Series: California swing state if Dems were Populist and the GOP was moderate (Rockefeller-type)?

If the Democrats were Populist and the Republicans were liberal-centrist, how would California vote?

  • Solidly Democrat

    Votes: 2 4.7%
  • Slightly Democrat

    Votes: 11 25.6%
  • Solid Republican

    Votes: 3 7.0%
  • Slightly Republican

    Votes: 20 46.5%
  • Toss-up

    Votes: 7 16.3%

  • Total voters
    43
Perhaps if the Dems turn to the right on social issues, make the economy truly progressive and the New Deal coalition is retained and experience a far-reaching Revolution on the scale of OTL Reagan's in the chaos of the 1980 election, and the South stays Democratic.

The Republicans are the ones signing Civil Rights, and upscale blacks become their voting bloc, while downscale blacks remain Democratic. This Republican Party is environmentalist, Keynesian, supports New Deal programs, is socially moderate-to-liberal, basically the Rockefeller Republican. They retain their support for the New Deal given the NDC's vindication in the 1980s and don't implement neoliberalism.

How would California vote in this scenario?

P.S. Obviously, this GOP won't support Prop 187.
 
Last edited:
Probably Republican, as they usually for most of Californian history.

California has a history of, outside of Sino-White relations, a relative moderate position on social issues. Plus, support between big businesses and the government is California's life blood until the Internet (Can anybody say MID?), so a Republican state is guaranteed.
 
Probably Republican, as they usually for most of Californian history.

California has a history of, outside of Sino-White relations, a relative moderate position on social issues. Plus, support between big businesses and the government is California's life blood until the Internet (Can anybody say MID?), so a Republican state is guaranteed.

Agreed.
 
How about the Latino factor? I saw that many congressional districts have Latinos in the 60-80% of the districts' population in Los Angeles and Southern California. How would that affect things?
 
How about the Latino factor? I saw that many congressional districts have Latinos in the 60-80% of the districts' population in Los Angeles and Southern California. How would that affect things?

The Latino factor is interesting, it comes down to the specific positions of the parties. a GOP that was liberal on abortion and pro-business may lose votes to an economically left wing socially populist Democratic Party (which by European Standards would resemble the Christian Democratic Parties), it comes down to their immigration issues. The situation described could reduce gains due to a Liberal GOP immigration policy or both parties could in fact have similar immigration policies.
 
The Latino factor is interesting, it comes down to the specific positions of the parties. a GOP that was liberal on abortion and pro-business may lose votes to an economically left wing socially populist Democratic Party (which by European Standards would resemble the Christian Democratic Parties), it comes down to their immigration issues. The situation described could reduce gains due to a Liberal GOP immigration policy or both parties could in fact have similar immigration policies.

Let's say that both parties have similar immigration policies. Conservative blacks may still vote Democratic, for example, due to populism, and Latinos may be a solid voting bloc before the immigration issue comes up. This makes them non-reactionary, though are very, very socially conservative (think Christian Evangelicals).

It could be interesting that the Republicans are strong in the Bay Area and other urban areas without sizable Latino majorities while the Democrats are strong in Los Angeles and rural areas.

Edit: Now I realize that this TL's GOP is more like the New Democrats of our TL.
 
Top