Britain is sending convoys under armed escort to Italy? How soon does this spill off to open war? Of course I short of half expect this...

Also if this is a free for all with Austrian and French submarines in the Mediterranean the other big merchant marine around is Greece. Athens can't be all that happy with French and Austrian boats sinking their ships...
 
Just a note on the Zionism update - the plural of kibbutz is kibbutzim.
Nope, the plural of Kibbutz is Socialism. :)

For the *most* part hebrew words ending in consonants are masculine and add "im" (kibbutz -> kibbutzim), and those ending in -a/-ah or -at will end in -ot. (menorah -> menorot and Shabbat -> Shabbatot), Exceptions of course, and Hebrew like many Semetic languages has *some* use of a dual (a different form of the plural if there are two, but that tends to be restricted to time, numbers, body parts and things that naturally come in a pair.
And considering that the language has no concept of capital letters, designating an acronym is different...
Speaking of Acronyms,
Ze'ev Jabotinsky, who ended up as the first commander of Irgun *should* be bouncing around Europe at this point.
 
This might sound more than a little weird but in this timeline I'd suggest you might see a bit of a divided levant internally that externally shapes a lot of events if it stays within the Ottoman empire.

For example, if I where to guess what might the capital Palestine/Israel/Transjordan ect my guess would be Zarqa, founded as a village by Chechen refuges it exploded in population after the Ottomans created the Hejaz railway to allow easier Haj and gain more control over the Arab provinces. As a ''new'' fairly diverse city with a direct connection to Istanbul I think the Ottoman's might favour it as a administrative capital if they keep control of it. Given Zarqa's the second biggest city in Jordan today it's not that hard to imagine while less prestigious than Jerusalem.

Possible events, it is known that a lot of land Jewish immigrants often was from absentee landlords, those landlords tended to be elites from Syria. The legal status of land in Palestine/Israel might seem a bit small but could certainly determine the way a lot of Arab elite through their weight behind the Ottomans or against them. That and agrarian issues leading to development of political parties is pretty common so the people in the levant could serve as a national/political awakening

Sinai/Jerusalem, while Egypt's confirmed to go it's own way for a long period of time the people of the Sinai a lot of them being bedouins tended to follow their own ways and cross the borders. Could lead to tensions forming between Egypt and the Ottoman empire/levant.

That being said, the current Levant provinces of the Ottoman empire looks far different from the OTL who knows how the chips may fall.
 

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- Battleship: The First Arms Race
The confrontation in the central Med, whenever it happens, should be the first naval battle TTL where aircraft play a significant combat role. Should have major repercussions for naval tactics and strategy. Has anyone built an aircraft carrier yet? If not, that'll definitely change quickly. I'd imagine France in particular would get on that with urgency, since Italy has a lot of territory they can launch planes from aimed at sinking French supply convoys bound for Suez.
 
The confrontation in the central Med, whenever it happens, should be the first naval battle TTL where aircraft play a significant combat role. Should have major repercussions for naval tactics and strategy. Has anyone built an aircraft carrier yet? If not, that'll definitely change quickly. I'd imagine France in particular would get on that with urgency, since Italy has a lot of territory they can launch planes from aimed at sinking French supply convoys bound for Suez.
The GAW was mainly between powers that had direct land connection so I think naval aircraft development beyond ASW patrol is basically the same as OTL 1914, though by 1918 the British were planning carrier strikes on German bases in Belgium IIRC.
 
Speaking of Jews and Zionism, they are probably going to be unrecognizable compared to OTL sans the holocaust. I wonder instead of Israel, a Federal Republic of Levant or a one state with Jews and Palentinians in equal footing formed instead?
With the CEW unlikely to change Russia's boundaries, I think Russia remains with more than half the world's Jews. I'm not sure that much ittl pre 1914 changed the situation relative to the Jews (I'm not sure where the boundaries in eastern Europe are different). Sure you'll still have similar migration to the USA (the idea of Fiddler on the Roof being written ittl is quite reasonable).

So other than Ottoman troops being caught between the arriving Jews and the Arabs that were already there instead of the British, I'm not sure much changes.
What I haven't seen in that regard is whether Egypt has slipped from Constantinople's grasp the way that it did iOtl.
 
The confrontation in the central Med, whenever it happens, should be the first naval battle TTL where aircraft play a significant combat role. Should have major repercussions for naval tactics and strategy. Has anyone built an aircraft carrier yet? If not, that'll definitely change quickly. I'd imagine France in particular would get on that with urgency, since Italy has a lot of territory they can launch planes from aimed at sinking French supply convoys bound for Suez.

