Separate peace between Russia and Austro-Hungary

At the beginning of the First World War, the Austro-Hungarian army suffered a series of severe defeats. The Russians drove them from Galicia, also failed invasion of Serbia and Montenegro. What if at the beginning of 1915 the Emperor Franz Joseph came to the conclusion that the Central can not win the war, and its continuation threatens the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and decided to conclude a separate peace with Russia, Serbia and Montenegro? I assume that Austria-Hungary resigned from Galicia, Bukovina and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Are these countries Entente abandoned plans to break up the Austro-Hungarian Empire?

800px-FR-WW1-1915-French-plans.png


As withdrawal of the Austro-Hungarian affect the further course of the war?
 
One question: is this map of an ATL, or did France really want to blow Germany and Austria-Hungary to pieces. I was under the impression that the dual monarchy's collapse was more accepted than sought after.

The biggest concern I have with a separate Austrian/Russian peace is that the further along you go into the war, the more German troops are propping up their Austrian counterparts. The Emperor might be able to declare peace, but I don't know if he could actually enforce it. At the very least, the Germans are going to be well positioned to make Austria very sorry for stabbing Germany in the back.
 
One question: is this map of an ATL, or did France really want to blow Germany and Austria-Hungary to pieces. I was under the impression that the dual monarchy's collapse was more accepted than sought after.

Well, not only in France were the ideas of the division of Germany and Austro-Hungary. Similar plans have also Russia. This map was published in Russia in October 1914:

Europa_1914.jpg


But maybe if Austria-Hungary proposed the countries of the Entente separate peace, it would have retreated.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
the biggest concern I have with a separate Austrian/Russian peace is that the further along you go into the war, the more German troops are propping up their Austrian counterparts.

true, although I think Austria-Hungary would be able to call its own shots, as late as spring 1915, as the German presence was not yet overwhelming.

On the other hand, it's an awful big concession to yield pre-war Austro-Hungarian territory
 
On the other hand, it's an awful big concession to yield pre-war Austro-Hungarian territory

But these areas (Galicia, Bukovina and Bosnia) were very backward and played a small role in the economy of Austria-Hungary, and due to the separatist aspirations of Ukrainians and Serbs confer more trouble than profits. Galicia at the beginning of 1915 and that was indeed the most part occupied by the Russians.
 

Thanks for the map - it really made my day. The lack of geopolitical understanding (and/or genuine plain bloopers, like the Italian Corsica) in there is so strong, it might as well count as an ASB ATL by itself.

That said, the main problems with the general scenario of early A-H peacemaking are, in my opinion:

1. Franz Joseph himself. He was very old, and this proved problematic in various different ways; firstly he regarded all of the Empire as his birthright and saw himself as a bastion of order. He could be made to bow to realpolitics, but it was very hard to do; also, since he was the only Emperor many A-H subjects ever had, he commanded a lot of respect which helped hide the incoming implosion. He also was unable to exert a vigorous policy, due to his leaving the war effort in the hands of his generals and his generally not too excellent health; both would slow down the understanding of the faltering situation and hamper any attempt at peace.
2. The general geopolitical situation. Essentially, Austria was a victim of its role - far too strong to be ignored or played like the Ottomans, but at the same time riddled with unanswered contradictions and dangerously trying to live up to its strength. Thus, separate peace was not a realistic option; even with the grievous early losses, the Empire could well afford to fall back, reorganize, and fight another day. nobody really wanted Russia to extort a separate peace which didn't help much French interests, let alone the British - and as soon as Italy was in, there would be the huge problem of the Italian politicians bullheadedly sticking to the Pact of London.

I can only think of a worse retreat, coupled with FJ dying two years early in a sudden manner, being able to do that.
 
Thanks for the map - it really made my day. The lack of geopolitical understanding (and/or genuine plain bloopers, like the Italian Corsica) in there is so strong, it might as well count as an ASB ATL by itself.

