Making Sense of the Senseless: The Great American War at 100
"...unhappy; despite the posting being very explicitly a promotion for his talents in the field, Lenihan nonetheless would have preferred to finish the job with the men he had fought with since the start of the war rather than being sent to the ruins of Washington to command a push deeper into Virginia. In his view, he had been exiled to the secondary, more difficult front of the war because Pershing was Bliss's favorite, and Liggett's failures needed to be cleaned up.

Military scholars generally disagree with Lenihan's presumption that the men of Army Command Ohio were better trained, disciplined and commanded, but it is true that by June 1915 the now-reconstituted Army Command Potomac was exhausted after brutal fighting to clear Maryland of Confederate soldiers, get over the Potomac River, and then its frequent stalemates around the Occoquan, ending with the near-defeat of the whole army at Quantico in February. Over the following three months the Eastern Front had stabilized into a grim stalemate, with a handful of failed offensive jabs by Lejeune's frontline forces against Yankee divisions but little in the way of major movement. Lenihan thus walked into a situation where he had a rested and recovered force in a difficult but not untenable position north of the Occoquan, and decided to press ahead with plans developed by Liggett before his departure.

The ACP, while it did not enjoy the resources that the "first front" in the Confederate Midlands would, did have one boon, which was considerably more air power. The Army had been spooked by sabotage in occupied Kentucky and Tennessee of aircraft by Irregulars and thus had limited what would be made available to Pershing's coming offensives considering the heavily losses that Billy Mitchell's Army Air Corps had taken; no such concerns existed with airships and airplanes launched from Maryland across the Potomac, allowing for coverage across the frontlines and the safety of US territory to return to. Lenihan thus made a few adjustments to the plan for an offensive in early July, moved it forward for late June, and gave the order.

On June 27, 1915, a massive aerial bombardment rained down across the Confederate trenches behind the Occoquan, and Mitchell's fighters attacked supply trucks, suspected horse barns, and other juicy targets behind the lines. As this was being paired with clustered artillery strikes, the main force of Lenihan's men, under the dogged Ed Wittenmyer, confounded Alexander Dade by pushing ahead out of Winchester (rather than Middleburg) not southwest towards the Shenandoah, as the Confederates suspected and had prepared for, but southeast, into hilly terrain separating the town from Warrenton which was crawling with Confederate defenders but was difficult to establish full trench networks on.

The Warrenton Campaign lasted a little less than a month, and introduced Lenihan to the kind of grinding, brutal combat the East had become accustomed to; he observed that it was like a Nashville engagement every day. Supported by landship fire once clear of the Chester Gap and bringing this armored cavalry, with a fair amount of traditional horse troops, south from Middleburg to collapse Confederate positions, the ACP ground slowly along, with a day maybe earning the men as little as a hundred feet at a time. Warrenton was 70 kilometers from Winchester and 30 from Middleburg, hardly great distances to modern people, but an extremely difficult churn at the time as Dade's forces desperately shifted off of the trenches on the Occoquan to avoid getting cut off from behind.

The successful capture of Warrenton on July 18th essentially forced Dade's hand on the matter; Warrenton lay behind the Occoquan and commanded high ground from which American artillery, combined with the type of relentless aerial attacks from Maryland, could decimate his supply lines or even set up his armies to be surrounded and destroyed in detail. Dade gave the order even before Warrenton was in American hands to fall back upon pre-pared defenses around Stafford and to the main defenses below the Rappahannock near Fredericksburg, regarded in part as the key to the entire front. Lenihan, not one to cease pressing his advantage, ordered his exhausted men to push forward, but fresh Confederate soldiers repulsed them first at Bealeton and then at Remington, preventing what would have been a potentially disastrous crossing of the Rappahannock, and they were dealt another bloody nose near Stafford as Dade's men successfully executed a fighting retreat that rescued much of the Confederate artillery and ammunition stores and got them across the river to Fredericksburg with minimal losses.

On paper, this was similar to previous campaigns - the Confederates doled out disproportionate casualties and then pulled back to prepared defenses (and there was little defensive ground in Virginia better than at Fredericksburg) before their numerical disadvantage overwhelmed them. Lenihan's severe losses in pushing to Warrenton and forcing the abandonment of the Occoquan Line by Dade was similar to previous bloody victories earned by the United States. However, circumstances in Richmond had changed drastically. The new ascendancy around Thomas Martin and the pressure upon the new Army Staff Office to perform was not keen to listen to excuses and was horrified that much of northern Virginia had just been abandoned, and thus Dade - since the beginning of the war the Confederate point man on the Eastern Front - was unceremoniously cashiered and replaced by his more aggressive lieutenant, Lejeune. The desperation after the Black May now required offensive victories or holding the line; Fabian strategies were no longer an option..."

