Secular, Liberal Democratic Iran

How can Iran be a secular, liberal democratic nation by today?

Could it be a failed Operation Ajax? An eventual liberalization and democratization of the Imperial regime in a TL without an Islamic Revolution? Khomeini's Revolutionary movement losing out to Bazargan's democratic secularists? A collapse of the Islamist regime, perhaps because of the Iran-Iraq War or some kind of counterrevolution (either peaceful or violent) after Khomeini's death?
 
The constitutional monarchy under Qajar Dynasty continues, and the Majlis gains more and more power? Perhaps if oil is never discovered in Khuzestan, and the British and Russians keep out?

I mean, the Shah would probably still be a Muslim, but Britain has a religious monarch and is still secular.
 

ninebucks

Banned
If Iraq doesn't invade in 1979/80, then the new revolutionary government will have a much harder time rallying people around itself. The Iran-Iraq War was disastrous, an entire generation of Iranians were lost, a fanatical cult gripped the nation and the government was given a carte blanc to whipe out anyone deemed to be counter-revolutionary or unpatriotic, (effectively killing off the pre-'79 secular opposition).

If Iraq doesn't invade Iran, (for whatever reason; different leadership, weaker military, a too delicate situation with its own Shi'ites, etc.), then the Islamists will be severely weakened. There will be no impetus to purge Iran of secularists, socialists and democrats, and these groups will remain vocal and powerful. Iran will become highly destabilised, inevitably leading the way to a second revolution, a revolution that would have to bring in a more universally-accepted government.
 
How can Iran be a secular, liberal democratic nation by today?

Could it be a failed Operation Ajax? An eventual liberalization and democratization of the Imperial regime in a TL without an Islamic Revolution? Khomeini's Revolutionary movement losing out to Bazargan's democratic secularists? A collapse of the Islamist regime, perhaps because of the Iran-Iraq War or some kind of counterrevolution (either peaceful or violent) after Khomeini's death?

The White Revolution seemed to meet a lot of the objectives (except for the democracy part).

I heard the Shah raised oil prices a lot, then blew much of the $$ on weaponry. This caused a lot of inflation in Iran, impoverishing many, plus the fact the $$ wasn't spent on development projects also annoyed people.

If the Shah is a bit more circumspect, he might keep his throne.

The Counterpunch crowd said that the socialists nearly beat out the Islamists for control of Iran in the aftermath of the Revolution. Perhaps that's the Bazargan you're referring to.
 
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