September 1940 - Japan's Vietnam Nightmare

From Wikipedia....

On September 1940, an accord was signed by Japan and the Vichy French administrators of French Indochina.[1] This accord granted various basing and transit rights also limited to 6000[2] the number of Axis troops which could be stationed in Indochina, and set an overall cap of 25,000[3] on the total number of troops that, including basing and transit, could be in the colony at any given time. In addition, the final article of the agreement barred all Axis land, air, and naval forces from Indochinese territory except as explicitly authorized in the preceding articles.[4] Exceptions to these agreements would require Vichy approval

As the French retreated southward, the Japanese encouraged Vietnamese troops to support the invasion. The communists in the Bac Son district border area moved to take advantage of the situation, organizing self-defense units and establishing a revolutionary administration on September 27, 1940. The French protested to the Japanese, however, and a cease-fire was arranged whereby the French forces returned to their posts and promptly put down all insurrection. Most of the communist forces in Tonkin were able to retreat to the mountains. In similar short-lived uprisings that took place in the Plain of Reeds area of Cochinchina, however, the communist rebel forces had nowhere to retreat and most were destroyed by the French

But WI the Free French encouraged the Military Units there to resist the Japanese Invasion ?

Or The French decided to set aside their differences with the Viet Minh and utilize them to resist the Japanese Invasion ? Or What if Roosevelt and Churchill had pressured the Free French to go easy on the Vietnamese Populace and make moves to grant them Autonomy to win over their support ?

Or the Japanese use heavy handed tactics against both the French and Viet Minh forces causing them to ally against the Japs ?

And would a Japanese Invasion of Indo-China make the Brits, Dutch, and US sit up and strengthen their defences especially in seeing how the Japanese would inflict atrocities against French, Asian, Civilian, and POW's ?

Also would a prolonged subjacation of French Indo-China severly affect the Japanese timetable for conquest especially if British & American Military "Observers & Volunteers" assisted the French & Viet Minh ?
 
Well, look at treatment of Southeast Asian communists after WWII - the British crushed the Chinese in Malaysia and the US refused to recognize the Philippine communists, with the Philippine government later cracking down in the 1950s. And don't forget that Ho Chi Minh initially thought the US would support him since, after all, he was fighting for independence against a foreign empire. Of course, he was sorely disabused of this notion. Also remember that the US preferred to support a massively corrupt dictator rather than let the filthy commies get their hands on any more Vietnamese land. Any recognition of the Viet Minh would have to address the already-existing suspicions of the Allied governments towards international communism, so #2 on your list would probably never happen.

Oh, and fun fact: the Thais almost declared war on the US to appease the Japanese, but the Thai ambassador to the US refused to pass the message and just kept the declaration in his pocket, sparing Thailand from making any reparations.
 

Markus

Banned
But WI the Free French encouraged the Military Units there to resist the Japanese Invasion ?
Or What if Roosevelt and Churchill had pressured the Free French to go easy on the Vietnamese Populace and make moves to grant them Autonomy to win over their support ?

Indochina was under Vichy control, otherwise the Japanese could not have set foot into it whitout being at war with the Allies.


And would a Japanese Invasion of Indo-China make the Brits, Dutch, and US sit up and strengthen their defences especially in seeing how the Japanese would inflict atrocities against French, Asian, Civilian, and POW's ?
Well, the Japanese way of treating POW and civillians was no secret after years of artrocities in China and from the allied point of view they sort-of invaded Indochina but the allied reaction was lackluster at best. In case the Japanese actions wake the Allies up, the prospects for the Japanese look bad to put it mildly. See mine and CalBear´s timelines.
 
Understood Markus, but let's assume that The French after getting ass whupped by the Germans and DeGaulle wanting to but some meat behind "France has lost the battle, but not the war" screed encourages the Free French in Indo-China to reach a compromise with the Viet Minh and begin the formation of an active resistance....

He also meets with Churchill and Roosevelt to persuade them to see whatever aid they can provide to the Anti Japanese Resistance.

De Gaulle also charms Eleanor Roosevelt into getting FDR to hamper the Japanese tide of aggression and she agrees but demands that the French start treating the Asians in Indo China better if DeGaulle wants her help....

Stalin who fears Japanese moves towards Russia's Western Frontiers learns about DeGaulle's overtures through his spies and tells both Roosevelt and Churchill through Soviet Diplomats using covert means so as not to antagonise Japan that he'll encourage the Viet Minh and Ho Chi Minh to work with the French to wear down the Japanese ....

However Stalin wants to do this to pave the way for a Full Communist takeover in Indo China after victory over Japan is achieved....
 

Markus

Banned
Understood Markus, but let's assume that The French after getting ass whupped by the Germans and DeGaulle wanting to but some meat behind "France has lost the battle, but not the war" screed encourages the Free French in Indo-China to reach a compromise with the Viet Minh and begin the formation of an active resistance....

IF the leadership of French Indochina chooses the Free French side they have no reason at all to make a compromise with any independence movement because they are now part of The Allies. Thus a part of the Commonwealth forces stationed in Malaya will be send into FIC right away, more in case Japan makes threatening moves. Any japanese invasion would not be a small conflict but a full scale war with Free France, the British Empire, the DEI and with a 99.9% probability the USA too.
 
well, fellas, there actually was a Jap massacre of French Foreign Legion garrisons in Indochina in 1945- after the initial Vichy welcome-with-open-arms attitude.
 
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