Serbian invasion of Albania

say During the Kosovo war pre NATO bombing some kind of incident occurs or to cut arm smuggling Serbia invades Albania

How far could they advance into Albania

what would be the international reaction

how would the Serbs treat the catholic and orthodox Albanians
 
Well, if Serbia invaded Albania, then it might as well be motivated to commence a grand invasion on all former Yugoslavian states in order regain 'glory'. Plenty of bloodshed would occur in the Balkans and Serbia would be condemned as a violent regime similar to Saddam Hussein's Iraq, Idi Amin's Uganda, Muammar Gaddafi's Libya and North Korea. Sanctions would certainly be in place and Serbia's only allies would probably be Russia and Belarus (but even then, the support is publicly restrained). Yugoslavia had a pretty hostile relationship with Albania through the 20th century, so I doubt the Serbs will be kind to the Albanians, to say the least. Concerns would grow as Serbia utilizes ethnic cleansing in it's conquests (admittedly, it is somewhat justified against Croatia for what happened in WW2). It will be a long conquest, with plenty of NATO bombings, but Serbia would eventually come on top. A new bloody regime that would be determined to 'unite' the Southern Slavs no matter what. Afterwards, the new Yugoslavia may set it's sights on Bulgaria, but that would provoke a much more hostile response. NATO would certainly intervene to save Bulgaria's sovereignty, and return independence to the countries that Serbia previously invaded. NATO would certainly win and the Balkans are restored back to normal. But independence would probably be granted to Kosovo, Montenegro and maybe even Vojvodina. Little leniency would be granted for Serbia and trials would be put in place for government officials and individuals linked to the ethnic cleansing. So yes, much would be changed if Serbia invaded Albania.
 
Concerns would grow as Serbia utilizes ethnic cleansing in it's conquests (admittedly, it is somewhat justified against Croatia for what happened in WW2).

Umm, no. There were many Croatians that fought against the Ustashe regime.

Also, there is a difference between an understandable (albeit a reprehensible) and visceral emotional reaction in response to historic trauma, and 'justified genocide' (which isn't a thing, btw). Plus most of the participants in ethnic cleansing that were Serbs did not have family that were victims of the Ustashe. The Croats had been demonised in Serbian media, therefore killing them was seen as collective revenge for collective guilt.
 
Umm, no. There were many Croatians that fought against the Ustashe regime.

Also, there is a difference between an understandable (albeit a reprehensible) and visceral emotional reaction in response to historic trauma, and 'justified genocide' (which isn't a thing, btw). Plus most of the participants in ethnic cleansing that were Serbs did not have family that were victims of the Ustashe. The Croats had been demonised in Serbian media, therefore killing them was seen as collective revenge for collective guilt.
Very true, indeed.
 
Umm, no. There were many Croatians that fought against the Ustashe regime.

Also, there is a difference between an understandable (albeit a reprehensible) and visceral emotional reaction in response to historic trauma, and 'justified genocide' (which isn't a thing, btw).

That is true. While the trauma of surviving the Ustashe regime played a role in the war crimes committed by the Serbian side, ethnic cleansing simply isn't justified. In this or any other case.

But I assume this isn't ArtisticCritic's actual opinion and he just phrased it in a rather poor way.
 
say During the Kosovo war pre NATO bombing some kind of incident occurs or to cut arm smuggling Serbia invades Albania

How far could they advance into Albania

what would be the international reaction

how would the Serbs treat the catholic and orthodox Albanians

I doubt that they have the ressources to do so. Maybe the unrest in 1997 Albania escalates into a fullblown war ? Or Macedonia ( a former Yugoslavian Republic and generally Serbia friendly) joins forces with Serbia and they form a alliance to quell the KLA. Macedonia had it´s own ten day war with KLA in 01´.
 
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The Invasion of Albania by Serbia, say in March 1997 when various Albanian arms depots are being opened/broken into to try and cut down on arms smuggling would be the perfect casus beli for Western intervention and would make Japan's decision to strike Pearl Harbor look brilliant in comparison, which is probably why they didn't do it in OTL.

