So I was listening to the revolutions podcast the other day and I was struck by how close the US and Mexico came to going to war during the pancho villa expedition, basicly both presidents don't want a war (Wilson because he thout the US was going to be dragged into WW1 and Carranza becuz he knew he could never win that war) but the men on the ground in Chihuahua don't think that way, the Mexicans felt really offended by the beach in sovereignty and the Americans really don't like Carranza, his polices or what they felt was willfull hiderense in there search for villa, perishing aperintly really wanted to occupy all of Chihuahua inoreder to complete his mission and that world have lead to shooting, not to mechen lingering dislike from the privius occupation of Veracruz and original support for villa erlyer during the civil war.
I don't think the Mexicans can win this war, even if they rally around the flag (which isn't garented) they still are far less equipped and Mexico is in a real bad way after over half a decade of civil war at this point. But I don't think it will be a cake walk, the Carranzan army is both extremely experienced and lead by one of the few generals not directly invalid in ww1 to take lessons at this point (I'm looking at you cadorna!) And the american army is really inexperienced. So the inical American push is more thin likely going to end up flat on its face, and in order for the US to continue its more thin likely going to have to mobilize, which takes time, a lot longer then it did in ww1 sence alot of important lessons had been learned during the mobilization of the national gared for the villa crisis. But even whith that I don't see Mexico lasting, 2 years on the outside (do to how large and mountainous Mexico is).
Now for europe this is basicly the worst news the allies could get, the zemermon telegram more then likely never gets sent (sence the Germans already got what they wanted) and American industrial capacity is going to be reduced to europe in order to equip the invation of Mexico. not that maters to much sence britain probably gos bank rupt whith out non backed US lones.
I'm curious if the US would back the diaz that came back and stared a revolt agenst Carranza, I'm serten the US woulnt want to occupy all of Mexico and the conservative would be the most apiling to the US.
I don't think the Mexicans can win this war, even if they rally around the flag (which isn't garented) they still are far less equipped and Mexico is in a real bad way after over half a decade of civil war at this point. But I don't think it will be a cake walk, the Carranzan army is both extremely experienced and lead by one of the few generals not directly invalid in ww1 to take lessons at this point (I'm looking at you cadorna!) And the american army is really inexperienced. So the inical American push is more thin likely going to end up flat on its face, and in order for the US to continue its more thin likely going to have to mobilize, which takes time, a lot longer then it did in ww1 sence alot of important lessons had been learned during the mobilization of the national gared for the villa crisis. But even whith that I don't see Mexico lasting, 2 years on the outside (do to how large and mountainous Mexico is).
Now for europe this is basicly the worst news the allies could get, the zemermon telegram more then likely never gets sent (sence the Germans already got what they wanted) and American industrial capacity is going to be reduced to europe in order to equip the invation of Mexico. not that maters to much sence britain probably gos bank rupt whith out non backed US lones.
I'm curious if the US would back the diaz that came back and stared a revolt agenst Carranza, I'm serten the US woulnt want to occupy all of Mexico and the conservative would be the most apiling to the US.