Second Sino-French War over Indochina

octoberman

Banned
POD 1934 long march fails completely CCP is eliminated
Second Sino Japanese war still happens, KMT hold out until Japan is defeated and surrenders to USA , Chiang occupies japanese occupied china and He is allowed to occupy Indo China until French return as in OTL but refuses to withdraw since there is no CCP left to fight

would france go to war over this or makes peace since their navy was destroyed WW2 ?
if war happens they who would U.S and U.S.S.R react ?
 
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Retro_Reaction

USA and USSR response could be reminiscent of their response to the French War in Algeria. The USA doesn't care because they need the French presence in Europe. The USSR does not care because there is no communist group they could support.

France would still own the Southern part of Indochina as the British would give it to them as OTL, the French don't need anything more than the cargo ships to supply troops. Chiang probably agrees to give up Northern Indochina for the same reasons he did OTL, to receive the French concessions on the mainland. There's probably localised border skirmishes as the ROC tries to get more out of the peace deal and the USA just uses economic pressure on both sides to get the Chinese to withdraw and the French to concede.
 

Evil Crusader

I don't think it's particularly realistic China would distract herself in the middle of a still-existential struggle with Japan to grab Indochina. Doesn't achieve much and creates a lot of problems. But if they do, the French will probably have to give it up, because a China that more or less single handedly forces Japan out can eject France from Indochina every bit as easily.
 

octoberman

Banned
Evil Crusader said:
I don't think it's particularly realistic China would distract herself in the middle of a still-existential struggle with Japan to grab Indochina. Doesn't achieve much and creates a lot of problems. But if they do, the French will probably have to give it up, because a China that more or less single handedly forces Japan out can eject France from Indochina every bit as easily.
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may be you misread the post this is after
octoberman said:
Japan surrenders, Chiang occupies japanese occupied china and He is allowed to occupy Indo China
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Evil Crusader said:
But if they do, the French will probably have to give it up, because a China that more or less single handedly forces Japan out can eject France from Indochina every bit as easily.
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Japan surrenders to USA not China
 

Retro_Reaction

octoberman said:
may be they support Chiang in order to make his an ally


so no chance of KMT ruled indochina ?
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Chiang doesn't need the USSR, especially if they're not fighting a civil war. The only cards the USSR has to play is that they are occupying Manchuria, and that they can support the East Turkestan republic if they really want to be a pain. Ultimately there's no benefit that the USSR can give Chiang that the USA can't do better.

The KMT would probably try to dominate with the VNQDD, and they might turn out successfully, as a part of the early Vietminh's success was murdering opposition/people that might be able to siphon resources from their organisation into their own independence struggle, so you could see a KMT backed Capitalist Nationalist VNQDD being as successful as the Vietminh. But without as many supplies as a Vietminh backed by China plus the USSR, they're already at a disadvantage. They would make up for it by having a land border with a friendly power willing to supply them weapons, which only happened for the Vietminh in 1949. That and the Vietnamese historically hate the Chinese as much, if not more than the French.

I think it comes down to the fact, that post war, China is still in ruins, Chiang probably does not have the money for an extensive campaign.
 
tonycat77

tonycat77

Banned
A far less isolated China would probably go India and annex their occupied cities in a Goa fashion.
They would probably also kick the french out of indochina easily.
 

Citycat

Roosevelt disliked French colonialism. I doubt there would be a Sino-French War as France was not in a strong position post WWII. The US would likely support China and pressure France to give up Indochina.

The USSR would be focused on Eastern Europe and not care too much about Vietnam at this time. If anything they would also be trying to court Nationalist China and would be glad to see the French endure a set back.
 
H.R (Slash) Pickens

H.R (Slash) Pickens

Retro_Reaction said:
I think it comes down to the fact, that post war, China is still in ruins, Chiang probably does not have the money for an extensive campaign
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the Communists in roughly the same position, if not worse in 1950 intervened in Korea. while you could argue ideological differences and all that kind of stuff, it doesnt change the fact that China, an underdeveloped nation, fresh out of over a decade of wars, pushed back UN forces and fought them to a stalemate on the Peninsula.
Retro_Reaction said:
Chiang doesn't need the USSR, especially if they're not fighting a civil war. The only cards the USSR has to play is that they are occupying Manchuria, and that they can support the East Turkestan republic if they really want to be a pain. Ultimately there's no benefit that the USSR can give Chiang that the USA can't do better.
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you could argue that the USSR was a better friend during the Second Sino-Japanese War, and that they were not only closer, occupation of Manchuria, and that the USSR is closer ideologically to the ROC than the USA, and Chiang had poor relations with americans like Stillwell, and Chinese influence in America would end when Roosevelt died. (Roosevelt was VERY Pro-ROC) Not to mention China is also far more likely to go Non-Aligned than Pro-Soviet, or fall under US Influence.
 

