Second American Civil War - 1993

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Action Quebecois and MALL

The problem with MALL and Quebec and places like that is that they are beggers. Rural areas in the US and Quebec leach off the cities.
If MALL became independent the young people would all leave for the richer urban areas. In fact, if it wasn't for the huge immigrant population in the urban areas raising housing prices and lowering wages they already would have left, as happened in the twenties. The US has accepted more immigrants in my lifetime than live in the 15% (by population) of the US that is nonurban.
As our balance of payments problems force us to put more investment into primary and secondary production, the MALL will become richer and less restive/alienated from the rest of the US. It's hard to sulk when you've got it made.
I have thought about it and I just can't get a civil war started. Unless we have a nuke winter scenario and there is a civil war about food.
 
wkwillis, I don't understand exactly. What about my scenario is impossible? If they felt that their rights were being downtrodden, that the federal government no longer looked after their interests, I don't see why a rebellion like I have created couldn't occur...?
 
What's the motive?

Walter_Kaufmann said:
wkwillis, I don't understand exactly. What about my scenario is impossible? If they felt that their rights were being downtrodden, that the federal government no longer looked after their interests, I don't see why a rebellion like I have created couldn't occur...?

What's the motive for secession? Think about it. You or your parents are collecting a social security check. Then some loony wants to start a civil war over lumber regulations that mean that you can't cut down all the trees at once, but have to cut them down more slowly. If the US shrugs and lets them leave, who is going to pay your social security taxes?
The local kids are already broke because of the rural economic depression. They can look around and see that the trees are being cut faster and that instead of lasting forty years before they run out, they will be gone if five. So you kids immigrate to the US. But you can't, and you can see exactly when your check will go away, and it's as soon as the trees run out.
Restrictions on coal mining? The primary restriction on coal mining is local taxes. The primary restriction on coal gas methane is the salt water from the coal dewatering process (so the methane will desorb). If you pump out more water to get more gas you will render the water unfit for irrigation downstream, and the downstream people will tax the the gas pipelines to compensate the local farmers. Then you don't net any extra money.
Restrictions on overgrazing? Those restrictions only cover federal land. You can buy land cheaply enough if you want too, and graze as many cows on it as you want. Then you can't graze any cows on it until it recovers.
When Britain threw the Irish out, that's exactly what happened to elderly people in Ireland. They cut their social security checks. Belfast (at the time) was the economic heartland of Ireland and they chose to stay in Britain instead of subsidizing the Irish in the south.
The southern Irish could and did raise taxes on the large British estates in the south, but what good did that do? The farm sector was collapsing all over the world. You can't tax people that don't have any money. Well, okay, you can, but it doesn't do much good.
Local rebellions are when the government takes money away from you, instead of giving it to you. MALL doesn't qualify.
 
Initially, it's not about secession. It's about shrugging off some federal control. The motive is the loss of individual and states rights to the federal government. Too much perceived federal intervention in everyday life (economically and socially). The motivation is that the populace of the region feels that they're being economically and socially repressed by the federal government over a relatively long period of time (5 years) and that the federal government is stripping the populace and its elected representatives of their power and their rights guaranteed in the Constitution. Following a couple of battles with the federal government, and the perceived unwaranted attack on the God-fearing citizens of the Northwest by the corrupt government in Washington, yes, it will develop so that it will be about complete freedom from government interference (i.e. secession).

And, I don't understand why you keep talking about immigration...
 
US out of California

Walter_Kaufmann said:
Initially, it's not about secession. It's about shrugging off some federal control. The motive is the loss of individual and states rights to the federal government. Too much perceived federal intervention in everyday life (economically and socially). The motivation is that the populace of the region feels that they're being economically and socially repressed by the federal government over a relatively long period of time (5 years) and that the federal government is stripping the populace and its elected representatives of their power and their rights guaranteed in the Constitution. Following a couple of battles with the federal government, and the perceived unwaranted attack on the God-fearing citizens of the Northwest by the corrupt government in Washington, yes, it will develop so that it will be about complete freedom from government interference (i.e. secession).

And, I don't understand why you keep talking about immigration...

