Second Mexican War

The Zimmerman telegram aside, there was ample opportunity for the US to
get fully sucked into the violent maelstrom that was Mexico in the 2nd
decade of the 20th century. Now obviously Mexico wouldn't be able to
withstand a full blown invasion so the two main issues to discuss about such
a situation is the cause and the result. What was the most likely way for
there to have been such an escalation? And what was the most likely result
of such an occupation? Would there be another Mexican cession? The
northern third of the nation had under 5 person per sq. kilometer. There
were also the northern oil fields, even without a cession, rights could granted
exclusively to American companies.

Mexicanpopulation_1910.jpg
 

The Vulture

Banned
Easy- follow the Battle of Carrizal with a few impolitic statements and generally escalate things until there is a de facto (followed shortly by de jure) war in 1916.
 
Easy- follow the Battle of Carrizal with a few impolitic statements and generally escalate things until there is a de facto (followed shortly by de jure) war in 1916.

Interesting, escalation at that time would definitely serve to distract the US from the situation in Europe.

And what do you think of the aftermath.
 
An intersting (IMO) side note - my grandfather's older brother (later a Brig. Gen.) was part of Pershing's Mexican Expeditionary Force and the grandfather of a childhood friend of mine fouight alongside Pancho Villa. Fascinating and close to home butterfly possibilities here.
 
An intersting (IMO) side note - my grandfather's older brother (later a Brig. Gen.) was part of Pershing's Mexican Expeditionary Force and the grandfather of a childhood friend of mine fouight alongside Pancho Villa. Fascinating and close to home butterfly possibilities here.

That's cool. What did your grandfather's brother do in the Expiditionary Force?
 
Based on a POD of the US forces chasing Pancho Villa getting involved in a shooting war with Mexican government forces (or more properly the forces of the Carranza faction that was then winning the Mexican Civil War): My guess is that ironically the US intervention strengthen Pancho Villa and his bunch, unless the US army catches him. That would not be easy.

So let's say that the US army fights a couple of major battles with the Carranza faction. Historically there was one fairly serious clash in June 1916 that left a number of troops of the Carranzaista faction dead. Historically, Wilson was afraid fighting would escalate, and mobilized 75,000 National Guard troops along the border. The situation was certainly capable of escalating out of control. There were plenty of hotheads and poorly trained soldiers on the ground on both sides. So the US expeditionary force finds itself fighting Carranzaista forces, and probably random local nationalistic Mexicans outraged by what they perceive as an invasion . I'm guessing that means that Pershing and company have to fight their way out of Mexico, while diplomats are trying to patch together a cease-fire, and US battleships are poised off the Mexican coast.

Rising casualties on both sides, and the political damage to the Wilson administration from having US troops seen as being chased by Mexicans make the war hard to stop once it gets going. The US has the potential to apply overwhelming force, but doesn't want to because of the threatening situation in Europe, and would have difficulty supporting a major force in Northern Mexico given the climate and poor infrastructure. At the same time, Wilson doesn't want the image that his administration let US troops get chased out of Mexico, especially not in an election year.

So, the US sends more troops in to rescue Pershing and company and the Carranzaistas react to what they perceive (correctly to some extent) as a US invasion. Several pitched battles result, with the Mexicans probably getting the worst of it because of US firepower, but with significant US casualties. The Mexicans have been fighting their civil war for years and have a lot more combat experience than the US troops do.

I'm guessing that the fighting eventually dies down. The US may want to grab off more hunks of Mexico, but they don't want the Mexicans who would come with that territory. So the border probably doesn't change.

The aftermath could get interesting though. The fighting would materially weaken the Carranzaistas, but also legitimize them to some extent as a government that stood up to the US. On the other hand, Villa had established his anti-US credentials, and every Carranzaista army soldier killed fighting the US is one not available to fight Villa. I'm guessing Villa makes a comeback in terms of his power, which had been waning. The Mexican Civil War gets a new lease on life.

The Wilson administration has a major political problem. IN the election of 1916, their slogan was "He kept us out of war." Doesn't work so well when the US has just fought a fair-sized war, especially a murky affair that didn't lead to any gain for the US. The 1916 election was about as close as an election could get anyway, with a 3000 vote margin in California deciding it in terms of electoral votes. I'm guessing the Republicans win and we have President Charles Evans Hughes taking office. What does that do to the US entry to World War I? Does the US enter the war? If so, does it pursue peace in the same way? Probably not. Wilson's approach was idealistic but quite impractical.
 
I'm guessing the Republicans win and we have President Charles Evans Hughes taking office. What does that do to the US entry to World War I? Does the US enter the war? If so, does it pursue peace in the same way? Probably not. Wilson's approach was idealistic but quite impractical.

Charles Evans Hughes would probably be willing to enter into the war at the same time or a little earlier than Wilson. As an aside, Hughes would become President in November 1916, due to a little fit Wilson planned to throw if not elected. He stated that he was going to force his Secretary of State and Vice-President to resign, appoint Hughes as Secretary of State, and then resign, making Hughes president four months early.
 
I'm guessing that the fighting eventually dies down. The US may want to grab off more hunks of Mexico, but they don't want the Mexicans who would come with that territory. So the border probably doesn't change.

The aftermath could get interesting though. The fighting would materially weaken the Carranzaistas, but also legitimize them to some extent as a government that stood up to the US. On the other hand, Villa had established his anti-US credentials, and every Carranzaista army soldier killed fighting the US is one not available to fight Villa. I'm guessing Villa makes a comeback in terms of his power, which had been waning. The Mexican Civil War gets a new lease on life.
POD sounds good, but was the mindset of the country at the time amenable to such a nebulous result? I'd think that once the US is sucked into the war that Wilson would have to be in it to win it. Which means coming up with some concrete goals, such as the US favored _ faction in control of the government.

There's very few Mexicans in the north. Only 52,272 in all of Baja California.
1,085,454 in Baja, Sonora, Coahuila and Chihuahua combined. The US has 100 million people at this point, it's a drop in the bucket.
 
Top