Second Versailles

Around 1923 it finally sinks in that the treaty of Versailles is, to be polite, an unmitigated disaster and that revision is an absolute necessity. Not only is Germany militarily impotent as a potential ally against Lenin's USSR, not to mention disturbing reports about this Stalin figure likely to succeed him, but Germany is more likely to find common ground on a temporary basis with Moscow than against.

This, of course, is not acceptable and so something must be done to ease the situation in Europe vis a vis possible German revanchist tendencies.

A diplomatic confrontation takes place where the United Kingdon not only insists on a second revisionist conference of Versailles but informs France that the upcoming seizure of the Ruhr industrial region will cause such destabilization in Germany and Europe that if it is not averted the UK will have to consider the alliance with France over.

Shocked and outraged, France grimly accepts that the loss of the alliance with the UK would be too high a price to pay and, after angry protests in Paris and near hysteria from Warsaw, a conference is organized.


The Weimar Republic is, of course, delighted by this and immediately makes public announcements designed to improve the chances of this conference.

1) The border adjustments with Belgium, a mere three towns, and with Denmark, approved by popular will in a plebiscite, are very small and will not be subjects for discussion.

2) Any claim on Alsace-Lorraine is absolutely rejected.

3) Germany insists that the Saar basin remains German soil but concedes that the coal mines shall remain in French hands until such time as the French coal mines flooded in 1918 are fully repaired, also offering any German assistance which might hasten that day.

*A unexpected side effect of this is, after quite a bit of public outrage in Germany, the destruction of Ludendorff as a political player. The perceived need to protect Hindenburg leads the German government to place the onus for what they now declare an unacceptable act on Ludendorff but to make a serious effort to present Ludendorff as some kind of rogue officer acting on his own.


4) Weimar hopes(expects) that changes in the military restrictions will follow but agrees in advance that any such changes will not commence until a set number of years after a successful conference is concluded. Berlin quietly informs London and Paris that with the current economic situation there really isn't much prospect of major rearmament for a few years.

*Given the recent Spartacist uprisings and the strict gun control in Germany, plus the proven usefulness of the friekorps as a sort of reserve, a standing army with a few more divisions of infantry is seen as the immediate need.

5) As a sop to France and the Little Entente and given Hungary's behavior under Bela Kun changes in the terms imposed on Hungary will not be up for discussion at this time. Austria will attend but other than reparations and military restrictions it is unclear what subjects would be raised.

6) Given the Greek debacle in Anatolia the British and French agree that Turkey will be invited in hopes of improving relations with Ankara.

7) Poland only attends at the last minute after France, itself unhappy, is forced to inform Warsaw that if a choice must be made between the British alliance and perhaps the Little Entente(Czechoslovakia) or the Polish alliance, well...also when informed flat out that Poland will be making concessions but which concessions may be significantly influenced by the role Poland plays at the affair.

*Anyone familiar with Poland's diplomatic involvment at the Treaty of Versailles already knows this will end badly.

8) As a late decision the USSR is invited to attend and a high level delegation does arrive.

9) The United States will not be attending as this is a conference under the auspices of the League of Nations and the US is not a member. Rumors that reductions in reparations against Germany may be followed by a united front on debts owed to the US causes a panic on Wall Street...



So in January 1924 the conference begins...
 
Hm, Belgium might actually accept talking about the border. IIRC, they did in OTL, and almost came to a deal (scuttled by France), so...
 
Hm, I'm not sure the world had realized how Stalin would turn out by that point... There were afraid of the USSR, but I'm not sure they knew Stalin would turn out to be the monster he was.

Also, Hungary was no longer led by Bela Kun in 1923 : Admiral Horthy had already made a coup againt the Communists, restoring the Kingdom. Yet, as the Hapsburg couldn't go back, Horthy became "Regent of a Kingdom without a King and Admiral of a nation without a fleet".
 
Yorel, nonetheless both the fact that Bela Kun was able to take power and, perhaps more significant, the period in which he was able to organize effective military resistance to Romania at a time when Hungary was seen as helpless would be remembered in 1923.
 
near hysteria from Warsaw
Quite so. At the time Władysław Grabski was the prime minister and Karol Bertoni was the ‘foreign minister’ equivalent. I need to freshen up on the latter to contribute to the discussion. Still, it all depends on the kind of concessions expected of Poland. Territorial? Basically non-negotiable. Minority rights? Minority Treaty was already in place and at the time reasonably respected. Economical? Favorable clauses were to expire in 18 months anyway.
 

Typo

Banned
This is basically the Locarno pact, except for there will be some sort agreement on the eastern borders.
 
This is basically the Locarno pact, except for there will be some sort agreement on the eastern borders.
Or possibly not. If Poland sees territorial changes as non-negotiable, Germany might be, shall we say, interested in leaving that as an open question.
 
True, especially given that IOTL eastern German borders were not guaranteed at Locarno.

There’s one important butterfly resulting from an early 1924 conference that would end unfavorably to Poland. Grabki’s government is undermined and most likely replaced, as it was after the Spa Conference. Thus, there are severe problems with implementing the monetary reform, likely a significant blow to Polish economy.
 

Typo

Banned
Or possibly not. If Poland sees territorial changes as non-negotiable, Germany might be, shall we say, interested in leaving that as an open question.
In OTL it was left as an open question
True, especially given that IOTL eastern German borders were not guaranteed at Locarno.
Or, more importantly, the western Polish borders
 
If clever Germany might limit demands to that part of Silesia lost plus Danzig, which isn't even part of Poland, perhaps offering Poland the same guarantees for trade they gave Czechoslovakia. If Poland refuses to accept such generous terms...
 
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