Second Franco Prussian ( German ) war 1914

[Naval Aviation Fan]

I had some thoughts along the lines of hilarious meme's for this threads war.

Would it be like this meme...

Or would the above turn into something more like this later on...

I mean, if Germany was trying to goad France into yet another disastrous frontal assault, then the top image would be great to convey German superiority, and French impotence, but the problem with that, is if you do it to many times, what if France is more like Tommy from the butterfly effect?

 

[Catsmate]

I had some thoughts along the lines of hilarious meme's for this threads war.

Would it be like this meme...
View attachment 775922

I mean, if Germany was trying to goad France into yet another disasters frontal assault, then the top image would be great to convey German superiority, and French importance, but the problem with that, is if you do it to many times, what if France is more like Tommy from the butterfly effect?

I think you mean impotence; is your auto-correct being funny too?
My first reaction to that pic is blue-shirt being kicked in the groin. Followed by several more. Based on something I witnessed once.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

I think you mean impotence; is your auto-correct being funny too?

I did indeed, well caught.
Spell check got me again, lol.

My first reaction to that pic is blue-shirt being kicked in the groin. Followed by several more. Based on something I witnessed once.

Yea, I thought of Germany trying all sorts of ways to keep the French making costly frontal assaults, but then thought, what if...

 

[Big Schwartz]

So let's get down to statistics. (1914) Pulled from first Google search results, could be more accurate

Population:
G. 67.8m
F: 39.7m

GNP in Millions (1913)
G: 49,760
F: 27,401

Standing Army and Reserves
G: 4.5m
F: ~4m

Iron Ore (millions of metric tons)
G: 28,608 (1913), 20,505 (1914)
F: 21,918 (1913), 11,252(1914)

Coal in millions of metric tons:
G: 277.3 (1913), 245 (1914)
F: 40.8 (1913), 29.8 (1914)


Quote 1

"But the Germans essentially won the war on the railways before the armies had had an opportunity to confront one another. With perfect organisation, the Prussians, led by Helmuth von Moltke, were able to amass 462,000 soldiers on the French frontier to face a French army of only 270,000. Although the French army was not required to leave France, and was only operational in order to defend the motherland, it managed to lose some 100,000 stragglers through poor planning and poor administration, and because their railway infrastructure did not begin to match the German railway infrastructure."

Quote 2
"The outbreak of the war shrank the industrial capacity and led to massive devastation and destruction. As early as August 1914, France was one of the most devastated countries. Following the invasion and occupation of northern and eastern France by German forces, France lost 14 percent of its industrial output. Before the war, this area produced 75 percent of the French coal production, 81 percent of the iron, 63 percent of the steel, 85 percent of the linen, 94 percent of the wool, and 75 percent of the sugar."

 

[yulzari1]

It would be an interesting reversal of the OTL experience. With a purely Franco-German war Germany is in a better position to last out a long war of attrition through a larger industry and population. Camped in Eastern France it can invite futile French attacks and withstand them. Germany’s only strategic weakness is at sea. She can cope with coastal French attacks but not ensure the safety of it’s own commercial shipping worldwide or even in the North Sea. However it has access to neutral shipping via Scandinavia and the Netherlands.

 

[Drizzt]

Germany has one big advantage regarding mutual commerce warfare on the High Seas: The Haber process. Once that one gets going it is no longer dependent on nitrate imports, whereas France is. Assuming both sides give about as good as they get, Germany can afford to loose shipping a lot more than France can.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

Without the RN blockade, what is Germanys foreign trade situation in these altered circumstances? I cannot see France being anywhere near as effective at cutting off German trade, what with the need to keep their warships outside of (Neutral) British waters, and I cannot see the MN attempting open ocean interceptions of UK/US ships in anything more effective than their German counterparts with respect to French trade on French and Neutral ships.

I'm sure that their will be surface raiders used on both sides, but that these measures will not be anywhere near as effective at cutting off the foreign trade like OTL's WWI blockade, so while each side is going to suffer losses, it will not be as bad.

I discount French warships raiding the North sea by coming thru the English channel, as that would force the Eastern channel, a vital shipping lane, to become a battleground in this war.

So where would the trade war be fought, by what ships, and based where? As I understand it, the existing German navy was built with extremely cramped crew quarters, because they were built to fight in the North sea against the RN, so long term missions are going to be hard on the German crews, until they can built new ships, with long ranges, and proper crew accommodations for extended voyages.

The more I think about this, the more I am realizing that this isn't just a minor question, with easy and simple answers.

