Serbia unsupported in 1914

Rading the last few pages suggests to me that:

If Russia does not eventually intervene in 1914, & if consequently a broader European war does not develop that year, then not much will be resolved. Ethnic and social tensions will remain volatile, I suspect the economy of the region less rational or unevenly developing. So, in 1915 the same regional & international dynamic or condition could still exist to create general European war. What exactly would it take to reduce significantly the possibility for 1915?

A. If Serbia suffers a severe enough defeat ?

B. Austrian suffers a severe enough defeat ?

C Russia remains distracted by whatever problem sidlined it in 1914?

D. Other ?

A Serbian defeat is probably the best outcome - an Austrian defeat would prime the pump for more revisionist ambitions amongst Austria's neighbours. Most likely outcome might be along the historical one - the Austrians drive into Serbia but can't finish it and the war bogs down, with Russia becoming more and more agitated.
 

JAG88

Banned
Assume for a moment the Russian Government is entirely preoccupied by a internal crisis in the summer of 1914. So distracted the Austrian/Serbian affair cannot be considered. As I understand it this largely waives away any chance of German. France. & Britain weighing in & any Great War starting that summer or autum.

So, how does the Austrian/Serbian confrontation play out that year?

You pretty much need a revolution in Russia for that, not unlikely.

1. Is there any chance the Austrians will take military action because they can?

Well, if your neighbor orchestrates the murder of the heir to the throne...

2. How likley are the Serbs to continue resistance into the winter in the hope of eventual intervention?

It would be a bloodbath, the Serbs had been merrily killing Albanians and they would be out for blood, same for the Bulgarians, the Serbians might try but it would just make things bloodier.

3. Do Rumania, Bulgaria, or Greece haven any residual territorial or other issues that would bring their participation against Serbia?

Bulgaria is in head first, the 2nd Balkan war happened when Russia allowed Bulgaria to be gangbanged by all its neighbours, so expect Sofia to cut a deal with the Turks and join the trashing of the Serbs, expect some ethnic cleansing in Macedonia.

Serbia and Bulgaria defined their territories before attacking Turkey on the 1st Balkan war, after the war the Serbs refused to hand over the lands assigned to Bulgaria so the latter mobilized, the Russians were the guarantors but failed to pressure the Serbians to fulfill the treaty and even went to the Romanians and told them that they would not oppose them if they attacked whomever ended up being the aggressor in a hypothetical Balkan war... then they went to the Serbians and told them not to move first under any circumstances.

Then Romanians, Turks and Greeks joined in bashing the Bulgarian piñata (the Greeks signed a secret treaty with Serbia to screw the Bulgarians).

4. How bad would a Russian government or social crisis have to be before there was no chance of intervention by the following winter?

1906?

5. Are there any other nations that might intervene in a decisive way on the Serbs side?

Nobody, if the Russians dont move they are done. They had a pact with the Greeks but they would have to be foolish to jump in to get pasted along Serbia.
 
1. The Austrian Offensive vs Serbia in 14 is a disaster, humiliation, total screw up. See A Mad Catastrophe.

2. No matter what the crisis in Russia short of a war that requires Russian mobilisation in Europe and the dispatch of Russian forces out of Europe ( which did not happen in the Russo Japanese war) a significant Austrian Force has to guard against the Russians.

3, Both Italy and Romania have irredentist claims vs Austria.

4. If the Great Powers stay out - apart from presumably resupply if their favoured nation its a race between the Serbs and Austrians running out manpower and someone behaving like a typical balkan nation of the time and backstabbing someone.

5. At which point the Powers intervene and probably try to limit the damage to Austria.
This on pint #1 so hard, the Serbs would have beaten the Austrians, humiliated them, and then Europe would have smelled blood and threatened Austria to stand down. At that point, Germany, with no "1914 fever", the confidence OTL of quick victory (since Austria lost) wouldn't back austria and would tell them t get out of the situation following years, Bosnian Serb nationalism is at its highest peaks and in Vojvodina, and salves the world around are being supported by Apis' organization, where Apis, definitely not executed, is now a hero. Serbia probably has permission to do some adventurist things like invade Albania a bit earlier too.

As for Austria, the Czechs and Serbs would be the main poles of resistance. Losing to Serbia wouldn't lose them Great Power status, but would dent them until they were just a loose confederation kept together by German meddling.
 

JAG88

Banned
Rading the last few pages suggests to me that:

If Russia does not eventually intervene in 1914, & if consequently a broader European war does not develop that year, then not much will be resolved. Ethnic and social tensions will remain volatile, I suspect the economy of the region less rational or unevenly developing. So, in 1915 the same regional & international dynamic or condition could still exist to create general European war. What exactly would it take to reduce significantly the possibility for 1915?

A. If Serbia suffers a severe enough defeat ?

B. Austrian suffers a severe enough defeat ?

C Russia remains distracted by whatever problem sidlined it in 1914?

D. Other ?

I would expect Serbia to be reduced to a rump state the size of Montenegro after Bulgaria and Albania are assigned the bulk of former Serbian lands as AH at one point considered.

