Don Grey
Banned
Thanks for the correction.
However, my point still stands. Will Russia be still invading Ottoman Empire as often if it's an Ottoman Empire which doesn't have to deal with janissaries and ethnic nationalism ?
Yes i belive they will. Because even though the russians were winning the battles they were still taking high casualties.The problam is they had men to spare. Even if you get a stalemate or victories there still going to come. Because the ottomans cant threaten russia it self as in pose a threat to her well being or core territories while the russians can to the ottomans. What does she have to lose ,men which she has plenty of.
If the russians gets to georgia they know anatolia is in spitting distance so is azerbeijan. There going to say were so close to anatolia and cutting the ottomans of access to the caspian. So they are going to keep trying. Holding only the western coastal strips all the way from georgia to crimea isnt going to stop russia from wanting access to the black see while they control 2/3 of the land in the caucasus. All they would need to do is deliver a little nug and they would have thrown the ottomans into the black sea.Its like a man standing at the edge of a pear with a body builder behind him ready to push. If you dont control the land between the caspian and black see you dont control the black sea coast. Thats why i said hold everything up to and including crimea and astrakhan.Maybe the distance might make them think twice. Same goes for the balkans got to hold on to besserabia and hold the line from there. If they keep moving in deeper from there thats just going to create slav and orthadox ambitions.
Any battle you figth will have to be defensive and must be crushing victories with stagering causalties for russians as your at your end line for logistics at besserabia crimea and astrakhan but cant give way or else the dor opens. Russia must realize that any war with the ottomans will be bloody as hell and any yard they gain will bleed them dry. This is all you have as you cant threatin her core territories and you dont have the pop because its too late for islamization for the balkans and the caucasus. This is going to be difficult as it is because you will still have a large orthadox pop with a very large orthadox empire right across the border. Plus theres nappy but will get back to that latter.
As for the AH after it collapses you can grab everything in the balkans short of vienna and hungary up to and including what we know today as slovania. And if you play your cards right maybe even you can grab chunks off of hungary as there is nothing other then logistics stoping you from having your way in the balkans especialy not the balkanized remains of the former AH. More balkan and caucasus territory means more tax revanue and more reasource for industrialization.
But these carries problams in its own. As if you manage to industrialize properly you will be a very rich empire on par with great powers. But dont forget your richest territories either have christian majority or christians pularity. And once they get richer and better educated there going to get bitten from the nationalism bug wheather they want to or not. Sure foriegn powers probably can meddile in you internal affair in this scenario but you will still have to deal with internal ambitions. If you give them equal rights you will just fuel there nationalism and now they have the money education and means to be the fith column. If you dont they will just get angry as they are the wealthiest and most well educated being run by poor uneducated foriegn occupiers. Since you cant convert them into the numbers you need the future looks like one with constant strife. Remember valdemars post recipe for disaster.
As for russia only option is to weaken her before selim to get the results you need.
As for selim. The man has 10 years to get lost territory back from the balkans get up to and take astrakhan hold on to crimia then hold the line as mother russia isnt going to take this lieing down (i know that came out strange). Eradicate the janissaries cleanse jannissary loyalists in the goverment employ reforms build up the nizami-cedid in time and size to fight nappy in egypt all in ten years. That is if everything goes according to otl but we have changed so much i highly doubt that. Selim might have to fight nappy earler because with out the AH whats to stop nappy from going for belgrad after he burns vienna to the grounds. With no AH its alot easyer for nappy to take vieena and still have men to go for belgrad or maybe even istanbul. Lets go even earler with out AH its a one on one with nappy with the italian city states. It will be a walk in the park. I dont see your scenario playing out "realisticly" as nappy is a big fricking wild card in the game.
For your scenario to work you need a collapsed AH and a weakend russia.
But then you have taken out two key nappy opponents out of the game early on. The only realistic option i can see is the franco-ottoman alliance continues and its not ASB for it to happen. A selim calls the reformest grand vezir alemdar pasha to cleanse the balkans of jannisaries with his army then he calls the sipahis and other loyalists to cleanse istanbul and anatolia of jannissaries which the sipahis will be more then happy to do. Then he installs reforms with the technical help and officer training from france he modernizes the army. Nappy goes according to otl except the egyption campaign. He attacks AH but this time it collapses with ottomanhelp. Vienna is burned to the ground as usual but with ottomans attacking from the south. The french take what they want and what they leave goes to the ottomans most likely everything south of vienna and they gain some much needed loot.
With peter dead in the 1710-1711 russo-ottoman war alexie takes the throne. Russia is weaker and more conservative and less enthusiastic for modernization/reform etc but not out of the game yet. Then nappy goes for russia as usual again this time the otto's advancing from the south. With the technical help and officer aid from the french the ottos attack russia with the french.Napoleon wins moscow burns otto's gains some loot and take everything up to astrakhan with russia a shadow of its former power they can hold on to those regions and the balkan holdings are garrantied until late 19th century nationalism pops up.Until then ottomans dont go to war and stay put digesting what they have gained for decades if possible. Reforms continue standerdized education, rail when rail roads are invented, navy is reformed and rebuilt to its former glory to be on par with the rest.Modernization and industrialization continue perferably with a common langauge the ottos creat a common identity to unite the masses of there newly reborn empire. But this also has a down side because now france is a hegemon in europe only thing standing between them and total domination is britian.
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