Historically in OTL WWI there was the seaplane tender that had seen combat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seaplane_tender#First_World_War as both side had more advanced aircraft than OTL WWI due to the lateness of the war and the lesson of GAW we can have slightly more advanced tenders but i doubt full aircraft carriers at this stage
 
Well they will not the only one to ask the question, letting the dreadnought go with even attempt something will really make Regia Marina look extremely bad, expecially after the army had achieved the Miracolo of the Piave, frankly i see the admirals having reasonable fear that their budget will be transferred to the army...even more with the Austro-French blockade. Frankly by 1920 the message for the admirals will be to lift their warm ass from the desk and do something otherwise their next job will be in a coal mine with the role of pack mule and all the nice ship demolished to use their material for something more usefull as razor blade
Yeah there’ll definitely be some Army vs. Navy disputes in a number of CEW belligerents. Though nothing as bad as what went on in Brazil during the GAW
How much corporatism are we gonna see going forward?
Decent amount I think, it’s a natural economic format for Integralism after all
Britain is sending convoys under armed escort to Italy? How soon does this spill off to open war? Of course I short of half expect this...

Also if this is a free for all with Austrian and French submarines in the Mediterranean the other big merchant marine around is Greece. Athens can't be all that happy with French and Austrian boats sinking their ships...
Good point on Athens - I’d forgotten how much of a massive merchant marine they have in Greece
Speaking of Jews and Zionism, they are probably going to be unrecognizable compared to OTL sans the holocaust. I wonder instead of Israel, a Federal Republic of Levant or a one state with Jews and Palentinians in equal footing formed instead?
I don’t think enough Jews will decamp for the Levant to make equal footing (at least in terms of demographics and political influence) possible. In theory, Levantine Jews already enjoy rights under the Ottomans
This might sound more than a little weird but in this timeline I'd suggest you might see a bit of a divided levant internally that externally shapes a lot of events if it stays within the Ottoman empire.

For example, if I where to guess what might the capital Palestine/Israel/Transjordan ect my guess would be Zarqa, founded as a village by Chechen refuges it exploded in population after the Ottomans created the Hejaz railway to allow easier Haj and gain more control over the Arab provinces. As a ''new'' fairly diverse city with a direct connection to Istanbul I think the Ottoman's might favour it as a administrative capital if they keep control of it. Given Zarqa's the second biggest city in Jordan today it's not that hard to imagine while less prestigious than Jerusalem.

Possible events, it is known that a lot of land Jewish immigrants often was from absentee landlords, those landlords tended to be elites from Syria. The legal status of land in Palestine/Israel might seem a bit small but could certainly determine the way a lot of Arab elite through their weight behind the Ottomans or against them. That and agrarian issues leading to development of political parties is pretty common so the people in the levant could serve as a national/political awakening

Sinai/Jerusalem, while Egypt's confirmed to go it's own way for a long period of time the people of the Sinai a lot of them being bedouins tended to follow their own ways and cross the borders. Could lead to tensions forming between Egypt and the Ottoman empire/levant.

That being said, the current Levant provinces of the Ottoman empire looks far different from the OTL who knows how the chips may fall.
What was the opinion of local Arabs towards absentee Syrian landlords?
The confrontation in the central Med, whenever it happens, should be the first naval battle TTL where aircraft play a significant combat role. Should have major repercussions for naval tactics and strategy. Has anyone built an aircraft carrier yet? If not, that'll definitely change quickly. I'd imagine France in particular would get on that with urgency, since Italy has a lot of territory they can launch planes from aimed at sinking French supply convoys bound for Suez.
The GAW was mainly between powers that had direct land connection so I think naval aircraft development beyond ASW patrol is basically the same as OTL 1914, though by 1918 the British were planning carrier strikes on German bases in Belgium IIRC.
It’s early enough in the war that countries are probably leery of clearing dread decks of guns to launch planes from, but older obsolete battleships maybe?
With the CEW unlikely to change Russia's boundaries, I think Russia remains with more than half the world's Jews. I'm not sure that much ittl pre 1914 changed the situation relative to the Jews (I'm not sure where the boundaries in eastern Europe are different). Sure you'll still have similar migration to the USA (the idea of Fiddler on the Roof being written ittl is quite reasonable).
Yeah, Russian Jews will probably be along with US Jews the biggest demographic there
So other than Ottoman troops being caught between the arriving Jews and the Arabs that were already there instead of the British, I'm not sure much changes.
What I haven't seen in that regard is whether Egypt has slipped from Constantinople's grasp the way that it did iOtl.
Egypt is tighter with Constantinople than OTL, but not to the extent of a full Vilayet
 
What was the opinion of local Arabs towards absentee Syrian landlords?
Believe a mix of anger and increasingly contempt? The former came from the decades of neglect and selling the land they worked on generations to immigrants , which both mixed with xenophobic feeling towards outsiders as well towards those Syrians. The contempt though came from feeling besides they where out of touch a small wave of modernisation spread from Syria proper into the area.