Immigration is the dominant reality in urban California, just like emigration is the dominant reality in MALL. It's the major factor in all economic, political, and cultural issues.
Again, how is the federal government net economically repressing MALL. I know how it's repressing metrocoastal areas, but what the hell is it doing to MALL? You need a motive for a revolution, a reason to get out of bed, pick up a gun, and shoot someone. Give me a reason!
How about they find a giant pool of oil, and there is an OPEC shut down, so oil goes to 200$ a barrel, and they tax it away from MALL? That would work. But it has to be a giant pool of oil. A 100 million barrels per year isn't nearly enough. Maybe a billion barrels per year? That would be about one sixth of US consumption.
 
wkwillis said:
Immigration is the dominant reality in urban California, just like emigration is the dominant reality in MALL. It's the major factor in all economic, political, and cultural issues.
Again, how is the federal government net economically repressing MALL. I know how it's repressing metrocoastal areas, but what the hell is it doing to MALL? You need a motive for a revolution, a reason to get out of bed, pick up a gun, and shoot someone. Give me a reason!
How about they find a giant pool of oil, and there is an OPEC shut down, so oil goes to 200$ a barrel, and they tax it away from MALL? That would work. But it has to be a giant pool of oil. A 100 million barrels per year isn't nearly enough. Maybe a billion barrels per year? That would be about one sixth of US consumption.

MALL is not the only one sympathetic to revolution or resistance, btw. They are merely the only ones acting. It is the focus of Federal government on their region and abuse of police powers that is the final tipping point. However, it is a combination of factors that cause it, all originating in the overall expansion of Federal Government to ridiculous levels, with the cost bein spread across the public as a whole. The problem, wkwillis, is that you are looking for a proletariate revolution over wealth. Taxes are part of it, but the fight is over the size and direct power of the Federal Government. In looking for that, you want a flamethrower to ignite a powder keg. Don't need it. If you read entire thread (and the secondary thread I posted) you would have gotten a good idea of the various causes. Hearing about the horrors of Ruby Ridge and the actions of a few far seeing individuals get the ball rolling in this ATL. Until then, wait for my timeline, which will come tomorrow (or technically later today). I think you will find your cause.
 
A revised and expanded version of the timeline is coming. I just have to sort through Dukakis's campaign platform.
 
Possible timeline

2000
Al Gore gets elected.
2001
1. We discover that the Fort Knox and the entire New York Fed Reserve has been looted of it's gold between 1992 and 2000, and the dollar collapses against the Euro, the Yen, etc. Lots of foreigners are upset about the Fed.
2. We have a balance of payments crisis where the price of tangible goods goes way up.
3. We build lots of cement plants, steel mills, coal mines, synfuel plants, aluminum refineries, mines, etc, mostly in the flyover.
4. Pay rises for unskilled and semiskilled people, as we can no longer import stuff without paying for it in hard currency.
5. We build lots of secondary production facilities like auto parts factories, wafer fabs, textile mills, etc, largely, but not entirely, in the flyover.
6. Residential and commercial buildings and especially unimproved land prices collapse in the metrocoastal areas, as many people, especially young and unskilled people, move to the flyover in search of better jobs at higher pay.
7. Metrocoastal areas have lower incomes from rent, and therefore pay less income taxes, and huge capital losses, deductible from income taxes.
2002
1. The federal tax returns come in. Instead of the metrocoastal areas subsidizing the flyover, it's now the flyover subsidizing the metrocoastal areas.
2. Some flyover states start talking about how the feds ought to not spend as much money, since they are now paying for more of the federal budget.
3. The metrocoastal areas out vote them in the house, but are outvoted in the senate.
4. The flyover states go on a tax strike where they no longer pay taxes to the federal government.
5. The army gets laid off due to lack of money.
6. The army pensions stop, too.
6. The flyover states start hiring the army on as national guards.
2003
1. The new congress and senate take office, charged with restoring tax revenues from the flyover.
2. Some idiot starts shooting.

This is more likely. We couldn't do this before 2000 because we hadn't spent all the overseas assets of Americans until then. In 1992, we had more assets overseas than foreigners had over here. No way we could have had a balance of payments problem then.
 
I already told you. The 2nd Civil War is about personal rights and governmental abuse of those rights. It is not about the economy, although the rebels would appreciate a tax cut here and there.
 
