alternatehistory.com

Suppose the Pacific War never breaks out and the international relations in that region remain frozen in their 1940 configuration a few years longer—Britain and France supplying Nationalist China by way of Burma and Vietnam, American neutrality, no embargo on Japan, modest Soviet support of the Nationalists. How would the Sino-Japanese War ultimately end?

The Japanese showed as late as the Ichigo offensive that they still outclassed most of the Nationalist forces, but a lot of Chiang’s best troops then were in Burma. Without that distraction, would the Nationalists perform better, and could they turn the tables on Japan?

Could the Japanese cut off supplies to China by taking Kunming and cutting the routes from the south?

Would the combination of Japanese success and the Henan Famine force the Nationalists to the negotiating table without cobelligerants? Would Wang Jingwei’s regime succeed in creating a legitimate, Japanese-backed ROC? And what would a Japanese-satellite China look like?

Would Chiang get overthrown, and would another Chinese leader be more open to either submitting to Japan or succeed in getting direct Soviet involvement?
Top