I haven't even thought of how the pact may fracture from this impact. Probably not immediately, and Romania might hold together since they've been societist for a while (plus they're sandwiched between Russia and Drakia, who'll object strongly to absconding). But Japan, who are on a less tight leash and aren't even actually societist? And gets hit by Stone Dogs
worse than China and many of their other former colonies? AND are probably going to have severe blockade problems even before their 33% casualties? Given the premise that rolling a 10 means the national government barely holds power? They'll be bailing
really quick I bet.
"Actually nevermind perhaps being a junior partner in East Asian cooperation isn't so bad. C'mon China please kill those genocidal maniacs for us?"
I expect that before the Stone Dogs kick in that any Drakian invasion of Europe will not go well though, the Allience is strong there and Italy won't fall for the same trick twice.
Speaking of free Europe....
Did well: Scandinavia (nat 20!), Netherlands, Lithuania, Ireland
Did OK: Poland, Italy, Croatia
Hopeless: Hungary, Germany, France, Czech, Britain
Yup, this situation is absolutely boned. If Scandinavia gives military aid also the Netherlands might remain a toehold on the mainland, but Lithuania is going to have a BAD time and while Ireland can be defended by the US Navy, it's not going to be an offensive springboard for a while.
EDIT: How integrated are the Finns into Scandinavia? Here's hoping they can pull some Winter War-tier humiliation of the Russians.
-Given that the Pact has 6 members someone better at probability than me can work out what the odds of just one of them rolling a 1 were.
Given the pact has 6 members, if I'm not mistaken the probability of none of them rolling a nat 1 is EDIT: (19/20)^6 = 73.5%, so the odds of at least one of them getting a fumble were 26.5%