matter of helping an ally keep its subjects in order
1917
Jean Baptiste Marchand, the ‘Hero of Fashoda’, a decorated WW1 veteran, and the deputy chief of defense overthrows the government of France and installs a military quasi-dictatorship. Marchand had the support of the Left and the military. Many favoured the new government. Revolts by dissenters were quickly crushed.
Another 'nice' divergence. I would imagine that in the wake of their defeat, the French military has gone somewhat the way of OTL's Russian, with soldiers councils, elected officers etc, so an alliance with the Left makes sense. (I base this in part on looking at the OTL 1917 mutinies in the French Army)
1918
The Austrian government encourages German settlement in its new terriories. The plan meets with little support.
Since its new territories seem to consist of Novi Pazar and Dahomey I'm not surprised !
It might make more sense to include the Ukraine here, as a Habsburg monarchy, an Austro-German vassal etc, and somewhere where it makes strategic sense to try and Germanise.
1918
Burma and Baluchistan are separated from India.
Why ?
1919, Alavaro Obregon comes to power in Mexico. Georgia and the Crimea are created as vassals of the Ottoman Empire.
OK, that meets with what I said. Probably then needs clarification in the peace treaty that these areas aren't ANNEXED by the Ottoman Empire but are under its control, administration etc pending a final settlement
In 1920, the R34, a British rigid airship, completes the first transatlantic flight.
I've got a good book on that
War of Slavic Independence: 1921-1923
The Poles and South Slavs of Austria-Hungary also revolt and declare indpendence
Spelling error, I'm sure you can see it
It only really makes sense for the Poles in Krakow-Galicia to do this if there is a functional Polish state, hence including what I said above about a Habsburg kingdom of Poland, independent but an Austro-German vassal would work well
By mid 1923, Serbian, Romanian, Italian, Ottoman, and German forces invade Austria-Hungary. Romania invaded first.
Piecing this together, Rumania, its prestige and power enhanced by the acquisition of Bessarabia, reacted to Hungary's declaration of independence by invading HUNGARY to seize off it Transylvania. I guess the Banat is in the Austrian half ? Can never bloody remember; if so, it would mean that Rumania is confident enough of its own power to be at war with BOTH sides in the civil war
Seeing no way to stop the collapse of her ally, as a last resort, the German Empire invades and secures the German-majority speaking areas and Bohemia. Hungary holds on to Moravia.
I can see Germany doing this but don't understand what you mean about Hungary. Do you mean it holds onto Slovakia ? Alternatively it could INVADE Moravia, but as Germany seems only really interested in the Sudetenland and Austrian Silesia (German-speaking areas) I don't see Hungary being successful against whatever Czech forces are in the field
In 1922, Germany launches the Graf Zeppelin. The Graf Zeppelin completes a round-the-world trip. The India Home Rule Act is passed by the Parliament of the United Kingdom. India becomes a self-governing Dominion.
This is going to push airship technology significantly in this timeline
I would assume that India is going to have to have played a large part in the war to gain this advantage, but actually you have left the door open to exactly that with the Treaty of Lahore. Since the 1915-1916 war pitches Russia against Britain there is no reason for Russia to abide by the articles of the treaty specific to Afghanistan - thus it invades, has control of the passes and presses into British India. This would then mean that the Indians are involved in a fierce and dangerous war. This would also explain why Baluchistan and Burmah are later separated from India - as a first step towards dominion status, promised as a reward/result for staunch fighting against the Russians in the war
1924 Treaty of Athens:
Italy gains Southern Tyrol, Istria, the Dalamatian islands. The Ottoman Empire regains Bosnia (including the Sanjak of Novi Pazar). Germany gains Austria, Austrian Silesia, Bohemia, Czech Silesia, Galicia, Carniola, and Dahomey. Hungary (including Moravia, Croatia-Slavonia, Dalmatia, eastern and central Transylvania, Hungarian Banat and northeastern Vojvodina) gains independence. Romania gains Bukovina, Romanian Banat, most of Transylvania and a small part of north north-eastern Vojvodina. Serbia gains Serbian Banat
One small note about this is to ask that when Austria gained Novi-Pazar in 1917 who was it gaining it from ? The only answer to this would be to assume that in 1908 when it annexed Bosnia-Hercegovina, Austria retained CONTROL of Novi-Pazar and that as part of the 1917 peace the Ottomans agreed to cede it fully to Vienna. There is no way that Serbia ever got hold of it in this timeline that I can see
Thus, in 1924 the door is open for the Ottomans to take it back nice and easily, and then undo the annexation of Bosnia as well
I see that Germany ended up annexing all of Bohemia, which is OK, it was often seen as a 'German' kingdom throughout history, despite speaking a different language.
I still can't see what Hungary is doing with Moravia, unless again you mean Slovakia which was in the Hungarian sphere of interest and makes far more sense.