You realize the dollar is a fiat backed currency (i.e. it's value is solely by government decree)? We haven't been on the gold standard since 1971. Second, there is no explanation for raiding Fort Knox and your scenario completely bypasses the checks and balances put in place for just such an event. Those three reasons kill the entire scenario. The fourth reason is that this timeline is not about wealth or a proletariate class struggle. It is about the rights that generations of Americans have fought for. That is going to be the rallying point for the revolutionaries/patriots. It isn't about "some idiot shooting." If the scenario did happen, I would expect civil unrest, not outright revolution. And if the Feds don't have the funds to pay for a military, the States sure as heck aren't going to have money to pay for it either.

wkwillis said:
2000
Al Gore gets elected.
2001
1. We discover that the Fort Knox and the entire New York Fed Reserve has been looted of it's gold between 1992 and 2000, and the dollar collapses against the Euro, the Yen, etc. Lots of foreigners are upset about the Fed.
2. We have a balance of payments crisis where the price of tangible goods goes way up.
3. We build lots of cement plants, steel mills, coal mines, synfuel plants, aluminum refineries, mines, etc, mostly in the flyover.
4. Pay rises for unskilled and semiskilled people, as we can no longer import stuff without paying for it in hard currency.
5. We build lots of secondary production facilities like auto parts factories, wafer fabs, textile mills, etc, largely, but not entirely, in the flyover.
6. Residential and commercial buildings and especially unimproved land prices collapse in the metrocoastal areas, as many people, especially young and unskilled people, move to the flyover in search of better jobs at higher pay.
7. Metrocoastal areas have lower incomes from rent, and therefore pay less income taxes, and huge capital losses, deductible from income taxes.
2002
1. The federal tax returns come in. Instead of the metrocoastal areas subsidizing the flyover, it's now the flyover subsidizing the metrocoastal areas.
2. Some flyover states start talking about how the feds ought to not spend as much money, since they are now paying for more of the federal budget.
3. The metrocoastal areas out vote them in the house, but are outvoted in the senate.
4. The flyover states go on a tax strike where they no longer pay taxes to the federal government.
5. The army gets laid off due to lack of money.
6. The army pensions stop, too.
6. The flyover states start hiring the army on as national guards.
2003
1. The new congress and senate take office, charged with restoring tax revenues from the flyover.
2. Some idiot starts shooting.

This is more likely. We couldn't do this before 2000 because we hadn't spent all the overseas assets of Americans until then. In 1992, we had more assets overseas than foreigners had over here. No way we could have had a balance of payments problem then.
 
Though I disagree with much of WK's thesis, armed rebellions generally don't start in times of economic prosperity. Is there a recession around the time of the MALL uprising? I can't remember.

We can incorporate some of WK's economic theories into the scenario somehow. Perhaps, in addition to gun-grabbing, the US gov't gets really desperate for money (re: WK's comments on $$) and starts indulging in drug-war abuses...planting drugs on people's property so they can confiscate it and sell it, on a much larger scale than today.
 
OK, rights it is.

Bush and Quayle are assassinated by some loony just before the election. The Republicans pick a loony because they figure they need a sacrificial lamb against Perot and Clinton, but in a three way split he is elected...
Nah, the congress would stomp on him. The question is, how do we manage for loonytoons to take over the House, the Senate, and the Supreme Court? If all of them are blown up when some Saudi terrorists fly an airplane into the Capital on inauguration day, and then....
I'll think about it. Most people are reasonable. It's hard to get them to be really nasty without threatening them. Even the civil war was because the northerners wanted to free the southerners's slaves without cancelling the southerners's northern owned mortgages. How do we get half of America to violate the rights of the other half?
Maybe some kind of Children's Liberation Front? But it wouldn't be sectional!
Too many people move around. Most people on this board would react to better times for people in the South or the West by moving there, and some of us did. I moved to California, I didn't invade it. How can you fight a war when everyone keeps joining the enemy?
North vs. South because of a volcano eruption that made malnutrition a Northern problem? They'd just buy food from the South, not invade it!
Genetic? All the people with Thalassemia or Sickle Cell move to the South after a mutant malaria comes by that is more effective at spreading through American mosquitos? So these people get all the free houses abandoned by fleeing southerners and then don't want to pay taxes to the refugees in the north? Or grow them food? Too many of them would have genetically normal relatives in the north.
The Antarctic ice shelf slumps and in a week the Gulf goes up to Illinois, with more refugees in the East than the West, so the West wants to keep the refugees out to avoid starvation? Again, I have relatives in the East, and why would I hate them?
 
