Serious no Manhattend Project

As I understand it until a calculation made by exiles scientists in Britain it had been thought that the quantity of material needed for an A bomb made it impractical as a weapon

Had this still been believed

1) How would that have changed US strategy in the Pacific War?

2) Would it have inreased the motivation for seeking a 'conditional surrender' so as not to risk increasing Soviet influence in East Asia?

3) Would there have been a conventional WW3 between 1945 and say 1970?
 
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