The Germans have an army constrained not by their total population, but by the Prussian Elites desire to retain control of the officer corps, as I understand this. Upthread, the French population/Army were listed as

France, 39.7 million, with ~4 million in the Army, while
Germany, 67.8 million, with just 4.5 million under arms, when it should have been ~6.78 million men if the same ratio were to be applied (and other than Prussian Elites, I see no reason to suppose that Germany couldn't have a proportional sized army to that of France). In either case, both sides mobilized far more troops than they started the war with, IIRC.

What do you folks think? Would we see some interesting commerce raiding going on, perhaps also based within the colonies adjacent seas? For that matter, what kind of Ground combat will be taking place in the African colonies of the warring nations? Resupply from Germany is going to be much harder than that from France, but then again, with the Germans on the doorstep, are the French going to be sending more manpower to Africa, or trying to pull troops from Africa to hold the lines?

 

[Monk78]

Can Germany persuade Azores to be used as an outpost for its commerce raiders?

can France get more heavy artillery quickly ? Like within 6 wks ?

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

Can Germany persuade Azores to be used as an outpost for its commerce raiders?

Using the Azores, Canary, or Cape Verde islands means spreading the war, though.

can France get more heavy artillery quickly ? Like within 6 wks ?

I think not, but then again, when will both sides run into the stockpiles running out of what they already have on hand? As I understand it, nobody in WWI had built up a decent stockpile of artillery shells, and soon found themselves running short?

 

[Big Schwartz]

Without the RN blockade, what is Germanys foreign trade situation in these altered circumstances? I cannot see France being anywhere near as effective at cutting off German trade, what with the need to keep their warships outside of (Neutral) British waters, and I cannot see the MN attempting open ocean interceptions of UK/US ships in anything more effective than their German counterparts with respect to French trade on French and Neutral ships.

I wonder with Denmark being so closely tied to Germany and the Channel being a dangerous zone if Reykjavik's seaport which started development in 1913 would get far more German investment as a halfway stop for trade with America.

We might see a moderately more developed Iceland in this timeline.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

I wonder with Denmark being so closely tied to Germany and the Channel being a dangerous zone if Reykjavik's seaport which started development in 1913 would get far more German investment as a halfway stop for trade with America.

We might see a moderately more developed Iceland in this timeline.

If the Germans would be able to send their merchant ships across the Atlantic by using G-I-UK neutral waters, and be immune to French interference while in said waters, Denmark could make quite a bit for expediting such, I would think.

While in the S. Atlantic though, I would expect to see commerce raiding coming into it's own, and traffic running back and forth between N & S America and African colonies would probably be important to both sides, on the German side, buying anything and everything needed to supply their colonies, including and especially arms and ammunition purchased from the USA, and the French attempting to stop this trade, but not at the cost of dragging other nations into the war.

 

[NoMommsen]

... or even in the North Sea. ...

... why? ... how? ...should the MN install a close or wide blockade within the NorthSea? ... it's not that the shore of the NorthSea are bristling with french harbours to sustain such a blockade which - if at all - would then have to be conducted aaall thge way around the british isles given the HSF ample opportunity for aiming experience on the less capable (in quantity as well as quality at that point of time) french ships.

 

[Catspoke]

Without the RN blockade, what is Germanys foreign trade situation in these altered circumstances? I cannot see France being anywhere near as effective at cutting off German trade, what with the need to keep their warships outside of (Neutral) British waters, and I cannot see the MN attempting open ocean interceptions of UK/US ships in anything more effective than their German counterparts with respect to French trade on French and Neutral ships.

I'm sure that their will be surface raiders used on both sides, but that these measures will not be anywhere near as effective at cutting off the foreign trade like OTL's WWI blockade, so while each side is going to suffer losses, it will not be as bad.

I discount French warships raiding the North sea by coming thru the English channel, as that would force the Eastern channel, a vital shipping lane, to become a battleground in this war.

So where would the trade war be fought, by what ships, and based where? As I understand it, the existing German navy was built with extremely cramped crew quarters, because they were built to fight in the North sea against the RN, so long term missions are going to be hard on the German crews, until they can built new ships, with long ranges, and proper crew accommodations for extended voyages.

The more I think about this, the more I am realizing that this isn't just a minor question, with easy and simple answers.

The Germans have an army constrained not by their total population, but by the Prussian Elites desire to retain control of the officer corps, as I understand this. Upthread, the French population/Army were listed as

France, 39.7 million, with ~4 million in the Army, while
Germany, 67.8 million, with just 4.5 million under arms, when it should have been ~6.78 million men if the same ratio were to be applied (and other than Prussian Elites, I see no reason to suppose that Germany couldn't have a proportional sized army to that of France). In either case, both sides mobilized far more troops than they started the war with, IIRC.

What do you folks think? Would we see some interesting commerce raiding going on, perhaps also based within the colonies adjacent seas? For that matter, what kind of Ground combat will be taking place in the African colonies of the warring nations? Resupply from Germany is going to be much harder than that from France, but then again, with the Germans on the doorstep, are the French going to be sending more manpower to Africa, or trying to pull troops from Africa to hold the lines?

