Settler Colonies in Africa without the world wars

What colonies do you think would receive heavy European migration without the world wars? I could see Libya, Namibia, Italian Somalia, Eritrea, and maybe inland Kenya/Tanzania becoming majority European. I could also see South Africa and Rhodesia getting a higher European population. What effect to you think this would have on these areas and what groups will move there from Europe? Additionally, maybe we see a few British colonies in Africa receive a heavy number of people from India or Jews from Eastern Europe
 
What colonies do you think would receive heavy European migration without the world wars? I could see Libya, Namibia, Italian Somalia, Eritrea, and maybe inland Kenya/Tanzania becoming majority European. I could also see South Africa and Rhodesia getting a higher European population. What effect to you think this would have on these areas and what groups will move there from Europe? Additionally, maybe we see a few British colonies in Africa receive a heavy number of people from India or Jews from Eastern Europe

The European birth rate was declining even before the world wars. In order to have significant migration to an area your emigration place needs a surpluses population. And your immigration destination needs better economic Opportunities.

In most of the African colonies economic opportunities were scant. And the native population has a larger birth rate than the colonizer. Thus with out major societal change. Every colony except Libya has pretty much no chance of becoming majority European.
 
The European birth rate was declining even before the world wars. In order to have significant migration to an area your emigration place needs a surpluses population. And your immigration destination needs better economic Opportunities.

In most of the African colonies economic opportunities were scant. And the native population has a larger birth rate than the colonizer. Thus with out major societal change. Every colony except Libya has pretty much no chance of becoming majority European.

IIRC Namibia would have become majority German at some point if immigration had continued at pre-WWI levels. Since the place is so sparsely populated (only an estimated 150,000 total black people at the time of WWI and only 2.3 million total today), I find that believable.

If there is increased immigration to South Africa, the National Party almost certainly never comes to dominate politics there (They only very narrowly beat Jan Smuts in 1948; his United Party got 11% more of the vote!). Apartheid doesn’t happen, whites are probably 25-30% of the population.

Angola might be interesting. It’s very unlikely there would ever be a large amount of whites in Mozambique, but Angola has potential. The white population there increased tenfold from 1940 to 1974 when the Portuguese started really developing the place, and the metropole was quite poor and experienced more emigration between the late 1800s and mid 1900s than any other country in Europe except Ireland, so there’s a clear body of people who would be willing to move there. They’d probably have a white population of similar size to South Africa and Algeria, and potentially even more. If decolonization happens at some point, expect extrication to be a nightmare. Some of the coastal areas might stay part of Portugal and become similar to French Guiana as part of a compromise.
 
IIRC Namibia would have become majority German at some point if immigration had continued at pre-WWI levels. Since the place is so sparsely populated (only an estimated 150,000 total black people at the time of WWI and only 2.3 million total today), I find that believable.

If there is increased immigration to South Africa, the National Party almost certainly never comes to dominate politics there (They only very narrowly beat Jan Smuts in 1948; his United Party got 11% more of the vote!). Apartheid doesn’t happen, whites are probably 25-30% of the population.

Angola might be interesting. It’s very unlikely there would ever be a large amount of whites in Mozambique, but Angola has potential. The white population there increased tenfold from 1940 to 1974 when the Portuguese started really developing the place, and the metropole was quite poor and experienced more emigration between the late 1800s and mid 1900s than any other country in Europe except Ireland, so there’s a clear body of people who would be willing to move there. They’d probably have a white population of similar size to South Africa and Algeria, and potentially even more. If decolonization happens at some point, expect extrication to be a nightmare. Some of the coastal areas might stay part of Portugal and become similar to French Guiana as part of a compromise.

Why would any great power allow a forth rate contry like portagal, exclusive access to Angola's rich oil reserves? When they could cut out the middle man and take the colony for themselves.

Once oil prices start to rise in the 1970s allowing a country as weak and unimportant as portagal access to that valuable resource is unlikely to happen.
 

BigBlueBox

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Why would any great power allow a forth rate contry like portagal, exclusive access to Angola's rich oil reserves? When they could cut out the middle man and take the colony for themselves.

Once oil prices start to rise in the 1970s allowing a country as weak and unimportant as portagal access to that valuable resource is unlikely to happen.
If Britain tries to grab it the other powers will want a slice. If France or Germany try and take it Britain would probably stop them. It’s likely that Portugal would agree to share some of the oil with Britain.
 