Sarcastic one, isn't he? On a side note, it should be continuing. Walter Kaufmann was working on a different scenario for a while. Remember everybody, this ain't my scenario, so I'm not in charge of getting it done. Walter just let me muck around with it a bit to give him some ideas.

wkwillis said:
Bush and Quayle are assassinated by some loony just before the election. The Republicans pick a loony because they figure they need a sacrificial lamb against Perot and Clinton, but in a three way split he is elected...
Nah, the congress would stomp on him. The question is, how do we manage for loonytoons to take over the House, the Senate, and the Supreme Court? If all of them are blown up when some Saudi terrorists fly an airplane into the Capital on inauguration day, and then....
I'll think about it. Most people are reasonable. It's hard to get them to be really nasty without threatening them. Even the civil war was because the northerners wanted to free the southerners's slaves without cancelling the southerners's northern owned mortgages. How do we get half of America to violate the rights of the other half?
Maybe some kind of Children's Liberation Front? But it wouldn't be sectional!
Too many people move around. Most people on this board would react to better times for people in the South or the West by moving there, and some of us did. I moved to California, I didn't invade it. How can you fight a war when everyone keeps joining the enemy?
North vs. South because of a volcano eruption that made malnutrition a Northern problem? They'd just buy food from the South, not invade it!
Genetic? All the people with Thalassemia or Sickle Cell move to the South after a mutant malaria comes by that is more effective at spreading through American mosquitos? So these people get all the free houses abandoned by fleeing southerners and then don't want to pay taxes to the refugees in the north? Or grow them food? Too many of them would have genetically normal relatives in the north.
The Antarctic ice shelf slumps and in a week the Gulf goes up to Illinois, with more refugees in the East than the West, so the West wants to keep the refugees out to avoid starvation? Again, I have relatives in the East, and why would I hate them?
 
Once again, the details of (1988 - 1992) remain to be worked out...

June, 1992…

A shoulder-launched missile sent the helicopter carrying President Michael S. Dukakis back to the grounds of the White House in a fiery ball. All aboard were killed, including the President and his wife. The assassin was never apprehended, despite the fact that DC police quickly cordoned off the downtown area. Vice President Lloyd Bentsen was sworn in just hours after the assassination.

Within two weeks of President Dukakis’s murder, President Bentsen appointed Chief Justice of the Supreme Court William Rehnquist chairman of a Commission to investigate Dukakis’s death. Bentsen wanted the Commission’s findings before the Democratic National Convention, which was to be held in early August in New York City.


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July, 1992…

The Rehnquist Commission, unsurprisingly, was unable to determine who committed the murder of the President, or even whether it was a single person or a group. When pressed by the new President for results, however, the Commission fingered several militia groups of the Northwest suspected of violating weapons laws. The Commission suggested that a Federal Task Force be sent into Idaho to conduct further investigations.


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August, 1992…

The Federal Task Force, composed mainly of FBI and ATF Agents, descended upon Idaho. They soon found that the area was extremely hostile to the federal government and most of the citizens were well armed. Too well armed, in fact. Many possessed weapons which violate the Gun Control Acts of the past four years. The Task Force found that the state governments of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming had allocated almost nothing to the enforcement of federal gun laws. The Task Force soon received permission from President Bentsen to enforce those gun laws, since the local law enforcement seemed unwilling to do so. In Idaho, the head of the Task Force began preparing for a series of searches and seizures, even before he’d obtained the appropriate warrants.

Meanwhile, the federal siege of Ruby Ridge began with the death of Sammy Weaver and his dog. The federal forces encircled the Weaver family compound, and began what was to become a five day siege. The Governor of Idaho, Ellison Rhodes, called up A Company, 2/116 Armored Cavalry Regiment as a show of support for the federal agents. The commander of the Company, however, was secretly under strict orders to not intervene, no matter what occurred. Upon arriving at Ruby Ridge, the commander set up camp less than half a mile away from the federal lines.

