Senator Ditka

[Mysterion]

So, apparantly former football coach Mike Ditka might have run for the seanate seat in Illinois that Barack obama won in 2004.

Here's a link: http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2013/10/10/obama-mike-ditka-illinois-senate-2004-race/2957775/

Could Ditka have defeated Obama? Would this have guaranteed a win for Hillary Clinton in the 2008 presidential election? Would ditka be worth anything in the seante?

 

[Pellegrino]

I can already see the negative ads featuring Ricky Williams, used as proof the he lacks the judgement to be Senator.

With that being said I think he'd give Obama a run for his money. But I still think Obama would probably win. Might be a brutal enough campaign to kill his presidential run in 2008 though.

 

[Andrew T]

I think Wikipedia answers this question pretty nicely:

In July 2004, Ditka, a self-described "ultra-ultra-ultra conservative", was reportedly considering running against Democrat Barack Obama for an open seat in the U.S. Senate for Illinois in the 2004 Senate election. The seat was being vacated by Peter Fitzgerald, a Republican, and Republican nominee Jack Ryan withdrew from the race amid controversy at the end of June, leaving the Republicans in a bind. Local and national political leaders, from Illinois Republican Party Chair Judy Baar Topinka to National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Sen. George Allen, whose father by the same name was an assistant coach with the Bears in the 1960s when Ditka played, met with Ditka in an effort to persuade him to fill the spot on the ticket.

On July 14, however, Ditka announced he would not seek the nomination, citing personal and business considerations (his wife was against the run and he operates a chain of restaurants). Barack Obama went on to defeat former ambassador Alan Keyes in a landslide in the November 2004 election. In October 2008, Ditka introduced vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin at a rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania.

A political neophyte running way to the right in a very Democratic year, in a very Democratic state, against an exceptional campaigner? You don't have to go very far out on a particularly long limb to predict something in excess of a 60-40 shellacking.

Ditka's "I coulda beaten Obama" shtick is on the level of the armchair athlete who thinks "geez, I coulda hit that 30-yard field goal...."

 

[Magniac]

I agree with Andrew T, but remember, Alan Keyes won 27% of the vote (the famous '27% crazification factor' of sections of the blogosphere); Mike Ditka should be able to use that as a baseline.

Merely being able to get a polling trendline to within ten points of his opponent during the summer, that should make the Kerry campaign reconsider whether or not they want to give Obama the keynote speaking slot at the DNC.

That's what Ditka can do. It's not the same as winning a senate seat; it's about removing the great advantage BHO had for jumping into the 2008 race...

 

[Andrew T]

I agree with Andrew T, but remember, Alan Keyes won 27% of the vote (the famous '27% crazification factor' of sections of the blogosphere); Mike Ditka should be able to use that as a baseline.

Merely being able to get a polling trendline to within ten points of his opponent during the summer, that should make the Kerry campaign reconsider whether or not they want to give Obama the keynote speaking slot at the DNC.

That's what Ditka can do. It's not the same as winning a senate seat; it's about removing the great advantage BHO had for jumping into the 2008 race...

Jack Ryan didn't withdraw from the 2004 Senate Race until July 29, 2004; Obama's speech was July 27.

Moreover, the decision to give the speech to Obama was probably made sometime in early May. It's not uncommon for state and local officials to get prime speaking engagements; witness Julian and Joaquin Castro, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Kamala Harris from 2012 alone.

There are certainly many, many ways to derail Obama's rapid ascent into the 2008 race -- but Ditka doesn't strike me as one of them.

 

[Simon]

... against an exceptional campaigner?

Was he that much of an exceptional campaigner at this stage without the large financing behind him? I honestly don't know enough about his earlier career to say. I do seem to recall that he won the primary by getting all his opponents thrown out on technicalities so that he was unopposed.

 

[Kalvan]

Ditka's "I coulda beaten Obama" shtick is on the level of the armchair athlete who thinks "geez, I coulda hit that 30-yard field goal...."

Splitting the uprights at thirty yards, even in helmet and pads is, in the grand scheme of things, not all that hard. This would be more like the armchair athlete saying that he could have made that end zone-to-end zone Hail Mary, or better yet, caught it as a wideout.

 

[Ganesha]

Was he that much of an exceptional campaigner at this stage without the large financing behind him? I honestly don't know enough about his earlier career to say. I do seem to recall that he won the primary by getting all his opponents thrown out on technicalities so that he was unopposed.

Not sure where you're getting that from - the wiki page says nothing about it, and seems to imply that he won the primary mostly through strong union backing and plenty of money for TV ads.

In any case - yes, President Obama is a good campaigner. It's not something I can quantify, but he's a gifted speaker, knows how to rouse a crowd, and is not averse to 12-hour days on the trail.