- Making Sense of the Senseless: The Great American War at 100
 
Well, the Confederates are very desperate and are bound to be a lot more suicidal in the field. More meat for the Yankee meat-grinder.
 
Random thoughts
It's funny, I could see *both* French and German military observers in the USA troops, the interactions between the two would be *interesting*...

I wonder who is going to be viewed by history as having a higher death count Leopold II in Belgium, or the Belgian prince who was the guest of the Mexicans at Los Pasos.

The confederates still have a larger Navy than the Chileans did after their big defeat. Not sure who has more coastline though.

I'm *still* not sure iOTL what the best example of "X defeated Y, including severe damage to many of Y's cities and has absolutely *no* interest in putting Y back together again.


Consider this altered paragraph from the Paraguay War...


There was destruction of the existing state, loss of neighboring territories and ruin of the Confederate economy, so that even decades later, it could not develop in the same way as its neighbors. The Confederacy is estimated to have lost up to 69% of its population, most of them due to illness, hunger and physical exhaustion, of whom 90% were male, and also maintained a high debt of war with the axis countries that, not completely paid, ended up being pardoned in 1992 by the American President <Insert Name>. A new pro-American government was installed in Richmond in 1917, while the Confederacy remained occupied by US forces until 1921, when Mexico formally recognized the independence of that country, guaranteeing its sovereignty and leaving it a buffer state between its larger neighbors.

(I know it doesn't all work, but same sort of feeling as I expect post GAW, and I'm not sure which will be physically larger in 1921, Mexico or the CSA)
 
Man, Dade was running circles around the Americans...and now he's gone. I predict (not exactly going out on a limb) that Lejeune won't have anywhere near as much success.
 
No no no you don't get it. Our superior Anglo-Saxon values will shatter those mongrelized hordes!

AH! Now I get what you're saying. Perhaps our previous defeats have only stemmed from a lack of will on our part - and a strong, aggressive push - lead by a true General and Gentleman - should be enough to reverse our previous defeats and put us in Philly by Christmas!
 
AH! Now I get what you're saying. Perhaps our previous defeats have only stemmed from a lack of will on our part - and a strong, aggressive push - lead by a true General and Gentleman - should be enough to reverse our previous defeats and put us in Philly by Christmas!
It does lead to the question as to whether the Americans have renovated(?) the Confederate trenches that they have taken so as to allow them to help keep the Confederate pushes from getting too far. And if so, how far behind the front are they continuing to maintain them. (for example, are the trenches in Maryland or on the Susquehanna being maintained).
(Note, the Author has faked us all out, the Red Summer that he mentioned is the US Army blood from the successful Confederate push back to the Susquehanna and the Ohio)


It does also lead to the question, would the CSA government accept a peace with the borders Status Quo Ante at this point.
 
AH! Now I get what you're saying. Perhaps our previous defeats have only stemmed from a lack of will on our part - and a strong, aggressive push - lead by a true General and Gentleman - should be enough to reverse our previous defeats and put us in Philly by Christmas!
In all honesty I kind of get it. The ~3% chance that a general offensive works for the CSA is the only real chance they have to alter the trajectory of the war. Even though it will most likely fail miserably, they have to at least try.

Sitting in their trenches and playing defense won't work any more after 5/5. So what if they kill a hundred thousand more Americans, the USA isn't going to stop or settle unless the equation drastically changes.
 
In all honesty I kind of get it. The ~3% chance that a general offensive works for the CSA is the only real chance they have to alter the trajectory of the war. Even though it will most likely fail miserably, they have to at least try.

Sitting in their trenches and playing defense won't work any more after 5/5. So what if they kill a hundred thousand more Americans, the USA isn't going to stop or settle unless the equation drastically changes.
And don't forget, Lejeune is the guy who brought them Quantico Wood, where the CSA not only regained ground but did so while inflicting much higher casualties than they suffered. In the context of trench warfare, this is like rolling a nat20 and having the dice bounce off the wall, dislodge a chunk of drywall and reveal a lost fortune in Krugerrands. They can't be blamed for thinking of him as a miracle worker.
 
Will the US use its navy and marines to stage rear areas raids on Confederate infrastructure or supply guerrillas? Are the British and other European states studying the weapons and tactics of the American War?
 