In western Montana, a Northwest Defense Front unit heard of what was going on at Ruby Ridge. Less than three hours later, twelve men, heavily armed with machine guns, assault rifles, and sniper rifles, were on their way to the isolated location in northern Idaho. In the early morning hours of the fifth day, the twelve Defense Front “Patriots†broke the siege of Ruby Ridge long enough to rescue Randall Weaver, Kevin Harris, and two of Weaver’s children. Federal forces took heavy losses, with almost twenty-five men killed. The FBI, however, managed to capture four of the “Patriots†driving away from the location of Ruby Ridge. The Idaho National Guardsmen, as per orders, did not react.

In late August, the Task Force received nearly one hundred warrants for suspected militia leaders from the Federal District Court in San Francisco. Governor Rhodes announced that these warrants were illegal: the Federal Task Force had gone around the local court system when the local judges refused to issue warrants. The U.S. Justice Department announced that they planned on requesting a change in venue for the “Idaho Four.†Governor Rhodes announced that he will fight tooth and nail against the change in venue, stating that the four men would not be able to receive a fair trial in San Francisco. They also announced their plans to prosecute the Captain in command of A Company for negligence during the Ruby Ridge siege.


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September, 1992…

A four-week process of seizing illegal weapons from militia leaders began. The Task Force soon found several huge weapons caches of assault rifles and machine guns. The change in venue for the Idaho Four was granted. Governor Rhodes was livid. With complaints coming in from citizens concerned over the Federal seizures of weapons and now the movement of four Idaho citizens to a court where they would not have a jury of their peers, Rhodes and his new Attorney General, James Roberts, decided that it had become time to act. Like the Idaho Four, the National Guardsman in charge of A Company in August was to go to trial – in California. This was the final straw for Governor Rhodes.


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October, 1992…

The Federal Task Force, while searching a ranch, was surrounded and ordered to halt by Idaho State Police. The nearly sixty agents of the Task Force were escorted to the Federal Court in Boise, where they were to be detained indefinitely. With the round up of federal agents in Idaho, President Bentsen ordered Governor Rhodes arrested. FBI Agents started massing in Salt Lake City for the drive to Boise.


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November, 1992…

Elections in Oregon and Washington saw two members of the Constitutional Republican Party elected Governor. Since the seizure of weapons in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, public support for the three states in Oregon and Washington had skyrocketed, even in the previously liberal western halves of the states. Both states pledged to back the three “besieged†states. Meanwhile, Lloyd Bentsen won reelection over the Republican candidate simply because the nation did not wish to have three different Presidents in six months.

After two weeks of massing, the federal convoy left Salt Lake City for Boise. Idaho State Police spotted the convoy of federal vehicles on Interstate 84, just east of Malta, Idaho. They followed the convoy but did not pull it over. Governor Rhodes gave orders to ignore the convoy. The State Policemen, puzzled by the Governor’s orders, were forced to drop back and allowed the convoy to proceed, uninhibited by Idaho law enforcement.

At the urging of Attorney General Roberts, Governor Rhodes left the Governor’s Mansion in Boise, heading to the National Guard Base at Gowen Field on the outskirts of town. Arriving at the National Guard Base, Rhodes issued the appropriate orders to initiate a call up of National Guardsmen and State Police around Idaho and began making phone calls to his fellow Governors in Oregon, Montana, Washington, and Wyoming.

The Governors of the four states, woken by Rhodes’s call, also initiated a call up of all National Guardsmen and an activation of all State Police. The convoy of federal agents arrived in Boise and entered the Governor’s Mansion, intent on arresting Rhodes. Little did they know, however, that Rhodes had already evacuated. The Governor’s Mansion was then surrounded by Idaho State Police, who quickly rounded up any and all federal agents in the vicinity.

All federal agents were ordered to leave the states of Idaho, Oregon, Montana, Washington, and Wyoming, citing their unlawful searches, seizures, and arrests, as well as their infringement on individual and states’ rights. The call-up of the National Guardsmen was first broadcast on television and over the radio. The preliminary expulsions of the most troublesome federal agents were practically over. Nearly half of the National Guard troops were reporting as ordered. President Bentsen called for calm and declared a state of emergency existing in the Northwest. Other than that, however, Bentsen fails to make any other decisions, just after his reelection.

