Assume for a moment the Russian Government is entirely preoccupied by a internal crisis in the summer of 1914. So distracted the Austrian/Serbian affair cannot be considered. As I understand it this largely waives away any chance of German. France. & Britain weighing in & any Great War starting that summer or autum.
So, how does the Austrian/Serbian confrontation play out that year?
1. Is there any chance the Austrians will take military action because they can?
2. How likley are the Serbs to continue resistance into the winter in the hope of eventual intervention?
3. Do Rumania, Bulgaria, or Greece haven any residual territorial or other issues that would bring their participation against Serbia?
4. How bad would a Russian government or social crisis have to be before there was no chance of intervention by the following winter?
5. Are there any other nations that might intervene in a decisive way on the Serbs side?
Any links to discussions of this subject are eagerly solicited.