Corsica can actually be an ordinary mistake but the governments of France and Russia really floated plans for diverting and dividing Austro-Hungary and Germany on smaller countries. Russia wanted to unite under its control all the areas inhabited by Poles and Ukrainians, and "liberate" other Slavic nations from the domination of the Habsburgs, and France regarded Germany as the biggest threat to each other (because they were much more strongly industrialized and had about 23 millions more inhabitants). If Russia isn't eliminated from the war, these plans really able to be realized.

1. Franz Joseph himself. He was very old, and this proved problematic in various different ways; firstly he regarded all of the Empire as his birthright and saw himself as a bastion of order. He could be made to bow to realpolitics, but it was very hard to do; also, since he was the only Emperor many A-H subjects ever had, he commanded a lot of respect which helped hide the incoming implosion. He also was unable to exert a vigorous policy, due to his leaving the war effort in the hands of his generals and his generally not too excellent health; both would slow down the understanding of the faltering situation and hamper any attempt at peace.

Franz Joseph realized how much of a threat to the empire is war and apparently before his death became a supporter of peace, even at any price.

2. The general geopolitical situation. Essentially, Austria was a victim of its role - far too strong to be ignored or played like the Ottomans, but at the same time riddled with unanswered contradictions and dangerously trying to live up to its strength. Thus, separate peace was not a realistic option; even with the grievous early losses, the Empire could well afford to fall back, reorganize, and fight another day. nobody really wanted Russia to extort a separate peace which didn't help much French interests, let alone the British - and as soon as Italy was in, there would be the huge problem of the Italian politicians bullheadedly sticking to the Pact of London.

A separate peace with Austria-Hungary was a great help to the whole Entente, because Germany lost to most important ally and on the Eastern Front would have to fight without help. I expect that already in 1916 would suffer defeat. And if Austria-Hungary withdrew from the war in the spring of 1915, Italy probably did not manage to accede to it.
 
Last edited:
1. Franz Joseph himself. He was very old, and this proved problematic in various different ways; firstly he regarded all of the Empire as his birthright and saw himself as a bastion of order. He could be made to bow to realpolitics, but it was very hard to do; also, since he was the only Emperor many A-H subjects ever had, he commanded a lot of respect which helped hide the incoming implosion.

This is the real problem: Austria-Hungary arguably has the power to seek a separate peace early in the war; but its emperor-king at that point was Franz-Josef, who would have been deeply unwilling to entertain such a prospect.

By the time his nephew Karl succeeded to the throne and began sending out feelers, it was too late. The crown's authority was weakened, and Austria had become a mere appendage of Germany by that point. And by that that point, the Allied price for peace had gone too high.
 
Well, not only in France were the ideas of the division of Germany and Austro-Hungary. Similar plans have also Russia. This map was published in Russia in October 1914:

Europa_1914.jpg


But maybe if Austria-Hungary proposed the countries of the Entente separate peace, it would have retreated.

I love that the French are giving Russia more of Germany than Russia was wanted.

If the pro-peace faction was smart (something that seemed in sadly short supply in Austria), they would have sold it as a clever double cross repaying Prussia for the Austro-Prussian war. If they play their cards right, Russia and France might have been willing to let Austria exchange Bosnia and Galicia for Bavaria and Wurtenburg.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
the peace with Austria-Hungary was a great help to the whole Entente, because Germany lost to most important ally and on the Eastern Front would have to fight without help. I expect that already in 1916 would suffer defeat.

Except if Austria-Hungary drops out, especially having made concessions to Russia and Serbia, Russia has little left to fight for. It may drop out of the war with Germany itself. I mean sure, the Russians could gain title to Eastern German borderlands by continuing to fight, and would have continued access to British and French funds, but I can't say for certain St. Petersburg would find this enough worth fighting for. Russian losses to German defenses and counterattacks are going to be large, as if to amplify the point.

If staying in the war after an Austrian dropout and end of the original casus belli, the Russians' hearts would certainly be more into the Ottoman front than the German front.
 
Top