Still no word came out of the White House. Meanwhile, the National Guards of the five states were all in place and organizing their forces. The Governors of the five states met in Spokane, Washington. The five Governors soon released a statement, passed by emergency bodies of their five legislatures, creating the Coalition of Northwestern States (CNS). They repeatedly reminded the public that it was not an independent nation, but rather an emergency council, designed to efficiently run the day-to-day affairs of the Northwest during this time of crisis.

The National Guards of each individual state were disbanded by the state legislatures. They were then merged together to form the Unified Coalition Regional Guard (UCRG), a single military body composed of the five former bodies. The emergency sessions of the five individual legislatures make the UCRG immune to any federalization orders. The five Governors announced that Ellison Rhodes was the provisional Governor-General of the CNS, and that he would make his decisions from Spokane, while the other four Governors would return to their home states.

President Bentsen finally reacted by calling the CNS an illegal body, in clear violation of the Constitution. He, feebly, attempted to federalize the UCRG. The federalization order was rejected by General Douglas Latham, Adjutant General of the UCRG. The process of integration was, thus far, barely noticed as the units remained in place. The expulsions of federal agents finally came to an end.

National Guardsmen and State Police surrounded and stormed military bases across the CNS, taking the sleeping Regular soldiers by surprise. Most importantly, all the equipment stored across the five states by the army, including the massive stockpiles at Fort Lewis, the Naval stockpiles on Puget Sound, and the Air Force stockpiles at AF Bases across the five states, were seized. By mid-morning, November 21, with less than one-hundred dead on either side, all federal power within the CNS has ceased to be.

The first bus, truck, and trainloads of captured federal soldiers crossed the borders of the CNS into California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and the Plains states. By the end of the day, almost 50,000 US airmen, seamen, and soldiers were across the border and into friendly territory once again. President Bentsen had had enough, especially when he heard reports of soldiers of the UCRG sealing all the access points into the heart of the rebellion. He ordered a brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division to retake Spokane, thus hoping to capture Governor-General Rhodes and end the rebellion once and for all.


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December, 1992…

On December 4, the 1st Brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division landed in the outskirts of Spokane, Washington, around the International Airport. The US government, however, severely underestimated the UCRG. They met with the men of the 81st Infantry Brigade, which was dug in around Spokane. Although told to hold their fire until fired upon, the federal soldiers began firing. From their entrenched positions, the UCRG inflicted heavy casualties upon the paratroopers. A counterattack later broke the back of the Airborne Brigade, which surrendered on December 6.

The next day, at a Coalition Security meeting held at Fairchild AFB, outside of Spokane, the Coalition ceremonially renamed its military arm the United Coalition Armed Forces (UCAF). Rhodes ordered the UCAF doubled, to contain six Infantry Brigades, and four Armored Cavalry Brigades. Within the day, recruiting offices were opened across the Northwest and young men poured in. At a televised conference, Governor-General Rhodes outlined his argument against the federal government and accused President Bentsen of war-mongering. He suggested that the President be impeached. Unfortunately, while the speech played well in the West, it did not play as well in the East.

Following the speech, President Bentsen ordered a bombing raid conducted on Fairchild AFB to eliminate Rhodes and his staff. Unfortunately, one of the bombers missed its target and the bomb landed on a nearby elementary school, killing nearly 400 children and enraging much of the Northwest, especially when Bentsen attempted to place blame on the CNS itself.

Two days later, with all their weapons and gear confiscated, the United States populace is greeted by pictures of beleaguered paratroopers being led across the border into California. The United Coalition Armed Forces, had proved themselves in combat, and had bought time for the CNS, causing the President to rethink his position on the rebellion. A Christmas truce was negotiated later in the week, effective from December 20, to January 2.
 
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Yeah, perhaps. But then again, I could simply screw with the numbers and add the 116th Armored Brigade on top of the 81st Armored Brigade. That would give the CNS two armored brigades against a single brigade of airborne light infantry, plus the element of suprise, plus greater intelligence, plus a natural defensive advantage...
 
Pretty good start, I betcha you cant let this war stretch out untill 1995. If you could i would be very suprised
 
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