Second Italo-Ethiopian War in the 1920s

No, the economy is still shit and Libya need to be reconquered; there is a reason he choose to sign a non-aggression pact with Abyssinia in 1926
 

raharris1973

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The Italian economy was more shit in 1925 than 1935 ?

The Italian economy was really fluctuating differently than the dominant global situation then.
 
Why would Mussolini attack Ethiopia in the 1920s? As Luke states, the pacification of Italian Libya is still ongoing - I don't know much of the Italian economy during the 20s - and I'm pretty sure Mussolini focused on consolidating his hold over the Italian government. The Italians aren't in any position to launch an invasion of Ethiopia when their resources are going towards development of Italian Libya, Eritrea and Somalia or preparing for a future war in Ethiopia - I believe the Italians had begun planning for an invasion of Ethiopia by the late 20s or early 30s. So, why would the Italians invade when they have other matters to tend to?

Should the Italians invade in the 1920s, the League of Nations could do something about it (unlike IOTL) and enact effective economic sanctions which include coal and oil, along with closing the Suez Canal being closed to Italian shipping which is then forced to go through Gibraltar and the long way around Africa. The thing that interests me is whether or not the Ethiopians are going to able to win during the 20s as they have problems of their own - the conservative reactionary Zawditu is Empress and unwilling to modernize Ethiopia whereas Ras Tafari is attempting to implement reforms, being unsuccessful in convincing her and the nobility to pass many of these reforms. The Ethiopians may receive support from France who had been pro-Ethiopia in the past, assisting in lifting the arms embargo that Lij Iyasu had caused and even in providing support as far back as 1894-96, the First Italo-Ethiopian War. The thing is, the French (and by extension, the British) have no reason to support Mussolini as Hitler hasn't come to power and a rearming Germany isn't a threat until 1933 so the Ethiopians may not receive any arms embargo from the Great Powers. But whether the Ethiopians will win or not, is another story.
 

raharris1973

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Why would Mussolini attack Ethiopia in the 1920s? As Luke states, the pacification of Italian Libya is still ongoing - I don't know much of the Italian economy during the 20s - and I'm pretty sure Mussolini focused on consolidating his hold over the Italian government. The Italians aren't in any position to launch an invasion of Ethiopia when their resources are going towards development of Italian Libya, Eritrea and Somalia or preparing for a future war in Ethiopia - I believe the Italians had begun planning for an invasion of Ethiopia by the late 20s or early 30s. So, why would the Italians invade when they have other matters to tend to?

Should the Italians invade in the 1920s, the League of Nations could do something about it (unlike IOTL) and enact effective economic sanctions which include coal and oil, along with closing the Suez Canal being closed to Italian shipping which is then forced to go through Gibraltar and the long way around Africa. The thing that interests me is whether or not the Ethiopians are going to able to win during the 20s as they have problems of their own - the conservative reactionary Zawditu is Empress and unwilling to modernize Ethiopia whereas Ras Tafari is attempting to implement reforms, being unsuccessful in convincing her and the nobility to pass many of these reforms. The Ethiopians may receive support from France who had been pro-Ethiopia in the past, assisting in lifting the arms embargo that Lij Iyasu had caused and even in providing support as far back as 1894-96, the First Italo-Ethiopian War. The thing is, the French (and by extension, the British) have no reason to support Mussolini as Hitler hasn't come to power and a rearming Germany isn't a threat until 1933 so the Ethiopians may not receive any arms embargo from the Great Powers. But whether the Ethiopians will win or not, is another story.


All good reasons why the Italians would not do so.

What if through a little bit of multiPODdage we speed up the pacification of Libya and make Mussolini or the Fascist regime more reckless or heedless of potential international constraints? Maybe then by the late 1920s Italy does not do a nonaggression pact and escalates tensions, leading to war before the decade is over.

Britain and France will be unhappy in principle with the Italian aggression, I suspect. And, they won't also be worried about Germany in the near term either, so that lifts a major constraint.. But, would they consider the Ethiopians ultimately worth taking risks for?

They might or might not. But perhaps a more self-confident Italian Fascist regime could calculate they would not have as much skin as Italy in this game.

The toughest part is probably to arrange for Libya to be much less of a headache for Italy.
 
All good reasons why the Italians would not do so.

What if through a little bit of multiPODdage we speed up the pacification of Libya and make Mussolini or the Fascist regime more reckless or heedless of potential international constraints? Maybe then by the late 1920s Italy does not do a nonaggression pact and escalates tensions, leading to war before the decade is over.

Britain and France will be unhappy in principle with the Italian aggression, I suspect. And, they won't also be worried about Germany in the near term either, so that lifts a major constraint.. But, would they consider the Ethiopians ultimately worth taking risks for?

They might or might not. But perhaps a more self-confident Italian Fascist regime could calculate they would not have as much skin as Italy in this game.

The toughest part is probably to arrange for Libya to be much less of a headache for Italy.
Are you talking about a earlier Second Italo-Ethiopian War or World War 2?

I'm not completely sure about Great Britain but France would be more likely to assist Ethiopia for the reasons I mentioned above as well as stopping the expansion of Anglo-Italian influence throughout the Horn if not being able to expand her own colonial empire in the event of a potential Second Italo-Ethiopia War, something such as French expansion into southern Eritrea from French Somaliland. At the very least, if the French decided to help Ethiopia short of providing "volunteers", they can simply funnel in money and arms into Ethiopia during the war but this might be just WW1 surplus. The Italians might back down if the Suez Canal is closed or you might have Mussolini consider this an act of war and thus, the Italians declare war on Britain and France. This may lead to World War 2 or just a conflict confined to the Horn of Africa if the Italians are lucky enough but I doubt that they'd remain in control of Italian Eritrea or Somaliland. At most, they'll be left with Italian Libya or even Somaliland.

I'm not sure about how to have the Italians pacify Libya faster so you might have to ask LukeDalton about this. I assume you'd need something from the Italo-Turkish War of 1911-12, something like having the Ottomans suffer a more decisive defeat in Libya or just not organize the Senussi resistance by sending Ottoman Army officers - I'm not much of an expert, I will admit that.
 
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