Without the RN blockade, what is Germanys foreign trade situation in these altered circumstances? I cannot see France being anywhere near as effective at cutting off German trade, what with the need to keep their warships outside of (Neutral) British waters, and I cannot see the MN attempting open ocean interceptions of UK/US ships in anything more effective than their German counterparts with respect to French trade on French and Neutral ships.
I'm sure that their will be surface raiders used on both sides, but that these measures will not be anywhere near as effective at cutting off the foreign trade like OTL's WWI blockade, so while each side is going to suffer losses, it will not be as bad.
I discount French warships raiding the North sea by coming thru the English channel, as that would force the Eastern channel, a vital shipping lane, to become a battleground in this war.
So where would the trade war be fought, by what ships, and based where? As I understand it, the existing German navy was built with extremely cramped crew quarters, because they were built to fight in the North sea against the RN, so long term missions are going to be hard on the German crews, until they can built new ships, with long ranges, and proper crew accommodations for extended voyages.
The more I think about this, the more I am realizing that this isn't just a minor question, with easy and simple answers.
The Germans have an army constrained not by their total population, but by the Prussian Elites desire to retain control of the officer corps, as I understand this. Upthread, the French population/Army were listed as
France, 39.7 million, with ~4 million in the Army, while
Germany, 67.8 million, with just 4.5 million under arms, when it should have been ~6.78 million men if the same ratio were to be applied (and other than Prussian Elites, I see no reason to suppose that Germany couldn't have a proportional sized army to that of France). In either case, both sides mobilized far more troops than they started the war with, IIRC.
What do you folks think? Would we see some interesting commerce raiding going on, perhaps also based within the colonies adjacent seas? For that matter, what kind of Ground combat will be taking place in the African colonies of the warring nations? Resupply from Germany is going to be much harder than that from France, but then again, with the Germans on the doorstep, are the French going to be sending more manpower to Africa, or trying to pull troops from Africa to hold the lines?