Second Mexican Empire if Mexico were smaller

James Polk wanted the United States to annex Baja, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Tamaulipas, and Nuevo Leone at the end of the Mexican-American War, but Nicholas Trist, the representative for the United States, went rogue and Mexico retained those territories.

During the French intervention in Mexico, Juarez's capital in exile was in Chihuahua and it was the north that was the bastion for liberal Republicanism.

How would the French intervention in Mexico and the fate of the Second Mexican Empire have been affected by the United States controlling the Mexican north?
 
I seriously doubt that the USA can hold that territory, not least because any incoming Mexican government is going to denounce such a treaty as made under duress

But let's say that the USA spends a couple of decades putting down rebellions and "pacifying" these regions - then in all probability there is a cross-border guerilla war, with renegades and refugees based in whatever is now Northern Mexico, and there is American intervention in Mexican politics, with money and naval actions to try to support the opposition to any candidate who looks like they might get strong enough to oppose the USA

Mexico IS going to be a basket--case but it is going to be of a different order than OTL. If Napoleon III decides to intervene beyond the original Maritime Powers debt-fuelled intervention then he has to know that he is interfering in an area that is ultra sensitive to the USA

Any European-backed head of Mexico is going to be exactly the sort of guy that the USA has just spent 2 decades making sure can never establish their rule in Mexico. The only solution to this is going to be full-scale French army and naval intervention so that the USA knows it can't fuck with the guy in Mexico City. Anything short of that and the USA will engineer their quick removal using tried and tested practices
 
I seriously doubt that the USA can hold that territory, not least because any incoming Mexican government is going to denounce such a treaty as made under duress
The Area had low population of Mexicans during the 1840s, The Mexicans will overtaken very quickly.
 
The North of today's Mexico had about a half-million people in 1850, mostly concentrated in Nuevo Leone and Tamaulipas. Vidaurri (who controlled Nuevo Leone and Coahuila) was willing to ally with anybody to retain control of his realm (Confederates, Juarez, the French/Maximilian) so it wouldn't be any harder for the US to control the Mexican north than it was to control the OTL west assuming Washington allows Vidaurri to do what he wants. The Mexican north wasn't really integrated into the country thoroughly or settled heavily until the 1880s and 1890s.

I don't think Maximilian or the French would be dumb enough to intervene in US territory.

Meanwhile if you look at the map of territory the French/Imperials controlled in Mexico before being driven out, most of the lands they didn't control would be part of the US here.

northamerica18660122-French-withdrawal-from-Mexico.png
 
The North of today's Mexico had about a half-million people in 1850, mostly concentrated in Nuevo Leone and Tamaulipas. Vidaurri (who controlled Nuevo Leone and Coahuila) was willing to ally with anybody to retain control of his realm (Confederates, Juarez, the French/Maximilian) so it wouldn't be any harder for the US to control the Mexican north than it was to control the OTL west assuming Washington allows Vidaurri to do what he wants. The Mexican north wasn't really integrated into the country thoroughly or settled heavily until the 1880s and 1890s.

I don't think Maximilian or the French would be dumb enough to intervene in US territory.

Meanwhile if you look at the map of territory the French/Imperials controlled in Mexico before being driven out, most of the lands they didn't control would be part of the US here.

northamerica18660122-French-withdrawal-from-Mexico.png

Judging by that map, doesn't it make it seem like it might be easier for the French to establish control here (provided that the US is dealing with a Civil War to distract them during the initial phases?)
 
It would be a much tougher fight for the liberals, but after the formation of the Third Republic, France is bound to pull out. I can't imagine the Third Republic, made up of liberal and secularist republicans who feel disdain for a conservative empire, support a conservative empire fighting liberal and secular republicans. And without its French masters, the Second Mexican Empire would collapse.
 
Judging by that map, doesn't it make it seem like it might be easier for the French to establish control here (provided that the US is dealing with a Civil War to distract them during the initial phases?)

That's what I thought. France perhaps might finish securing the country early on here.

It would be a much tougher fight for the liberals, but after the formation of the Third Republic, France is bound to pull out. I can't imagine the Third Republic, made up of liberal and secularist republicans who feel disdain for a conservative empire, support a conservative empire fighting liberal and secular republicans. And without its French masters, the Second Mexican Empire would collapse.

But if France has already defeated the liberals before 1870, that point would be moot.
 
The butterfly’s from a larger annexation in 1848 would almost certainly eliminate the French invasion. You’d need the American civil war to happen almost exactly at the same time as it does OTL, and for Mexico to be in a similar situation as it was in OTL. With such a significant POD that far in the past things aren’t going to line up to create a ‘perfect storm’ situation that was unlikely in OTL.
 
Top