And don't forget, Lejeune is the guy who brought them Quantico Wood, where the CSA not only regained ground but did so while inflicting much higher casualties than they suffered. In the context of trench warfare, this is like rolling a nat20 and having the dice bounce off the wall, dislodge a chunk of drywall and reveal a lost fortune in Krugerrands. They can't be blamed for thinking of him as a miracle worker.
This is definitely context that’s important - in the eyes of an ASO already undergoing a housecleaning since the Thanksgiving Massacre, Dade has done nothing but retreat since he got Patrick’s job after Susquehanna, and Lejeune has proven himself something of a unicorn so far. Why not roll the dice, as @Curtain Jerker says?
Will the US use its navy and marines to stage rear areas raids on Confederate infrastructure or supply guerrillas? Are the British and other European states studying the weapons and tactics of the American War?
Yes and yes
 
Will the US use its navy and marines to stage rear areas raids on Confederate infrastructure or supply guerrillas? Are the British and other European states studying the weapons and tactics of the American War?
As far as I can tell, the following is true about the Naval situation.
1) The US Navy did *not* escape the Battle of Hilton Head unscathed. (from the Infobox) Of the five Dreadnoughts that went into the battle, 3 were severely damaged. Of the four pre-dreadnoughts , one was scuttled and two were severely damaged. Of their 12 armored cruisers, 3 were sunk and 4 were severely damaged.
2) The Battle of the Florida straights (in which the Confederacy's last Dreadnought, the Arkansas, will be lost) occurs about 3 months after this battle.
3) The British while requiring neutral shipping to be respected, won't do much if the US gives 1 hour notice to ships, puts marines ashore to blow up everything they can, has them leave and then blow up what's left with ship guns. Rinse, Lather, repeat.
4) The Author hasn't said much about Guerillas. While there are some islands with significant plantations, that's a different situation than having groups that would be organized enough to drop things off with. The Author also hasn't talked much about internal dissent in either the USA or CSA, (as opposed to Mexico) and certainly nothing organized enough to put together a resistance movement.
 
This is definitely context that’s important - in the eyes of an ASO already undergoing a housecleaning since the Thanksgiving Massacre, Dade has done nothing but retreat since he got Patrick’s job after Susquehanna, and Lejeune has proven himself something of a unicorn so far. Why not roll the dice, as @Curtain Jerker says?
Patrick retreated, replaced by Dade.
Dade retreats, replaced by Lejeune,

Will history repeat itself with Lejeune?
 
As far as I can tell, the following is true about the Naval situation.
1) The US Navy did *not* escape the Battle of Hilton Head unscathed. (from the Infobox) Of the five Dreadnoughts that went into the battle, 3 were severely damaged. Of the four pre-dreadnoughts , one was scuttled and two were severely damaged. Of their 12 armored cruisers, 3 were sunk and 4 were severely damaged.
2) The Battle of the Florida straights (in which the Confederacy's last Dreadnought, the Arkansas, will be lost) occurs about 3 months after this battle.
3) The British while requiring neutral shipping to be respected, won't do much if the US gives 1 hour notice to ships, puts marines ashore to blow up everything they can, has them leave and then blow up what's left with ship guns. Rinse, Lather, repeat.
4) The Author hasn't said much about Guerillas. While there are some islands with significant plantations, that's a different situation than having groups that would be organized enough to drop things off with. The Author also hasn't talked much about internal dissent in either the USA or CSA, (as opposed to Mexico) and certainly nothing organized enough to put together a resistance movement.
Florida Straits is in the box for an imminent update, speaking of
Patrick retreated, replaced by Dade.
Dade retreats, replaced by Lejeune,

Will history repeat itself with Lejeune?
Almost certainly
Ok, so, we are in June/July - or in the middle of the year of 1915.

Should we be expecting any more Hurricanes in the future. 1915 seemed to be the worst year. Depending on how you interpret the weather @KingSweden24
I try to stick to OTL weather if it’s worth mentioning. 1916 was a pretty gnarly hurricane season to that will have big impacts on the war
 
I try to stick to OTL weather if it’s worth mentioning. 1916 was a pretty gnarly hurricane season to that will have big impacts on the war

The war is still going that far into 1916?
Thats....more shocking than I imagined.

Know its still going when the new COnfederate President is inaugurated, but I'm curious to see how it will effect Hughes' re-election or whoever gets elected in 1916.
 
The war is still going that far into 1916?
Thats....more shocking than I imagined.

Know its still going when the new COnfederate President is inaugurated, but I'm curious to see how it will effect Hughes' re-election or whoever gets elected in 1916.
The much less industrialized, sans allies, and totally blockaded CSA of 1861-65 held out for four years at a time when the advantages for defenders in battle were much smaller than with 1915 tech. They were never going to get simply railed by the US
 
The war is still going that far into 1916?
Thats....more shocking than I imagined.

Know its still going when the new COnfederate President is inaugurated, but I'm curious to see how it will effect Hughes' re-election or whoever gets elected in 1916.
This is what makes Vardaman’s Presidential transition, inauguration and first cabinet meetings so fascinating for me. This is an ultra hardliner whose about to be catapulted into the realization that his country and its way of life are doomed. I do wonder if he even survives his Presidency.

In fact this situation is somewhat reminiscent of the OTL film Downfall about Hitler’s inner circle in the final days of the Battle of Berlin.
 
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