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I got into this discussion on another forum, but what would a 2nd world war look like in a scenario where the CPs win in 1915?

The scenario would be that the Germans come in at a more oblique angle during Mons (as a result of the German 1st army not being forced to hew too much to the 2nd army), encircling and crushing the BEF, while the French 5th army then finds its flank uncovered and is badly mangled when the victorious German 1st army crashes into them. Effectively the BEF and French 5th army are pretty much gone and there is no battle of the Marne and the Germans just push the French back, encircling Verdun, leaving Paris undefended, causing the French government to flee to Bordeaux. Effectively weakening the French to the point they can pull some troops out the Germans turn east in late 1914, inflicting heavy defeats on Russians, as they use some units from the west and all 6 reserve corps that were not used ITTL for the Race to the Sea, giving them time to get fully trained first. In 1915 the Germans are still deep in France, Verdun falls, Paris is occupied, and the Russians are attacked and driven back causing the Entente to negotiate and exit the war.

Because Moltke doesn't have his break down in this scenario and the German government is less demanding due to the quick win, the Germans keep their demands in Europe relatively light, making the Vosges, Grand Couronne, and Briey-Longwy, letting Belgium go in exchange for the Congo (and French Congo), while in the East setting up Russian Poland as a kingdom under a Habsburg monarch. They also take Lithuania as an independent state for a Hohenzollern monarch. Germany keeps her colonies. Serbia is crushed and split between Bulgaria and an Habsburg vassal state. The Ottomans come in as per OTL and really get little for their troubles other than the two BBs they ordered from Great Britain and to keep the German ships gifted during 1914.

Things are pretty short and despite the humiliations France and Russia are not too badly affected by the peace deal. Clearly the Entente is not happy and wants a rematch.

How long does this take to happen? What sort of lessons are drawn from this war in which trenches don't become a defining feature? Who is going to start it and why? How does A-H develop, especially upon the death of Franz Josef in 1916-17 (may live slightly longer due to less disasters adding stress to his life)? How about the Ottomans?
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