Second Korean War, late-60s

MacCaulay

Banned
November 2, 1966: KPA ambush on UN patrol, 6 US casualties, 1 South Korean casualty
August 29, 1967: KPA raid on Camp Bonifas
January 21, 1968: Assassination attempt on South Korean President Park Chung Hee, The Blue House Raid
January 23, 1968: Seizure of USS Pueblo off the east coast of the DPRK
October 30, 1968: Ulchin-Samchok landings by 120 men of the KPA 124th Army Unit
April 15, 1969: KPAF fighters shoot down a US Navy EC-121M aircraft over the Sea of Japan.
1971 Silmido Incident: Elite ROK troops trained to kill Kim Il Sung mutiny and go to Seoul.
August 18, 1976: Axe Murder Incident on the DMZ by KPA soldiers

So...let's just suppose that for some reason (the government of South Korea is more hawkish), after the Blue House Raid there is a concerted effort by the RoK Army to mobilize for war.
Then, on October 30, they use the landings as the straw that broke the camel's back and decide that instead of waiting for an invasion that the government feels is imminent, they'll attack across the DMZ first.

How would the forces on the peninsula stack up in late-1968 for an offensive thrust into North Korea?
 
So...let's just suppose that for some reason (the government of South Korea is more hawkish), after the Blue House Raid there is a concerted effort by the RoK Army to mobilize for war.
Then, on October 30, they use the landings as the straw that broke the camel's back and decide that instead of waiting for an invasion that the government feels is imminent, they'll attack across the DMZ first.

How would the forces on the peninsula stack up in late-1968 for an offensive thrust into North Korea?

Would the Soviets and the United States support this conflict? The Soviet Union would have to see the North Koreans as at least partially responsible and, at any rate, they're now profoundly unhappy with China.

China, meanwhile, is going to want to avoid a war with the United States at this point as well, owing to said tensions with the Soviet Union.

This probably leads to a backroom arrangement with the Chinese and Soviet Union willing to have a unified Neutral Korea--a Second conflict that would be attributed to North Korean aggression and I think the DRPK is going to be gone when the USA lands in force, making the whole wargaming (sorry Mac) rather pointless.

The other question is what price the Soviet Union and PRC ask for this arrangement. Vietnam and Prague Spring might be good points for a Soviet Reciprocal Demand. The impact of a Neutral Unified Korea would be hard to judge, but it would probably be increasingly Pro-West as the cold war moves on.
 
Hmm, that could be an idea. I mean, by the time of the Nixon administration, there was a consensus that the US should limit participation in the Vietnam War, and even Nixon must have realized that the protests were only going to get worse (although they really didn't start off until the early seventies, right?).
 
Protests didn't start until the late seventies? :eek: "Hey, hey, LBJ, how many kids did you kill today" ring a bell?
Yes, but they really heated up, after expansion into Cambodia.
The irony is the man from Yorba Linda knew Counterinsurgecy, better than most. From a miltary stand point he was right.
 

wormyguy

Banned
It's worth noting that North Korea was wealthier and more powerful (largely due to Soviet subsidies) until the late 70s. It's unlikely that South Korea would pick a fight like this. In 1968, America is stuck in Vietnam, and I'm not sure we'd be willing to support an offensive strike by South Korea into North Korea. Their saving grace is that the Soviets are involved in pacifying Czechoslovakia, and Sino-Soviet relations have recently had a severe breakdown.

Assuming that this situation does happen (and I consider it unlikely), then most likely US forces won't support any offensive thrusts by South Korea, but will defend the ceasefire line against a North Korean counteroffensive (we'd probably replace the South Korean government, too). If the South Koreans somehow manage to penetrate deep into North Korea then the Soviets will be forced to intervene.
 
PARK OUT, guess no last Bang.

We would really through out Park Chung Hee?, Aw shucks.
I guess the KCIA would take over, there were minders all over the Blue House. I think the ROK was getting stronger, by this time.
A Government of national unity, would have caused all koreans to rally
to defend the motherland.
Taiwan would help, Australia would help, even Degaulle said South Korea's indepedence was vital.
 
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