Several CSA-USA Questions in a world where the CSA wins the ACW

Let's say the Confederacy wins by some miracle, how does history take it
s course, I have a few questions that I would like to discuss with all of you


1. CSA's relations with the rest of the world
2. USA's rellations with the rest of the world
3. Civil Rights (Does the CSA ever abolish slavery and segregration, and give blacks the same light and rights as the white man, and what about the USA, without MLK, does the Civil Right's movement take longer?)
4. Does CSA-USA relations ever get to a very good place (ala Canada-USA?)
5. The CSA's impact on wars and foriegn affairs, would the CSA side with the Nazi's? and etc



thanks, and let's have some good discussion on this
 
As we have had several discussion on this subject, I would like to suggest that you use the search function to find the answers to your questions.
 
As we have had several discussion on this subject, I would like to suggest that you use the search function to find the answers to your questions.


true, but could you alest answer my questions? the search function doesen't work for me sometimes, and even when it does, it doesen't search for what im looking for
 
1) Somewhere between Pakistan's and North Korea's, depending on how much the rest of the world decides to make or not make the CSA a pariah state. It's not going to shun foreign contact, but it'd have a hard time finding it.

2) Not much different, if anything bereft of the CSA it'd rise faster, though overall it'd be a different, economically smaller society. North America relative to the rest of the world is rather different, as the USA and CSA are unlikely to have wars for the LULZ but they'd be as friendly as India and Pakistan or North and South Korea.

3) Slavery goes in the USA, but it's vanishingly unlikely to be a good place to be black. Slavery goes primarily because bereft of the CSA the slaveowners in US slave states have no real economic power left, but the CSA ain't gonna welcome them at all. The CSA will never abolish slavery, but it won't keep the plantation economy forever. It will also be more likely to fall into a military dictatorship and make partial steps to transforming into an industrial state. The USA will have a large peacetime standing army, because it'll need it to guard the US-CS border, but changes in an independently developing USA will be primarily political.

4) No. Not unless you see a lot of ATLs that move India-Pakistan or North Korea-South Korea relationships that way. This, however, does not mean perpetual war any more than North and South Korea have been endlessly fighting the last 50 years in a sustained big damn war.

5) Minimal. It would lose to the Spanish Empire and Mexico, and be re-absorbed if it ever tries to conquer the USA. About the only thing the CS Army would succeed in after the War of Secession is suppressing the slave revolts that would happen in an independent CSA. Which turn the CSA ever more into a military dictatorship and may end up with a Spanish Civil War analogue that leads to the USA absorbing the CSA back as a means to keep that war from spilling over onto US soil.

Its main impact would be indirect, as US attention is focused on the powder keg south of the border even more than IOTL.
 
1) Somewhere between Pakistan's and North Korea's, depending on how much the rest of the world decides to make or not make the CSA a pariah state. It's not going to shun foreign contact, but it'd have a hard time finding it.

2) Not much different, if anything bereft of the CSA it'd rise faster, though overall it'd be a different, economically smaller society. North America relative to the rest of the world is rather different, as the USA and CSA are unlikely to have wars for the LULZ but they'd be as friendly as India and Pakistan or North and South Korea.

3) Slavery goes in the USA, but it's vanishingly unlikely to be a good place to be black. Slavery goes primarily because bereft of the CSA the slaveowners in US slave states have no real economic power left, but the CSA ain't gonna welcome them at all. The CSA will never abolish slavery, but it won't keep the plantation economy forever. It will also be more likely to fall into a military dictatorship and make partial steps to transforming into an industrial state. The USA will have a large peacetime standing army, because it'll need it to guard the US-CS border, but changes in an independently developing USA will be primarily political.

4) No. Not unless you see a lot of ATLs that move India-Pakistan or North Korea-South Korea relationships that way. This, however, does not mean perpetual war any more than North and South Korea have been endlessly fighting the last 50 years in a sustained big damn war.

5) Minimal. It would lose to the Spanish Empire and Mexico, and be re-absorbed if it ever tries to conquer the USA. About the only thing the CS Army would succeed in after the War of Secession is suppressing the slave revolts that would happen in an independent CSA. Which turn the CSA ever more into a military dictatorship and may end up with a Spanish Civil War analogue that leads to the USA absorbing the CSA back as a means to keep that war from spilling over onto US soil.

Its main impact would be indirect, as US attention is focused on the powder keg south of the border even more than IOTL.