By that besides increasingly wealthily though still poor majority of people now had greater income as well as agency, rather than relying on a intermediary to deal with the proper Ottoman authorities it became increasingly easier to contact them directly.
 
Steel Typhoon: The Oriental Theater of the Central European War
"...general assumption that any engagements would be at sea, where the French enjoyed a decisive advantage; the German Kaiserliche Marine was determined to maintain their vessels in port as a fleet in being in Kampong Som in Cambodia and their smaller operating base at Davao which allowed them to project power across the Carolines and towards the southern islands of the German East Indies. The French strategy was the opposite: aware that they could easily annihilate the Ostasienflotte (OAF), particularly if they could defeat the Cambodian and East Indies squadrons in detail, as it became clear in late March that war was on and Germany was now a global enemy to the French, a rapid land campaign was the better move.

The German position in Cambodia was officially a protectorate rather than an outright colony, though most of Cambodia's bureaucracy, schools and hospitals were governed by Germans and the military's chief generals were generally of German or half-German descent. Since the Bangkok Crisis of 1892, Germany had viewed Siam less as a client state and more as a direct ally, and the simple realities of geography suggested that a war with France would be focused primarily towards Cambodia, with France presumed to be likely to want to avoid drawing Siam directly into what they hoped to be a quick conflict. As such, since the turn of the century, the Germans had constructed a network of fortresses and prepared defenses along the main route from Saigon to Phnom Penh to guard against the most obvious axis of attack. Following Vietnam's May Rebellion, which France had successfully crushed but which had shaken confidence in the French Orient, German assumptions were further that the outbreak of war would likely spark another revolt of Vietnamese sepoys, particularly in Tonkin.

Germany could not afford to be arrogant in the Orient, and their "presumptive defenses" were costly. On April 2, 1919, the French Foreign Legion and Indochinese Corps - under the command of May Rebellion hero Paul-Frederic Rollet, who since 1917 had deftly though unofficially transitioned control of the French Orient away from the civilian bureaucracy to his staff - invaded Cambodia, but not along the Saigon-Phnom Penh Road or from the border city of Tay Ninh with its grand fortress. Instead, Rollet had cleverly devised a plan in the months before the war to instead attack the left flank of German defenses, with one division launched across the Srepok River on Cambodia's northern border, and two others attacking from Buon Ma Thot. This attack would be aimed at the open country east of the Mekong, largely undefended, and rapidly march to the river. As German colonial forces were pulled out of the defenses to defend against this incursion, a secondary attack would be launched from Saigon and Tay Ninh, smaller than what would have been thrown at the German line without the northern feint. This plan, while a bold gamble, wound up working much better than expected - the French armies advanced in three days the full one hundred and sixty kilometers to the Mekong in the northern sector, and on April 6, an attack of four divisions with artillery and air support struck west from Tay Ninh, managing to curve behind the German defensive line and forcing a scrambled, haphazard retreat. On April 11, a French flag was raised over Phnom Penh, as the royal family was evacuated by railroad to Kampot and the city's defenders retreated in a hurry southwards towards the naval station at Kampong Som.

The initial success of this campaign, overrunning eastern Cambodia and taking the capital in nine days, gave Rollet two options. He could either consolidate his position in Phnom Penh and demand a surrender of King Yukanthor as a peer and a return of French hegemony over Cambodia while securing villages in the vicinity of the Tonle Lap, or he could continue his gamble and strike south towards either Kampot or Kampong Som to, in his own words to civilian governor Albert Sarraut, "drive the Germans into the Gulf of Siam." Sarraut asked Rollet to wait for instructions from Paris, particularly as he was concerned of Siamese intervention directly in the conflict if the French armies should move westwards; Rollet, not wanting to cede the initiative, grew tired of waiting on April 16 and marched south, leaving half his army behind in Phnom Penh to guard the city and splitting his remaining force, with half aimed at Kampong Som and the other at Kampot.

This endeavor was almost immediately a failure; the elite Royal Guard of Cambodia was lying in wait on the Kampot Road and ambushed their Vietnamese enemies at Angk Ta Saom, about seventy kilometers south of Phnom Penh. The forces aimed at Yukanthor in Kampot were Rollet's sepoys rather than his better-trained French colonial forces or Foreign Legionnaires, and they were routed despite outnumbering the Cambodians; the battle on April 18 ended the immediate threat to Kampot, and Cambodian militias quickly secured the roads from the Vietnamese frontier towards the coast in case of a new front being opened. Meanwhile, Rollet's march towards Kampong Som was nearly two hundred kilometers along the single-track railroad (which was sabotaged in multiple points by the retreating German-Cambodian force) and which passed through the heavily forested Cardamom and Elephant Mountains of southwestern Cambodia, with the only traversable route at a narrow chokepoint where the two ranges met at Stoeng Chral.