And as to the OP, no way in hell Ditka gets anywhere near winning. This is a Senate seat, not a "I'm good at sports 'n' shit" seat.

Cheers,
Ganesha

 

[Plumber]

Was he that much of an exceptional campaigner at this stage without the large financing behind him? I honestly don't know enough about his earlier career to say. I do seem to recall that he won the primary by getting all his opponents thrown out on technicalities so that he was unopposed.

He was the dark horse in the primary, much moreso than in the presidential race.

 

[burtledog]

Ryan

Lost in here is how Ryan was driven out. Sealed divorce records from a divorce from a moderately well known actress was leaked to late for a normal replacement. Keyes was a carpet bagger of sorts and as noted, hought of as a bit of a kook. Ditka if advised well, would have done well. If I recall Ryan and the Pres. Were very close. Ryan may have even led when the leaks were made.

 

[Dunning Kruger]

Lost in here is how Ryan was driven out. Sealed divorce records from a divorce from a moderately well known actress was leaked to late for a normal replacement. Keyes was a carpet bagger of sorts and as noted, hought of as a bit of a kook. Ditka if advised well, would have done well. If I recall Ryan and the Pres. Were very close. Ryan may have even led when the leaks were made.

You're leaving out the best part. His wife was "Seven of Nine" on show Star Trek Voyegeur. Absolute babe in the best sense of the word. Anyway, she divorced him for taking her to a sex clubs and pressuring her to perform sex acts. You have to love Chicago politics and their politicians. Hmm, I want to be a politician someday. But today, I will go to sex club and get a hummer in public...

 

[Simon]

Not sure where you're getting that from - the wiki page says nothing about it, and seems to imply that he won the primary mostly through strong union backing and plenty of money for TV ads.

Apologies, I was misremembering his state senate seat election.

In any case - yes, President Obama is a good campaigner. It's not something I can quantify, but he's a gifted speaker, knows how to rouse a crowd, and is not averse to 12-hour days on the trail.

On the good campaigner bit it didn't seem to help him with his challenge against Bobby Rush where he lost two to one, but I'll defer to those with more experience of American political matters.

 

[Ganesha]

Apologies, I was misremembering his state senate seat election.

In that race his opponents, also political neophytes, were disqualified for not having enough signatures to go on the ballot.

On the good campaigner bit it didn't seem to help him with his challenge against Bobby Rush where he lost two to one, but I'll defer to those with more experience of American political matters.

In that election he made the elementary mistake of challenging a popular four-term left-wing congressperson from the left.

Cheers,
Ganesha

 

[Magniac]

Jack Ryan didn't withdraw from the 2004 Senate Race until July 29, 2004; Obama's speech was July 27.

As mentioned above, he was a dead man walking ever since the sex scandal revelations came out.

Obvious solution: bring all that forward a month, ergo he quits the race a month earlier than IOTL; handwave in Ditka's desire to accept the open nom; have Big Mike challenging Obama in various polls, within the margin of error, from within days of his campaign launch (presumably the end of the first week of July, as per Keyes OTL launch around August 6th, 2004.).

There is a tiny amount of room there for the Kerry campaign to reconsider Obama for keynote. Shrum disease.

Maybe you have to add something like Bill Clinton attempting to muscle in, trying to grab that spot for himself.

 

[Andrew T]

Obvious solution: bring all that forward a month, ergo he quits the race a month earlier than IOTL; handwave in Ditka's desire to accept the open nom; have Big Mike challenging Obama in various polls, within the margin of error, from within days of his campaign launch (presumably the end of the first week of July, as per Keyes OTL launch around August 6th, 2004.).

That's pretty clever, except that I'm not convinced that the possibility of Obama losing (in November of '04) would deter the Kerry campaign from giving him a prime-time speaking slot (in July); indeed, a close race might even make that more likely, as Democrats certainly wouldn't want to lose that Senate seat.

Again, I point you to previous examples of up-and-coming state officials in my previous post; you might add to that Cory Booker, who was selected at a time when it was possible (perhaps even likely?) that he would challenge and lose to Chris Christie.

There is a tiny amount of room there for the Kerry campaign to reconsider Obama for keynote. Shrum disease.

That's probably the best counter-argument, though.

Maybe you have to add something like Bill Clinton attempting to muscle in, trying to grab that spot for himself.

If that happens, you probably wind up with a scenario like NickCT's excellent Hope Is On The Way. I imagine Clinton's "muscling in" would salvage what was (IOTL) a pretty disastrous DNC. That means you get Kerry in 2004 as a one-term President; Obama building a career the old-fashioned way in the Senate, and probably the no-brainer choice for VP in 2012.