Pete55

martymcfly said:
Roosevelt disliked French colonialism. I doubt there would be a Sino-French War as France was not in a strong position post WWII. The US would likely support China and pressure France to give up Indochina.
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FDR being dead crimps his influence, but not having a Soviet influence in the area crimps later US interest in the area in a way that probably is pro China in order to keep Chiang on the 'good guys team'.

The trouble with France fighting in indo China against China, just expanding on what you've said already, is that (A) without US support they really can't pay for or supply the war, and (B) Chiang has quite a large number of decently equipped divisions. It's one thing for France to fight guerrillas in Vietnam but quite another for them to fight several dozen veteran divisions in the same place.

@octoberman , that's really what it comes back to for me: France isn't in a position to sustain the numbers of troops needed (probably a few Corp at least, and then only with lavish fire support). I also suspect a Suez style US preclusion of French action in the area in order to prop Chiang, although if France is stubborn war may come anyway.
 

octoberman

Banned
Evil Crusader said:
OTL they briefly occupied it, but only as a show of power and Chiang did not want to hold it, despite the Americans telling them to keep it.
That said, if China wants to hold it, the French are simply going to swallow up this one blow.
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Chiang wants to project power outside since there is no communist threat
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
A second Sino-French war over Indochina, where a Mao-led Communist China leads it into the war, is simply far more likely and plausible than a war over Indochina after WWII between France and a Chiang-led Nationalist China.

Mao intervening on the side of Ho Chi Minh and the Viet Minh and tackling some French forces in northern Vietnam could be somewhat like his intervention in Korea, just in a different setting. Mao strikes me as having an greater spirit of international adventure and commitment to international causes.
 
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raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Evil Crusader said:
OTL they briefly occupied it, but only as a show of power and Chiang did not want to hold it, despite the Americans telling them to keep it.
That said, if China wants to hold it, the French are simply going to swallow up this one blow.
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If this happens- I would assume initially China's clients are Laos and KMT backed VNQDD-led "North Vietnam" with its capital in Hanoi ruling north of the 16th parallel. British forces occupying south of the 16th parallel would turn over "South Vietnam", Cambodia and far southern Laos to the French. The Chinese would back the VNQDD declaration of independence.

The US China Lobby would support backing Vietnamese independence at this time. Not as a matter of highest priority, but it would be the group, and the Republican Party's, stated preference.

Europeanists and Atlanticists in the State Department would support continued French ties with Indochina in order to not alienate France. So would British interlocutors with Americans.

VNQDD would support insurgents in the French zones.

The French would have to cut deals with other local Vietnamese and colonial factions being in a weaker diplomatic and military position with China trying to exert more influence via supporting an independent Vietnamese client state. So the French, unlike OTL, will not try shenanigans like trying to formally separate Annam from Cochinchina. They will have to make considerable autonomy promises to Vietnamese willing to talk to them and try to continue to sell continued French Union membership involving a customs union and trade preferences, a military protectorate, and French oversight of Vietnam's foreign policy, but much more opportunity for politically ambitious Vietnamese in local administration than the pre-war regime.

The French will be forced to promise all this even if delivery comes up short, and will also have to use China and Sinophobia as a foil, basically making the argument that any government set up and left behind by the Chinese can't be truly independent and any pro-Chinese or Chinese-backed party like the VNQDD can't be true patriots, because they have Chinese imperialist stink and cooties on them.

The only other way it might go down would be if the Chinese occupy it all and then French don't get a chance to set up any footholds.

If France is seen unable to reestablish itself in either northern Vietnam, or in any of Indochina, as of 1945-46, because of Chinese obstruction, what will be the net domino effect on the larger French Empire?

Does it stimulate the Algerian revolt and war and French concession of independence there to happen earlier?

Does it change nothing and that struggle starts in earnest only in 1954 like OTL?

Or does the lack of France being seeing fighting and then losing at Dien Bien Phu in '54, slow down the emergence of the FLN insurgency, and slow down the concession of Moroccan and Tunisian independence in 1954, and leave France with more endurance to persist in putting down Algerian revolt for an extra decade or so into the 70s or 1980?
 
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