However if they decide to pull the trigger in 1997 (a move which would take an immense amount of stupidity and support from Russia), Albania's in shambles so I think they'd be able to advance fairly quickly. The only way they could really sell it would be to claim that they're trying to "restore order" in Albania by replacing Berisha's government with something more palatable and conducive to peace in the region. There's also some historical precedent for Serbia adopting pro-Christian rhetoric when interfering in Albanian affairs with the short lived Republic of Mirdita standing out as a notable example. However in spite of their relatively painless invasion and attempts to justify it, the Serbian army would quickly find itself under attack from NATO air forces and Albanian partisans. After all, in many ways the Albanian army and people had been preparing for a Yugoslavian invasion from 1945. Albanian terrain is a partisan's dream and unlike WWII, 1997 Albanians are more than willing to forego set-piece battles in favour of guerrilla warfare. Yugoslav morale would crumble faster than it did in OTL and I'd wager the fighting would be over before the end of 1997.

I'd imagine that there would be an attempt to solve Kosovo in a similar way to how it was in OTL, however TTL's situation would be even more complicated due to the situation in Albania. In OTL the unrest in 1997 brought the country to the brink of civil war. In TTL the Serbian invasion might escalate tensions even further especially if Berisha tries to rally the Albanian people around the flag in March. Such actions would play well in the North but would be disastrous in the South and would make things even worse. Add into this the fact that Greece would likely seek to intervene in such a situation to "safeguard" the Greek minority in Southern Albania. A peacekeeping mission to Southern Albania may well be necessary in TTL in addition to the one in Kosovo and may lead to the creation of a Southern Albanian state. This in turn would likely lead to Tirana experiencing a massive drop in population as the post-1992 arrivals return to the cities and villages from whence they came. If Albania is partitioned the former capital likely becomes an incredibly cool ghost town, but a ghost town nonetheless.

As Southern Albania contains most of the country's oil reserves and some of the best tourist destinations (Vlora, Saranda, Gjirokaster, Berat, the Blue Eye, etc.), it has the potential to develop quite quickly if unshackled from the Northern part of the country (IMO the South is basically the economic engine of the country as it now stands). In OTL there are plans to expand the old military airstrip outside of Saranda to facilitate tourism once the restrictions surrounding the reconstruction of Mother Teresa International Airport outside Tirana have been lifted. Without said restrictions in TTL due to a very different situation I see no reason why an airport wouldn't be constructed in TTL there or near Vlora to boost tourism. If the proper leaders can take power, Southern Albania might be able to find itself in a substantially stronger position than OTL, economically and politically. On the other hand, Northern Albania would be in even worse straits than OTL, particularly if the Catholic minority remains hostile due to the events of 1997, and would struggle to survive as an independent state. I wouldn't be surprised at all if it begins to look towards Kosovo for political and cultural leadership given the existing historical trends. These developments of course would make any kind of reunification incredibly difficult.

Serbia/Yugoslavia is an entirely different kettle of fish and would likely be just as messed up if not more.

TL;DR: A Serbian invasion of Albania in 1997 would be a colossal mistake and would likely turn the region into an even bigger mess than OTL.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
I am very unsure about any sort of NATO action any time soon after the invasion for weeks, even months.
NATO is not an offensive alliance, but a defensive one. The political wrangles leading up to the limited air operations first in Bosnia then later Kosovo were massive and delayed intervention. There would need to be a big WHY as to why NATO would want to intervene. Maybe individual countries instead of NATO but again there would need to be a reason sellable to the public behind this.
 
I am very unsure about any sort of NATO action any time soon after the invasion for weeks, even months.
NATO is not an offensive alliance, but a defensive one. The political wrangles leading up to the limited air operations first in Bosnia then later Kosovo were massive and delayed intervention. There would need to be a big WHY as to why NATO would want to intervene. Maybe individual countries instead of NATO but again there would need to be a reason sellable to the public behind this.

Given that in OTL there was immense guilt over the delayed response to Bosnia and Rwanda and in TTL there is a very clear blatant act of aggression by the Serbs, I don't think there will be nearly as much hand wringing as in OTL. Granted it will take some time to mobilize and sell the operation to the public but a blatant Serbian invasion is going to simplify things considerably.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
Given that in OTL there was immense guilt over the delayed response to Bosnia and Rwanda and in TTL there is a very clear blatant act of aggression by the Serbs, I don't think there will be nearly as much hand wringing as in OTL. Granted it will take some time to mobilize and sell the operation to the public but a blatant Serbian invasion is going to simplify things considerably.

I just can't see it. This is pre-Kosovo and look how much convincing Clinton took to commit to the Balkans. Europe didn't want to intervene and when it did before it was only partial and they got their fingers burnt. If the Serbs aren't ethnic cleansing and it's a straight up invasion, even unprovoked, sanctions and hallow words will be the order of the day.
 
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