Second Front in Europe in 1943

TFSmith121

Banned
How many were sunk trying to get away, however?

Not one ship IOTL bringing German troops into Tunisia was sunk by the Allies. Not a single one. Force K didn't show up to Malta until November 23rd. The shipping was sufficient to bring in well over 100k reinforcements to Tunisia IOTL in November, they could bring out 100k men easily via ship and airlift from Benghazi and Tripoli. You don't really need a rearguard, because Monty didn't advance quickly after El Alamein and let Rommel continuously retreat quickly than the 8th army could arrive; by the time the PAA got to Benghazi only recon elements could follow; Monty didn't really even get combat elements capable of brushing aside the virtually nonexistent line at El Agheila until mid-December. Rommel and the Axis troops were effectively let go due to Monty not provisioning for a rapid follow up on pushing the Axis out of Egypt and gave Rommel all the time he needed to escape.

Allied troops landing in Bone and advancing on North Tunisia would get there about the time Rommel was in Benghazi IOTL and would take probably 2 weeks at least by land to get to the Tunisian-Libyan border is significant strength. They still cannot draw supply via Tunis and Bizerte due to nearby Axis air and naval bases and the inherent caution of the Wallies. They need to cement their hold on Tunisia first and bring up air units to provide air cover for forward supply, which gives Rommel and his troops all the time they need to get out before Monty or Torch can get to Tripoli.

If the Allies land at Bone and are able to reach Tunis and Bizerte before the Axis there is no way that even Hitler can try and stick out Africa, Mussolini and all his advisers would be on him to get out while the way is open. IOTL the only reason that anyone said they could make a stand in North Africa after Torch was that Axis reinforcements successfully landed at Bizerte and Tunis first and checked the Allied push into Tunisia, meaning the bridgehead was viable; they then reinforced the front line faster than the Allies as the weather worsened and shut down operations for both sides. ITTL the Allies would get there first and shut down Axis attempts to bring in reinforcements, meaning that its clear that all was lost, but then weather would hamper the Allies in Tunisia from rapidly advancing to secure the entire country, while Rommel is bugging out from Benghazi and Tripoli. By the time the Allies lock things down the PAA is out.


See above. The Allies stopped literally none of the Axis ships and aircraft bringing reinforcements into Tunisia IOTL and Malta wasn't reinforced by Force K until November 23rd and didn't really get good at sinking Axis ships until January.



Actually it does because those were the garrison forces that had spent all of 1942 defending France. 10th Panzer was on standby to join the fight at Dieppe, but the Brits pulled out. It was meant to guard against a cross channel invasion and if not committed in the Mediterranean it was going to stay in France. Rommel and his evacuees have Sicily and Sardinia, there is already a garrison in Greece, there needed to be troops in France and 10th Panzer+OTL Tunisian troops including the Hermann Goering Panzer Division will be in France in reserve, while the forces that historically defended Sicily and Italy after Tunisia will either be in the East or in strategic reserve.

If the Allies don't move on Sicily in early 1943 or really anywhere in the Mediterranean within a few months of seizing all of North Africa the Axis are really going to be also worried about what is going on in Britain, especially as IOTL they were well aware of the invasion building in 1944, they just didn't know where it was going to come. So if its clear that there is training and ships building up in Britain in 1943 and no follow up on Torch within a few months, then its very clear that France is a potential target very shortly. Then the historical forces that were in Italy/Sicily IOTL will be available for France ITTL. Also if there is a significant threat of invasion of France Kursk is not going to be launched in July; it will either go in May to preempt whatever is building in Britain or not be launched at all to ensure there are reserves available, especially if there is no major invasion in the Mediterranean prior. IOTL the Germans were aware of the invasion fleet in the Mediterranean in 1943, they just didn't know what target was going to be invaded; they were aware of the invasion fleet in Britain in 1944 and that an invasion was coming, just not where it would be aimed. So ITTL they will know there is an invasion in France coming and will have forces on hand to fight in France that Spring/Summer.

How many were sunk trying to get away, however?;)

The Italian ships carrying troops from Sicily to Tunisia have a somewhat less threatening AOR than the same trying to get from Benghazi past Malta to Calabria, do they not?

And it's not like Benghazi was ever much of a port.

Again, Hitler was not especially well known for his willingness to order fighting retreats, was he? Perhaps I've missed one.

Then there's the issue of the reality the Axis were routinely confused by Allied deception operations from 1942 onwards, as well as the minor issue of the Red Army and Air Force hovering over the Eastern Front.

Rationally, the Germans would have avoided ZITADELLE as it was, even without an Allid threat in the west - but as it was, even with an Allied threat in the south, they went whole hog.

Again, bottom line - a second front at any point after 1942 does nothing positive for the Axis and everything negative for them; its kind of the point.

Either the Germans trade space for time in the east, or they try to hold the Soviets off in the east while mounting a minimal defense in the west; they can't do both, and in either event, VE Day comes early.

Best,
 

Deleted member 1487

How many were sunk trying to get away, however?;)
May 1943 is a vastly different situation to November 1942. For one thing the offensive surface naval forces weren't based in Malta until the end of November and weren't interdicting things until December.

