Sebastian of Portugal returns

King Sebastian I of Portugal died in the battle of Alcácer Quibir in 1578, his death marked the end of an era, his sucessor Henry I died without heirs, after this events Philip II of Spain became king of Portugal and the Iberian Union started.

In Portugal, the Iberian Union is remembered as the start of the fall of the Portuguese Empire and during the union there was a messianic belief consisting in that Sebastian survived the battle not captured by the Moroccan and he would end the Iberian Union and restore Portugal's independence.

This belief is called Sebastianism, after a while became very mythological going ASB, but what if Sebastianism is correct?

Can Sebastian restore portuguese independence?
If he wins against the spanish what are the consequences?

The POD is after the establishment of the Iberian Union.
 
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King Sebastian I of Portugal died in the battle of Alcácer Quibir in 1578, his death marked the end of an era, his sucessor Henry I died without heirs, after this events Philip II of Spain became king of Portugal and the Iberian Union started.
In Portugal, the Iberian Union is remembered as the start of the fall of the Portuguese Empire and during the union there was a messianic belief consisting in that Sebastian survived the battle and he would end the Iberian Union and restore Portugal's independence.
This belief is called Sebastianism, after a while became very mythological going ASB, but what if Sebastianism is correct?
Can Sebastian restore portuguese independence?
If he wins against the spanish what are the consequences?

So the battle is still lost, but Sebastian is kept prisoner, but later escapes or is released, and he returns to Portugal?

It either means Sebastian rallies the Portuguese nobles to fight Spain and reverse the Union (and either win or lose), or King Philip recognizes Portugal belonging to Sebastian and ends the Union voluntarily. If he does so, then Spain likely got something out of it - trade agreements, naval bases, or something else.

Portugal still existed as its own country with its own institutions during the Union, it was simply that Philip was king.

I think it depends on long its been since Sebastian disappeared, and how easily identifiable he is as the real king as opposed to a "false Sebastian".

If we assume Sebastian restores Portuguese independence regardless, it likely means Spain's enemies better respect Portugal's empire which means Portugal is in a slightly better financial and imperial position than OTL.

However, I don't think it impacts things much on a long term basis. Portugal did win its independence only 60 years after the personal union, and its political and economic institutions - and thus destiny - will remain the same.
 
So the battle is still lost, but Sebastian is kept prisoner, but later escapes or is released, and he returns to Portugal?

It either means Sebastian rallies the Portuguese nobles to fight Spain and reverse the Union (and either win or lose), or King Philip recognizes Portugal belonging to Sebastian and ends the Union voluntarily. If he does so, then Spain likely got something out of it - trade agreements, naval bases, or something else.

Portugal still existed as its own country with its own institutions during the Union, it was simply that Philip was king.

I think it depends on long its been since Sebastian disappeared, and how easily identifiable he is as the real king as opposed to a "false Sebastian".

If we assume Sebastian restores Portuguese independence regardless, it likely means Spain's enemies better respect Portugal's empire which means Portugal is in a slightly better financial and imperial position than OTL.

However, I don't think it impacts things much on a long term basis. Portugal did win its independence only 60 years after the personal union, and its political and economic institutions - and thus destiny - will remain the same.

Actually Sebastianism believes that the king was lost or "sleeping"( there are brazilian myths that believe he is still sleeping or he went to Brazil and is lost in the northeast of the country).

It's interesting to say that during the Iberian Union, like you mentioned about "false Sebastian", there really were some of them and they tried to restore portuguese "independence"

I agree in the fact that it wouldn't change so much of the already declining Portuguese Empire, but the butterflies of no Portuguese Restoration War in the end of the Eighty Years War could help the Spanish in the long run.
 
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King Sebastian I of Portugal died in the battle of Alcácer Quibir in 1578, his death marked the end of an era, his sucessor Henry I died without heirs, after this events Philip II of Spain became king of Portugal and the Iberian Union started.
In Portugal, the Iberian Union is remembered as the start of the fall of the Portuguese Empire and during the union there was a messianic belief consisting in that Sebastian survived the battle and he would end the Iberian Union and restore Portugal's independence.
This belief is called Sebastianism, after a while became very mythological going ASB, but what if Sebastianism is correct?
Can Sebastian restore portuguese independence?
If he wins against the spanish what are the consequences?

It depends on how Sebastian comes back. If the king is made a prisoner, Ahmad al-Mansur would surely make sure that is alive but in his power, in order to collect ransoms. So the succession crisis would not happen.

However, are you suggesting that Sebastian somehow disappears and then goes back to Portugal? And when would it happen? A return in 1579 would go very differently than, for example, in 1589 or 1599.
 
It depends on how Sebastian comes back. If the king is made a prisoner, Ahmad al-Mansur would surely make sure that is alive but in his power, in order to collect ransoms. So the succession crisis would not happen.

However, are you suggesting that Sebastian somehow disappears and then goes back to Portugal? And when would it happen? A return in 1579 would go very differently than, for example, in 1589 or 1599.

That's exactly what this messianic belief is about, he somehow disappeared and then he would go back to Portugal, the legend started during the Iberian Union so it would be after the ascension of Philip II as king of Portugal.

I think I will edit it to make it more clear in that aspect.
 
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