September 2013 : military intervention in Syria

kspence92

What would happen if the US, UK, France and Turkey bombed Syria rather than backing out at the last minute? Let's assume the air strikes wipe out the Syrian Air Force and missile launchers and some command and control assets what happens? Do the rebels immediately seize Damascus?
 

NotYetRegistered

I don't know much about the Syrian conflict, but my guess it would be two months or so before the rebels start gaining momentum again and that in a year Assad would've been defeated.
 

Major Smith

It really depends on how far they go- if it's something similar to desert fox in 1998 when the US and UK bombed Iraq then I think that Al-Assad could maybe survive but it would give a big boost to the rebels who may be able to seize upon the panic caused to the command and control centres. They would benefit from the lack of a syrian air force but the problem is that Syria still has funding+arms from Russia/Iran
 

Wendell

kspence92 said:
What would happen if the US, UK, France and Turkey bombed Syria rather than backing out at the last minute? Let's assume the air strikes wipe out the Syrian Air Force and missile launchers and some command and control assets what happens? Do the rebels immediately seize Damascus?
Click to expand...

The civil war likely continues as the opposirion is divided.
 

Orville_third

Banned
A few things, in no particular order:
-Rebels win
-Syrian civil war continues, between secularists, domestic Islamists, ISIS, Druze, Alawites and Kurds.
-Oil prices skyrocket
-Labour, Respect, Greens, Plaid and SNP grow in popularity in UK.
-US House votes to not approve war or fund war. War Powers Act showdown occurs. Possible impeachment of Obama/Biden. (If vote occurs after Hersh's article, say hello to President Leahy.)
Long term:
-Syria unstable.
-Mideast also unstable.
-Israel facing more terror attacks.
-Labour distances themselves from Blair.
-Democrats and Republicans supporting war primaried out.
-Seymour Hersh wins prize for his LRB reporting on Syria.
-Iran buys S-300s.
 
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