September 11 avoided, trial of conspiritators

What would the reaction be if the dots had been put together and the September 11 outrage been avoided.

Would there be sharp scepticism of the scale of the plot?

How big a target would Bin Ladin have bee?

How much difference would it make whether this happened under GW Bush or had Gore managed to get in?
 
Bin Laden was already well-known (well, among average NYers and Washington insiders at least, not so much your flyover Americans) Because he masterminded the first World Trade Center bombing (His name was even mentioned in an episode of West Wing years before 9/11).

If the hijackers were stopped I think he'd be seen as someone with big huge ideas but that he has problems with executing them. He'd be a target but not enemy number 1. No invasion of Afghanistan, and there wouldn't be enough to activate NATO as there was in OTL. Proportional response to a failed attempt of this magnitude- more sanctions on Afghanistan and Sudan, targeted strikes in those nations and Yemen, seizure of assets of family members, black ops we never hear of.

Bin Laden probably loses some credibility in his view of large high profile targeting with mass casualities. Rivals probably splinter to create separate cells that believe in smaller attacks.

Airport security probably isn't heightened as much as OTL, money is instead funneled into intelligence community as they are seen to be effective and competent and to be the heroes. Even though it's not a zero sum game, budgets are always treated that way; why spend money on security at an airport that wouldn't have stopped men with box cutters anyways, when spending money on intelligence has shown to be a winner.

Does Hussein do something during a Bush administration to provoke an invasion? Probably, and the fault will be on both sides. Bush has a grudge, Hussein has a big mouth. It all depends on what it is and how convincing other nations are as to whether he should be invaded. Do we instead see something similar to Syria where the US tries to support some rebels without pissing off Turkey too much about the Kurds and Iran gets involved? I think an independent in all but name Kurdistan is possible, perhaps with Turkey treating it in a fashion similar to as the PRC treats the RoC; or Turkey could get the international community to recognize Northern Cyprus in exchange for Turkey recognizing Kurdistan, along with Kurdistan not supporting any expansion or rebellion of Turkish Kurds and Turkish restrictions on border crossing.
 
Top