For Angola, if you are only interested about the oil, just keep cabinda, there is basis to separate it (it was separated before the 50s, and has a single, unified Kikongo ethnic group, and ofc it shortly was independnt after the Portuguese pulled off and the independantist group has been very active since), and it has 60% of Angola's oil ressources, or about, with its current population, an oil revenue of $100,000 per capita

The place was also quite underpopulated with only 80,000 people in 1970, many of the portuguese settlers came over the past 20 years, so they didn't have too many link to the land, i think it would be easy to convince a good hundred thousand or more (from a population of 700-800k in 1974 in mozambique and Angola) to move there instead. If there isn't *too* much corruption, it would likely become very wealthy, potentially contributing to 1/3rd of portugal's exports (about 45 billion per year in oil, while portugal's are about 85 billion already). Currently IIRC there are over 20 years of reserves at the current production rate, with large scale international production having started about 15 years go. $1.5 trillion over a generation will change a lot of things for portugal, maybe not in a good way...

The place would likely attract a lot of people, wealthy white (and asian) people, who would help sustain a white majority of "legal resident", but also a shitton of african migrants, the second congo war will be especially interesting as there may be a 1:1000 difference of gdp per capita between the two bordering countries... the entire 300 km long borders will likely be heavily protected.

Then its place as a haven of wealth and stability in subsaharian africa could attract lots of investment, and be the center of many african companies, communication for exemple. If it plays its card right i don't even think it's impossible for it to surpass the mainland's GDP per PPP (by comparison with Kuwait), although at this point the possibility of independance can't be ignored, and i doubt Lisbon would want that.
 
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Why would any great power allow a forth rate contry like portagal, exclusive access to Angola's rich oil reserves? When they could cut out the middle man and take the colony for themselves.

Once oil prices start to rise in the 1970s allowing a country as weak and unimportant as portagal access to that valuable resource is unlikely to happen.

If Britain tries to grab it the other powers will want a slice. If France or Germany try and take it Britain would probably stop them. It’s likely that Portugal would agree to share some of the oil with Britain.

Well, they did allow it IOTL. The idea of Britain moving on it makes less than no sense since Portugal and Britain share the world's longest-running military alliance and national friendship. Britain would safeguard Portugal's possessions, and the area of major European colonial powers starting wars with each other to gain land outside Europe was over by the 1900s anyway.

For Angola, if you are only interested about the oil, just keep cabinda, there is basis to separate it (it was separated before the 50s, and has a single, unified Kikongo ethnic group, and ofc it shortly was independnt after the Portuguese pulled off and the independantist group has been very active since), and it has 60% of Angola's oil ressources, or about, with its current population, an oil revenue of $100,000 per capita

The place was also quite underpopulated with only 80,000 people in 1970, many of the portuguese settlers came over the past 20 years, so they didn't have too many link to the land, i think it would be easy to convince a good hundred thousand or more (from a population of 700-800k in 1974 in mozambique and Angola) to move there instead. If there isn't *too* much corruption, it would likely become very wealthy, potentially contributing to 1/3rd of portugal's exports (about 45 billion per year in oil, while portugal's are about 85 billion already). Currently IIRC there are over 20 years of reserves at the current production rate, with large scale international production having started about 15 years go. $1.5 trillion over a generation will change a lot of things for portugal, maybe not in a good way...

The place would likely attract a lot of people, wealthy white (and asian) people, who would help sustain a white majority of "legal resident", but also a shitton of african migrants, the second congo war will be especially interesting as there may be a 1:1000 difference of gdp per capita between the two bordering countries... the entire 300 km long borders will likely be heavily protected.

Then its place as a haven of wealth and stability in subsaharian africa could attract lots of investment, and be the center of many african companies, communication for exemple. If it plays its card right i don't even think it's impossible for it to surpass the mainland's GDP per PPP (by comparison with Kuwait), although at this point the possibility of independance can't be ignored, and i doubt Lisbon would want that.

I agree that this is most likely. Independence movements probably wouldn't be that much of an issue since Portugal would protect them (being that small and wealthy they could be in danger in a place as volatile as Africa if they were on their own) and the relations between them would be too intertwined...lots of Africans living in Portugal and lots of whites living in Africa. It wouldn't be in anyone's interests.
 
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