Seikanron: Takamori and Mutsuhito's excellent adventure of 1873?

If Japan invaded Korea in 1873

  • Japan would conquer and hold Korea quickly

    Votes: 2 9.5%
  • Japan would conquer and hold Korea slowly and painfully

    Votes: 11 52.4%
  • the Koreans would drive of Japanese invaders/raiders by themselves

    Votes: 1 4.8%
  • the Japanese would get at least enough loot or indemnity to repay their costs

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • the expenditures would require tax increases causing a revolt and/or civil war

    Votes: 1 4.8%
  • the expenditures would require borrowing that would impair Japanese sovereignty

    Votes: 1 4.8%
  • the Chinese would intervene and drive off the Japanese

    Votes: 4 19.0%
  • the Chinese would intervene and fail to drive off the Japanese

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • the Russians would drive off the Japanese or take other action vs Japan

    Votes: 1 4.8%
  • Britain, France, the USA or Germany would drive off the Japanese

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Japan would hamper its development by losing Samurai who would have become competent administrators

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    21

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
What if Mutsuhito (the Emperor Meiji) remained convinced of the desirability of Saigo Takamori's plan to invade Korea in 1873 and endorsed prompt action, instead of insisting on consultation with various ministers who were traveling abroad.

The Japanese invade Korea in 1873 with a bunch of Samurai and the limited amount of western tech they had at the time.

What happens?

Takamori and Mutsuhito's Excellent Adventure?

or

Takamori and Mutsuhito's terrible, horrible, very bad, no good day?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
What did Japan's military look like in 1873? After all, this was only five years after the start of the Meiji Restoration.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
@Faeelin: My scenario is no more than a sketch really.

But the Emperor approves Saigo's plan. Saigo goes to Korea to demand an apology and is obnoxious enough to get himself assassinated. This all happens before the other Genro get home. Saigo's assassination gives the Emperor the excuse to declare war and throw a large Samurai volunteer force, much of Japan's western purchased arms and ships (the gear purchased since 1854 and still working in 73) into an invasion from Tsushima to Pusan, Korea. Bonus points for Saigo and the like-minded. They have their war. Problem for Saigo, he's dead and so his allies need to lead the charge.
 
what's the status of Japanese and Korean military in that date? Even if the Emperor approves the Plan, logistics can undermine the Japanese invasion and make it fail.
I don't think that the European nations would oppose this move nor support it unless the Japanese affect their interests.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
what's the status of Japanese and Korean military in that date?

I don't know, that's where I am on relying the estimation of others more knowledgeable than me on both countries at this time.

Even if the Emperor approves the Plan, logistics can undermine the Japanese invasion and make it fail.

It could, but that all depends on the answers above.

Basically semi-modern Japanese + crappy logistics + comparable Korean (or other) resistance = defeat for Japanese

or semi-modern Japanese + semi-modern logistics - hopelessly outclassed Korean resistance = victory for Japanese

I don't think that the European nations would oppose this move nor support it unless the Japanese affect their interests.

I think this is a plausible argument. The Europeans pretty much have no existing stakes or property in Korea, at most they were speculating on potential future gains.
 
The Koreans were still a Chinese tributary state at this point. I don't think the Japanese would want to do this without being confident that they could defeat a Chinese army and local Korean resistance, and I wouldn't assume such confidence is warranted this early.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
The Koreans were still a Chinese tributary state at this point. I don't think the Japanese would want to do this without being confident that they could defeat a Chinese army and local Korean resistance, and I wouldn't assume such confidence is warranted this early.

I would not assume that Japan would defeat an intervening Chinese army either.

However I would not say that fear of China's potential was a guaranteed deterrent for the Japanese Emperor, Saigo and friends. The Japanese side (at least absent the Genro personalities who were on a world tour) could have the confidence to *try* an invasion, whether it actually turns out well for them or not.

Japan at around this time was already willing to squeeze out Chinese claims of suzerainty over the Ryukyu islands, and was willing to invade Chinese own territory in Taiwan, as early as 1874.

As for what the Chinese would do in reaction to a Japanese invasion and attempted occupation of Korea in 1873, that is a very interesting question. On the one hand, the Chinese of the 1880s contested Japanese moves in Korea, willing to escalate to war by 1894. The Chinese of 1873 had also defeated the Taiping and Nian rebellions in the heart of China proper. They could be in a better position to defend their interests in 1873 than in the previous two decades.

On the other hand, the Chinese were still dealing with the Muslims rebellions in the southwest and northwest, so Viceroy Li Honzhang in Zhili would know that General Zuo Zongtang would not be available to reinforce him and General Zeng Guofan had died the prior year. In 1876, the Chinese did nothing to counter Japan's gunboat diplomacy to impose an unequal treaty on Korea (treaty ports and extraterritoriality).

Whether or not the Chinese send an army to help Korea, one consequence of a precocious Japanese invasion of Korea in '73, especially a successful occupation, would probably be to officially open Manchuria to Han Chinese settlement a couple decades ahead of OTL. Of course, unofficial settlement of Han had begun over a hundred years earlier despite repeated attempts to ban it.

A Japan defeated in Korea, resting from successful exertions there, or bogged down in pacification would likely have a poorer bargaining position vis-a-vis Russia by around 1875, and may have to yield Sakhalin to Russia, without getting the Kurils as compensation, as occurred in OTL:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Saint_Petersburg_(1875)
 
Top