Wow, very very interesting, thanks :)
 
1. CSA's relations with the rest of the world


It would trade, and maintain relations, although as the world's only slaveholding nation (aside from Brazil, where it was on the way out), it's going to be hard pressed to find any nations to have good relationships with.

2. USA's rellations with the rest of the world

The US is going to dislike GB and France if they were responsible for CS independence, but that would decline over time as new generations let go and look to the future.

3. Civil Rights (Does the CSA ever abolish slavery and segregration, and give blacks the same light and rights as the white man, and what about the USA, without MLK, does the Civil Right's movement take longer?)

Slavery is dead in the US, but the CS would hold onto it for as long as possible. Perhaps the US would go for civil rights earlier to gain the moral high ground on the international stage, as well as embarrass GB and France if they back the CS (a slave holding nation) over a free one.

4. Does CSA-USA relations ever get to a very good place (ala Canada-USA?)

Not for at least 50 years. Heck, if we had an independent CS today, relations might just be beginning to cool down.

5. The CSA's impact on wars and foriegn affairs, would the CSA side with the Nazi's? and etc

Nazis might be butterflied away (or not) but I think the CS would remain largely indifferent as far as that stuff goes.
 
Unholy Mistress

A couple of people have replied and reasonably accurately probably but a hell of a lot depends on the details. For instance how does the south win? There's a world of difference between a minimal war, say because the south wins a couple of early battles and say wins early foreign recognition to one where it out-lasts the north in a war of exhaustion. Again if there is foreign military intervention, most commonly seen by the Trent Incident leading to a conflict with Britain, there's a world of difference between a short conflict after which the US realises it needs to make peace or one where it fights for 2-3 years and probably gets it's economy fairly well smashed.

All those affect the views and behaviours of both nations and others after the conflict. A long and bitter conflict drains both powers and probably means their also maintaining much larger armies for a while afterwards. Some TLs after a war involving Britain has the US trying to compete with them as well which means the north will be highly militarised and probably seriously retarded economically and socially as a result. However I think that's fairly unlikely.

If the war ended fairly quickly then slavery would probably survive in the north for a little while, presuming some slave states remain loyal. Since Lincoln would have no basis for stamping it out and there would be a fear that if he did then any such states might look to leave, possibly joining the south. However the survival of the institution would be pretty short as moral and economic feeling would be again it and probably it would be largely or totally gone within a decade.

However, as said, it would probably be pretty unpleasant being black in the north. Apart from the racism and fear of black competition there might well be some blaming the blacks for the war. On the other hand liberals would be arguing for supporting blacks against the south and there could be a lot of tension about continued slave escapes from the south.

It would still be markedly better than being a black in the south.:mad: Slavery will probably last a long while here, simply because it will be an icon of the identity of the south. You may well see some states moving to abolish or restrict it but again that leaves the question of what happens to freed blacks? It may be that the CSA might try a repatriation programme, possibly establishing their own version of Liberia in Africa.

In terms of economics the south would be primary agricultural, with some industry and other raw materials, although when oil starts becoming significant, if the CSA can last long enough that could be important. Unless it chances it's attitude on central government, which it might over time or a long independence war, it;s going to be highly dependent on imported industrial goods from Britain and probably later Germany.

The north would be markedly weaker without the south and it's resources but not greatly so unless it goes off the rails totally. [Could get some highly militarised state that falls into autocracy and economic backwardness but that is highly unlikely. More likely it would be a bit smaller and weaker than OTL but not greatly so.

The south is unlikely to attack any neighbouring states, such as Mexico or Cuba. Both because after a long war it would have little appetite for it and because neither Britain nor the US would tolerate such moves. With the CSA between Cuba and the north the Spanish-American war is likely to be butterflied. Possibly also an isthmus canal although as the Pacific coast of the US develops there will be increasing arguments for this.

Whether either states gets more involved in international politics would again depend on circumstances. The south might want allies against a new attack from the north but both slavery and the greater economic power of the north are likely to make it an unpopular partner. Whether the north will want to probably will depend on whether there has been a significant foreign involvement in the civil war. If so, almost certainly with Britain and/or France, then it would depend on how long the conflict lasted and the US reaction after their possibly heavy defeat. A period of prolonged tension with both Britain/Canada and the south might make the north seek foreign allies but it might struggle to find them unless it's also willing to make commitments, which could be politically difficult.

I think it very unlikely that you would have anyone that similar to Hitler in this TL and you could well have no WWI either. So much depends on the circumstances.