OTL the French blockaded Kamerun with a few cruisers, and the British secured Lomé, Togo with a cruiser very early. No other active borders.

I imagine in this TL, the Germans might send cruiser Karlsruhe over to secure the colonies, maybe Dresden, and there is no reason both can't hold out for a long time, even Togo.
(I speculated the Germans might send out Blucher with 200 Marines,10 MG and critical supplies for both colonies. (Blucher is very hard to match up against for the French but not so valuable it can't be lost. A couple independent sailing merchants for less critical supplies.

Doula Kamerun could be made into a defended port very easily.

German reservists from South America can much more easily migrate to these colonies with adjacent neutral British next door.

The Germans have naval superiority with the East Asia squadron in the Pacific, but I imagine would provide a distant defense of the rather weak colonies in the area, vs. extensive commerce raiding.

 

[Monk78]

OTL the French blockaded Kamerun with a few cruisers, and the British secured Lomé, Togo with a cruiser very early. No other active borders.

I imagine in this TL, the Germans might send cruiser Karlsruhe over to secure the colonies, maybe Dresden, and there is no reason both can't hold out for a long time, even Togo.
(I speculated the Germans might send out Blucher with 200 Marines,10 MG and critical supplies for both colonies. (Blucher is very hard to match up against for the French but not so valuable it can't be lost. A couple independent sailing merchants for less critical supplies.

Doula Kamerun could be made into a defended port very easily.

German reservists from South America can much more easily migrate to these colonies with adjacent neutral British next door.

The Germans have naval superiority with the East Asia squadron in the Pacific, but I imagine would provide a distant defense of the rather weak colonies in the area, vs. extensive commerce raiding.

Can Blucher carry more marines ?
Can the predreadnoughts also be used to ferry marines ?

 

[Catspoke]

Can Blucher carry more marines ?
Can the predreadnoughts also be used to ferry marines ?

Probably could carry more than 200, but is a long trip, machine guns and crews more handy than sheer numbers, natives can give the raw numbers, a few officers would be extra helpful.

I would worry about pre dreadnought ranges to get there, blucher is rangey and quick.

Goeben would load a company to reinforce Treibizond from Constantinople, so 200 might be about right.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

OTL the French blockaded Kamerun with a few cruisers, and the British secured Lomé, Togo with a cruiser very early. No other active borders.

I have to wonder what kind of a fight the Germans would put up over their colonies in TTL? They have the stronger navy, and no hostile RN keeping them pinned up in the North Sea. Would the French be willing to use their navy to support invasions, if the Germans are capable of sailing in defense?

I imagine in this TL, the Germans might send cruiser Karlsruhe over to secure the colonies, maybe Dresden, and there is no reason both can't hold out for a long time, even Togo. (I speculated the Germans might send out Blucher with 200 Marines,10 MG and critical supplies for both colonies. (Blucher is very hard to match up against for the French but not so valuable it can't be lost. A couple independent sailing merchants for less critical supplies.

SMS Karlsruhe looks to be an interesting ship, what with such a high speed, and SMS Blucher looks much more formidable although slower.

Doula Kamerun could be made into a defended port very easily.

I was looking at Kamerun as the potential basis for a South Atlantic base for commerce raiding, but don't know enough to say whether or not it could be used as such in this threads war, given time and distances, and the motivations of the two powers. I mean, I'd love to post about a major theater of this war being the ever escalating commerce raiding and light blockade activities ending up with one or more fleet actions being fought south of the equator, but how realistic can that be?

German reservists from South America can much more easily migrate to these colonies with adjacent neutral British next door.

I also feel that the Germans can hold their colonies better/longer in this ATL than historically, or perhaps even be taking French colonies.

The Germans have naval superiority with the East Asia squadron in the Pacific, but I imagine would provide a distant defense of the rather weak colonies in the area, vs. extensive commerce raiding.

I think that one ship assigned to the East Asia squadron had a good commerce raiding career, while it lasted anyway, but against just the French, perhaps they could evade hunter-killer groups longer?

My initial thoughts were that the Germans are going to need better ships, designed for long duration deployments, in order to have a sustained role in commerce raiding, due to the limited crew facilities aboard ship.

 

[Catsmate]

Can Germany persuade
The Azores
to be used as an outpost for its commerce raiders?

can France get more heavy artillery quickly ? Like within 6 wks ?

1. Unlikely. Portugal was effectively a British client state.
2. No.

 

[Monk78]

A lot of 77mm and 75mm will not be useful in static battles , can Germans and France mobilize older guns from 19th century? Or there is no ammo for them