Bulgaria takes Serbia's place as the Balkan troublemaker, they had just won a large piece of the Balkans and increased their population, and they still had scores to settle with all their other neighbors, Romania, Greece and Turkey. I think they would have tried to get closer to the CPs in order to ensure no repeat of the 2nd Balkan war and protection from Russian resentment, while at the same time try to take advantage of any chance to increase its territory.
 
I remember the Serbian Army suffered a epidemic in the winter of 1914/15. A quick search failed ti turn up details. Anyone have info on how bad this was, and if the Austrian Army suffered from anything similar that winter?
 

BooNZ

Banned
This on pint #1 so hard, the Serbs would have beaten the Austrians, humiliated them, and then Europe would have smelled blood and threatened Austria to stand down. At that point, Germany, with no "1914 fever", the confidence OTL of quick victory (since Austria lost) wouldn't back austria and would tell them t get out of the situation following years, Bosnian Serb nationalism is at its highest peaks and in Vojvodina, and salves the world around are being supported by Apis' organization, where Apis, definitely not executed, is now a hero. Serbia probably has permission to do some adventurist things like invade Albania a bit earlier too.

Without Russia intervention, the Serbian military of circa 300K is up against an A-H military of circa 3 million - do the math
 

BooNZ

Banned
I remember the Serbian Army suffered a epidemic in the winter of 1914/15. A quick search failed ti turn up details. Anyone have info on how bad this was, and if the Austrian Army suffered from anything similar that winter?

http://entomology.montana.edu/historybug/wwi/tef.htm

At the start of World War I Serbia numbered some 3 million people. Within six month 500,000one in sixdeveloped typhus fever. Over 200,000, 70,000 of them Serbian troops, died from the disease. One half of the 60,000 Austrian prisoners also died from typhus. The Serbs were unable to cope. The few existing hospitals were soon full to overflowing and others had to be improvised within building which often lacked sanitary provisions of all but the most primitive order. There were practically no nurses. There were no beds, no linens, and no medicines for almost all of the victims who had to make provide themselves what medical care they could. There were less than 400 doctors in the country, many of them under the colors. Almost all of them contracted the disease, 126 fatally. Eventually there were hardly enough grave diggers left as they too fell victim.

Through February and March the epidemic flared up with a speed and violence never equaled in any typhus outbreak for which there is a reliable record. In Aprilwhen it reached its peakthe new cases per day ran at 10,000 per day, 2500 of whom were admitted to the military hospitals alone. The mortality rate ranged from 20% at the beginning and end of the epidemic to 60-70% at its height in March and April.For six months Serbia was politically and militarily helpless. A ripe plum ready to be picked, but Austria did not attack again. Austrian strategists knew better than to enter Serbia while the epidemic raged. General Typhus, while scourging the Serbian population, held the border.

The Central Powers lost six months during the most critical time of the war. It is anybody's guess as to the effect that this delay may have had on the early Russian and even the Western campaigns. It is at least reasonable to believe that a quick thrust through Serbia at the time -- with its effect on Turkey, Bulgaria, and Greece; the closing of Salonia and the establishment of a southwestern front against the Russian might -- have tipped the balance in favor the then very vigorous Central Powers. Typhus Fever may not have won the warbut it certainly helped by denying the Central Powers the Balkans at a critical juncture. Typhus quickly established itself along the entire Eastern Front, but was kept from reaching epidemic proportions in either the Austrian or German lines by the energetic delousing of the troops. Though it penetrated into he prison camps of Central Europe, the disease was successfully prevented form spreading to the civilian population.
 
Thanks. Thats worse than I'd thought, as Typhus was one of the worst for the circumstances. So if this war drags on into winter odds are this epidemic will occur, & has the potiential to decimate the Austrian army as well if it reaches deep into Serbia.

If the war has ended before the epidemic starts then Serbia will still be set back & suffer some economic/social costs from it in 1915.
 
Without Russia intervention, the Serbian military of circa 300K is up against an A-H military of circa 3 million - do the math

Alright

Serbians: 500,000 (they mobilized that much over the course of the war)
Austrians: 3 million

Result: 3,000,000 dead austrians

;)

For real there's plenty of evidence the Austrians wouldn't mobilize the whole army (stupid and economically ruinous for a state already with financial problems). The Foreign Minister and war ministry wanted a "localized" war and would mobilize the southern divisions. They would outnumber the Serbs, probably 2-1. And just like real life, lose.
 
This partial mobilization seems to be the case. A quick look at the Westpoint Atlas of WWI has a brief note that theintial Austrian mobilization was vs Serbia only & deployed just two armies plus a hefty reserve. That was changed midmobilization when Russia started mobilization. This seems to have confused the Austrian mobilization briefly.
 

JAG88

Banned
Alright

Serbians: 500,000 (they mobilized that much over the course of the war)
Austrians: 3 million

Result: 3,000,000 dead austrians

;)

For real there's plenty of evidence the Austrians wouldn't mobilize the whole army (stupid and economically ruinous for a state already with financial problems). The Foreign Minister and war ministry wanted a "localized" war and would mobilize the southern divisions. They would outnumber the Serbs, probably 2-1. And just like real life, lose.

Did AH outnumber the Serbians? IIRC B-Group's 12 divisions went back to Galicia shortly after arriving, leaving only the Balkan Group's 10 divisions against the Serbians. Anyway, those 22 divisions plus the Bulgarians would be more than enough.
 
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