The Italian ships carrying troops from Sicily to Tunisia have a somewhat less threatening AOR than the same trying to get from Benghazi past Malta to Calabria, do they not?
Ships to Tripoli and Benghazi looped away from Malta and were really not getting sunk in significant numbers until 1943.


And it's not like Benghazi was ever much of a port.
No, but you can get out probably 1500-2700 tons per day (I'm getting varying capacities) until the British show up in combat force a week after Rommel first got there. The rest you can move to Tripoli and have most of November and part of December to use to evacuate 45k tons per month, 5 ships at a time.

Again, Hitler was not especially well known for his willingness to order fighting retreats, was he? Perhaps I've missed one.
Different situation get different responses.

Then there's the issue of the reality the Axis were routinely confused by Allied deception operations from 1942 onwards, as well as the minor issue of the Red Army and Air Force hovering over the Eastern Front.

Rationally, the Germans would have avoided ZITADELLE as it was, even without an Allid threat in the west - but as it was, even with an Allied threat in the south, they went whole hog.

Again, bottom line - a second front at any point after 1942 does nothing positive for the Axis and everything negative for them; its kind of the point.

Either the Germans trade space for time in the east, or they try to hold the Soviets off in the east while mounting a minimal defense in the west; they can't do both, and in either event, VE Day comes early.

Best,
The fact is the Axis picked up Allied theater intentions in 1943 and 1944, so will know if there is an invasion of France coming. If there is then Hitler probably won't be ordering offensives, like in 1944 with the French invasion on the horizon. Of course a 2nd front whereever it comes will be a disaster for the Germans and spell their doom in the long run, I'm just saying that without Sicily/Italy and an abbreviated Tunisia due to a more aggressive invasion means the Germans are much stronger than you are allowing for in France, relatively far stronger than they were in 1944 compared to the Wallies. The thing is in the long run the Allies will win, it just won't be with a march into Paris in 1943, it will be a long bloody attrition campaign in France that the Allies can afford and the Germans in the long run cannot. It will be a better front to wear the Germans down than Italy was, but it will also be more costly. It probably will also screw up the historical course of the Eastern Front, with Germany staying on the defensive to free up reserves for the West and doing themselves the favor of not making the mistake to attack. So they can defend better than they did IOTL and probably do better relative to OTL in the East for somewhat longer. That probably means ITTL with the heavier Wallied casualties that do end up conquering more of Germany in the end and probably get the Italians to switch sides in 1944 sometime and avoid the damage they took IOTL. Germany's manpower collapses sooner, but comes at a higher cost in Wallied lives to do so.

So in the end if the post war fall of the borders matters, the Wallies will do better ITTL, but will pay more in lives for that privilege.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Force K may not have been in Malta in November, 1942

Force K may not have been in Malta in November, 1942, but the Mediterranean Fleet was most certainly in Alexandria and the RAF and USAAF dominated the sky over western Egypt, eastern Libya, and points north.

The Axis aren't going to be getting much of anyone out of Cyrenaica in 1942 other than retreating west into Triploitania; certainly not depending on the Italian Navy they're not...

Rommel probably ends up going into the bag with what's left of the 15th and 21st Panzer, 90th and 164th Light, Centauro, the GF Division, and whatever else is left in Tripolitania; the Italian divisions in the PAA end up getting ground up in Egypt and/Cyrenaica. The Italians probably keep Superga and La Spezia in Sicily.

And 10th Panzer gets fed into the East, along with everything else that moves, other than the formations being resurrected in France from survivors, recovering wounded, old men, and boys.

As has been said, the Allies land in France in the summer of 1943, cross the Rhine in 1944, and Berlin falls the same year. Given the reality Allied troops were fighting and dying through to the end in 1945 and Allied civilians were being murdered on an increasingly rapid basis in the same period (historically), don't really see ending it in 1944 as a negative.

Best,
 
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Deleted member 1487

Force K may not have been in Malta in November, 1942, but the Mediterranean Fleet was most certainly in Alexandria and the RAF and USAAF dominated the sky over western Egypt, eastern Libya, and points north.

The Axis aren't going to be getting much of anyone out of Cyrenaica in 1942 other than retreating west into Triploitania; certainly not depending on the Italian Navy they're not...

Rommel probably ends up going into the bag with what's left of the 15th and 21st Panzer, 90th and 164th Light, Centauro, the GF Division, and whatever else is left in Tripolitania; the Italian divisions in the PAA end up getting ground up in Egypt and/Cyrenaica. The Italians probably keep Superga and La Spezia in Sicily.

And 10th Panzer gets fed into the East, along with everything else that moves, other than the formations being resurrected in France from survivors, recovering wounded, old men, and boys.

As has been said, the Allies land in France in the summer of 1943, cross the Rhine in 1944, and Berlin falls the same year. Given the reality Allied troops were fighting and dying through to the end in 1945 and Allied civilians were being murdered on an increasingly rapid basis in the same period (historically), don't really see ending it in 1944 as a negative.

Best,

I think we've got as far as we can with this conversation, you've clearly made up your mind.
 
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