1925
In 1925, Erwin Schrödinger and Werner Heisenberg formulate quantum mechanics. Courland, Lithuania, Austria, Bohemia, western Austrian Silesia, Czech Silesia and Rijeka are incorporated into the German Empire. The United Baltic Duchy, the Ukraine (including Ruthenia and Eastern Galicia), Slovenia, Poland (including Western Galicia, the Polish majority areas of the province of Posen, and eastern Austrian Silesia) and Belarus are created as German vassals. Italy incorporates Southern Tyrol, the Dalmatian islands and Istria. Hungary establishes Slovakia (Slovak majority Moravia) and Croatia as vassals. China builds a railway linking Xianjiang and Sichuan.
Given that this builds on the 1917 peace, I would again alter what you say there to reflect that Germany is not actually ANNEXING these territories (it wouldnt annex them then later make them independent) but is responsible for them, ADMINISTERING them pending a final settlement. However, it would make sense to have Poland established de jure in 1917 (and Ukraine as well) but perhaps only now seeing German military withdrawal and the handover of many aspects of national administration to the national authorities. This can then be built on by Berlin formally agreeing Poland's annexation of new territories created by the collapse of Austria.
An independent vassal Belarus is a nice and different touch, I like it
Hungary establishes Slovakia (Slovak majority Moravia) and Croatia as vassals
Is that what Moravia is ? I don't know. I'll check it out when I get online next
1926
The first round-the world zeppelin flight occurs
This first flight is occurring for the second time *(see 1922)
Cristero War: 1926-29
A conflict between the Church and the State in Mexico.
In 1927, a major oil field is discovered near Kirkuk,
IMHO needs an extra line break before "In 1927" as this is the only mention of the war that's been bolded. I kept looking down the lines that followed for more on it as they seemed to be part of the same segment.
In 1930, the British invent the first jet. Germany starts producing Panzer I tanks. The analog computer is invented. Italy annexes Ethiopia. Italy creates Italian East Africa out of Eritrea, Ethiopia and Italian Somalia. The electroencephalograph is invented. Southern Rhodesia joins the Union of South Africa.
Where;s this first jet coming from, I am intrigued !
I would imagine a victorious German Empire has CONTINUED to build tanks throughout the 1920s and has heavy versions in service. I guess you could say that in 1930 its inventing its first LIGHT tank ?
Need a note that Italy has to at some time CONQUER the Somali sultanates - OTL did this mid-late 1920s before invading Abyssinia
Nice touch with Rhodesia
In 1932, oil is discovered in Bahrain (UK). The Parliament of the United Kingdom passes the Burma Home Rule Act and the Baluchistan Home Rule Act, making Burma and Baluchistan, self-governing Dominions. The radio telescope is invented.
In 1933, nylon is invented. Bechuanaland joins the Union of South Africa.
Some good changes here, setting up an interesting and different world
In 1936, major oil fields are discovered near Dammam and Dhahran, Ottoman Empire. The helicopter is invented. King George V of the United Kingdom dies and is succeeded by King Edward VIII. Northern Rhodesia joins the Union of South Africa. Germany starts producing Panzer II tanks.
Always good to see Edward VIII
Again not sure what you mean about the German tanks
Spanish Civil War/Spanish War: 1936-41
A conflict between the provisional government of Spain, Britain, and Germany versus an alliance of Spanish rebels and France. In 1936, rightist rebels began a rebellion against the leftist government of Spain. In 1937, the rebels begin receiving military aid and advisors from the Entente. The Alliance begins supplying the government forces with military aid and advisors as well. The rebels begin winning more and more by 1938. The Alliance begins supplying troops to the government forces. The Entente responds in kind. The war rages back and forth for a couple years. German forces invade and occupy Equatorial Guinea and Spanish Morocco in 1939. British forces invade and occupy the Canary Islands and Spanish Sahara in the same year. By 1940, the rebel forces gaining the upperhand raid into Portugal as they put pressure on the Portuguese to join the war on their side. French forces in Madagascar raid Mozambique and are repelled by Portuguese and Alliance forces. Portugal joins the Alliance. Alliance forces invade and occupy Reunion, Mayotte, Comoros, Mauritius, and Seychelles. Rebel forces win by 1941.
By 'the Entente' do you mean France and Russia ? I'm confused as to why a Leftist France would support rightist rebels ? Wouldn't it make more sense for the Spanish dictatorship of Primo-thingy to have lasted longer in this the world of this timeline, and for the rebels therefore to be LEFTIST ? This would then have the Alliance forces aiding a monarchy/military dictatorship which seems to suit their nature better given past history.
The actual events of the war don't seem as if they need altering in any way, only the nature of the sides IMVHO of course
- - -
Its half past 4 a.m. and I've run out of steam !
Comments on the rest another time
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
