My last few posts concerned a hypothetical Midway attack where the Japanese codes weren't broken and the garrison went unreinforced. Not an attack on Oahu. I think most everyone is in agreement that the Second Battle of Hawaii posited by OP is implausible and would've been chopped to pieces if attempted.
1) Midway could not realistically be taken by the landing force sent with the doctrine the IJN used. Against a Marine defence battalion, - 750 (?) or so without the reinforcements mentioned - 2000 Special Naval Infantry is not enough, even with cruiser softening up and dive bombers, not with them in rubber boats, no real opposed landing doctrine etc.
At best the landing force would be ground to hamburger taking the place, with a handful of survivors left after that. That force would be wrecked, and Japan did not have the spare troops in the Pacific, the US did or had them on the way. Attrition is a very nasty reality.
2) In the unlikely event they take Midway they will then feel honour bound to hold it. That means Guadalcanal north, with the Japanese being the ones hanging on by their fingernails against an enemy with a major naval base comparatively near by.
Running supplies to Midway through the submarines, air patrols, whatever surface ships etc would run down the Japanese merchant transport fleet to dangerous levels rapidly. Supplies coming in from Truk or Japan with the USN knowing they had to be coming, able to build air and naval bases on Hawiian islands closer to Midway - the chain runs in that direction after all - would have to be escorted, the escorts and transports would be burning fuel from a stockpile Japan was simply not refilling... A long drawn out battle of attrition against the USN and Army Air Corps, both of which were getting stronger by the day and could really use a nearby training ground like this to sharpen their edge a bit.
Result: Japan loses faster.
Please note that the day before Pearl Harbour
35% of the merchant ship tonnage that sustained the Japanese economy was Foreign Owned, mostly American. So they instantly lost that, minus a few ships captured in port here and there. Merchant ships were desperately needed, and trying to supply Midway would be a suicide run. No the destroyer transports used at Guadalcanal would not be adequate, not at the those distances and horrendous fuel consumption per ton delivered.
Oil from the NEI was not arriving in Japan fast enough to keep up with demand, the stockpile was running out, this would make that worse. Diverting the already inadequate tonnage available to a basically useless outpost instead of running supplies, raw materials etc to keep the economy going does Japan no favours and allied war effort a huge favour.