Steve


Let's say the Confederacy wins by some miracle, how does history take it
s course, I have a few questions that I would like to discuss with all of you


1. CSA's relations with the rest of the world
2. USA's rellations with the rest of the world
3. Civil Rights (Does the CSA ever abolish slavery and segregration, and give blacks the same light and rights as the white man, and what about the USA, without MLK, does the Civil Right's movement take longer?)
4. Does CSA-USA relations ever get to a very good place (ala Canada-USA?)
5. The CSA's impact on wars and foriegn affairs, would the CSA side with the Nazi's? and etc



thanks, and let's have some good discussion on this
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
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Let's say the Confederacy wins by some miracle, how does history take it
s course, I have a few questions that I would like to discuss with all of you


1. CSA's relations with the rest of the world
2. USA's rellations with the rest of the world
3. Civil Rights (Does the CSA ever abolish slavery and segregration, and give blacks the same light and rights as the white man, and what about the USA, without MLK, does the Civil Right's movement take longer?)
4. Does CSA-USA relations ever get to a very good place (ala Canada-USA?)
5. The CSA's impact on wars and foriegn affairs, would the CSA side with the Nazi's? and etc



thanks, and let's have some good discussion on this

1. CSA might have some kind of relation with Britain, but not a rosy one due to slavery.
2. A lot like OTL I assume
3. CSA abolish slavery at some point, but won't be a Civil Rights Lovefest. Segregation will stay around, and I guess there'd be some kind of peonage that replaces slavery.
4.Not sure, perhaps in time.
5. Minimal. They might join the Entente in WW1 and the Allies in WW2 (if those wars happen, butterflies in play and all that).
 
I think that if the CSA is the last country with legal slavery they would be under serious pressure to abolish it. A civil rights movement would have a difficult time achieving much success. There would be no 14th amendment.I also think that the CSA joins the Entente side during WWI. It would have a thriving trade relationship with British and France and it's ships would subject to German submarine attacks. Also Arthur Zimmerman would offer Mexico Texas. As for wWIi, the USA becomes a Pacific power. Even if the Spanish American War is butterflied away ( Which I doubt) the US takes control of Hawaii and American Somoa. So there is a Japanese attack and Hitler and Mussolini declare war the following Thursday. The CSA would find itself in the position as OTL Mexico it trade relationship with Britisn and it's massive trade ties with the US bring ships sunk by German subs and an eventual declaration of war.I think the two war time alliances and the eventual Cold War alliances creates bonds between the two neighboring nations.
 
Let's say the Confederacy wins by some miracle, how does history take it
s course, I have a few questions that I would like to discuss with all of you


1. CSA's relations with the rest of the world
2. USA's rellations with the rest of the world
3. Civil Rights (Does the CSA ever abolish slavery and segregration, and give blacks the same light and rights as the white man, and what about the USA, without MLK, does the Civil Right's movement take longer?)
4. Does CSA-USA relations ever get to a very good place (ala Canada-USA?)
5. The CSA's impact on wars and foriegn affairs, would the CSA side with the Nazi's? and etc



thanks, and let's have some good discussion on this

1) It's a difficult subject. King Cotton was in the process of abdicating and if anything the Civil War sped up the process as Britain looked to Egypt and India as alternative sources. That said, they still will have solid trading relationships all aorund the world. Really a lot depends on how much the world villifies the CSA for institutionalized slavery, and how or if they deal with it. Britain and France may well maintain positive relations with the CS just as a counter balance to the US though.

2) Since in almost any CS Victory scenario Britain and France will be leading the way in recognition, I see that souring relations between them for a long time. Though short of some insane belligerance on their part, I don't see them doing the Turtledove allince with Germany. Oh, and despite the common consenus that in a CS TL, they're preordained to get Cuba, I still see the US more likely to do just that.

3) That's the big question, that you could argue in a lot of different ways. Personally I don't see this as a merry world for blacks north or south or the border. For obvious reasons in the South, but in the North they'll likely take the brunt of the blame and instant pariahs. To say nothing of I don't see the US sheltering escaped slaves after losing the Civil War, though you'd likely see an extended Underground Railroad to Canada in operation covertly.

4) It could happen eventually assuming of course you avoind a second war. It took a 150 years or so for us to warm up to our traditional rival in Britain OTL, don't expect it to be quick or without pains though.

5) To be honest, I see the CS embracing Washington style isolationalism in regards to wars and such. Depending on how much Britain was responsible for CS independence you -could- see some sort of debt of honor being repaid, siding with Britain in a Great War style conflict. To be honest it's more likely the CS would be cozying up with British Fascists than any Nazis :p
 
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