The Battle of Stoeng Chral began on April 22 and would last five days, and Rollet's memoir described it as some of the most savage fighting he had ever experienced, worse than anything that had occurred in the May Rebellion; even as the French forces broke through the Cambodian defenses under heavy barrage from the hills through the narrow valley, they sustained heavy casualties, and saboteurs at night damaged or destroyed equipment, slit the throats of horses, and ruined gunpowder and ammunition with buckets of water and pig fat. As April drew to a close and Rollet's forces maneuvered towards Kampong Som, they were exhausted, running low on supplies, and now isolated from support west of the mountains. Rollet hesitated and elected instead to regroup in control of the Stoeng Chral Valley and wait for more reinforcements from Vietnam, Formosa, and Korea (as well as zouaves and Foreign Legionnaires from French Africa, though here he suspected his backup would be much more limited) rather than risk his forces further, especially with the Ostasienflotte's squadron in Kampong Som acting as floating fortresses.

It is not an exaggeration to suggest that the Battles of Angk Ta Saom and Stoeng Chral may have been a decisive inflection point in the history of Southeast Asia. Delaying the advance of the Franco-Vietnamese force allowed the German-Cambodian defenders to regroup at their coastal strongholds, yes, but it also proved to the royal court in Bangkok that France would not rapidly overrun Cambodia and end the war in the matter of weeks (though at sea, the French Marine Imperiale was quickly spreading out to snuff out Germany's Pacific holdings). Those critical weeks of April gave the German ministers in Bangkok - and, eventually, the Resident of Cambodia, Prince Konrad of Bavaria - time to attempt to persuade King Rama VI to continue mobilizing his armies, not just to defend the frontiers but to intervene directly in the conflict..."

- Steel Typhoon: The Oriental Theater of the Central European War [1]

[1] I will admit I don't love the Asian campaigns of this war being affixed the name "Central European War" for, well, obvious reasons. I'll chalk this up to Europeans viewing it through this lens, but it almost certainly has a different name in Asia.
 
Those critical weeks of April gave the German ministers in Bangkok - and, eventually, the Resident of Cambodia, Prince Konrad of Bavaria - time to attempt to persuade King Rama VI to continue mobilizing his armies, not just to defend the frontiers but to intervene directly in the conflict..."

- Steel Typhoon: The Oriental Theater of the Central European War
Thailand is going to join the war, Isn't it?. OTL they joined the Allies.
 
So, it seems that we are moving in the direction of a German-dominated SE Asia after the war. What will be interesting, of course, is that German policy in this region (based on the precedent of our Bavarian administration in Cambodia) is much more hands-off than that of the French. No doubt this region will get its independence eventually - but I wonder if the German way of handling things will mean that the independent SE kingdoms remain in the German economic sphere even once independence is attained. Certainly, there doesn't seem to be much anti-German sentiment in Cambodia and soon-to-be-ally Thailand.

I also wonder how long it is going to take for Japan to get itself involved. There is no way that, after the humiliation of the Phillipines, it isn't going to look at French colonies with some adore - especially once it becomes evident that Cambodia is putting up a fight and is likely to tie the French down. Though I do wonder if there won't be some leary members of government who point out "Yeah, we beat the Spanish and the Europeans stripped us of our rightful prize in that war. What's so say that they wont use ur soldiers and sailors as cannon fodder and betray us at the peace table yet again."

On an unrelated side note: I am STILL hoping Haiti throws its lot in with the Germans and is able to repudiate its debt to France and also some French carribbean lands. Though I suspect that the French navy is going to have to be bloodied before that happens - Haiti doesn't have a naval presence of its own and is going to need German naval support to get its troops on the ground in those places (though that would set up an interesting situaton: the US has a naval base in Haiti and isn't going to look kindly on the French actually threatening the island. Which means, Haiti in this situation would actually be pretty safe from invasion - the French try anything and the US will be mobilizing and sending strongly-worded diplomatic letters telling them to back off sooner than Nappy V can blink. Which means, Haiti would be in a very safe position to pursue its war aims: it can, with help, strike out but is safe from retaliation) Mind you this may jsut be pie-in-the-sky dreaming: but I just want to see a stable and prosperous Haiti, or, at least, a relatively stable and propserous one! :D
 
If Haiti doesn’t lose there German investment class and does lose their massive debt while also being not occupied by Wilson I think there going to be way better off, avoiding horrible leaders as well
 
Isn't the Dominican Republic basically a Spanish protectorate now? Also, can this German-SIamese approachment lead to the Kra canal post war?
 
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