Season of our Fears

The elephant in the corner here is the quation of nitrates. Before the invention of the Haber process Germany can only sustain industrial warfare for six months whilst blockaded before they run out, and then they loose in very short order. Due to logistical limitations that armies in this era operate under it is impossible for the Germans to advance fast enough to knock the French out in that period. I can't really work out how the Germans managed to reach and besiege Paris in only three months given their limitations.

Essentially as soon as the French held out for six months they should have won almost by default.
 
The elephant in the corner here is the quation of nitrates. Before the invention of the Haber process Germany can only sustain industrial warfare for six months whilst blockaded before they run out, and then they loose in very short order. Due to logistical limitations that armies in this era operate under it is impossible for the Germans to advance fast enough to knock the French out in that period. I can't really work out how the Germans managed to reach and besiege Paris in only three months given their limitations.

Essentially as soon as the French held out for six months they should have won almost by default.

I'm sorry but I don't hold to that. Why can't they ship them through neutrals ? What was the German plan to deal with this - I mean, presumably, the German plan wasn't to invent a way out, but to get them in.

Three months seems long enough to get to Paris, and its quite odd saying of one of the largest and best armies of the world that its "limitations" make this seem impossible

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I'm sorry but I don't hold to that. Why can't they ship them through neutrals ?

The UK (or British commercial interests) basically controlled the nitrate "mines", and the British interpreation of what a legitimate blockade is does the rest.

What was the German plan to deal with this - I mean, presumably, the German plan wasn't to invent a way out, but to get them in.
As far as I can tell, the plan was to win the war within six months. Also, no one really realised how fast stocks of shells and nitrates would be depleted. There is substantial documentary evidence for this, on both sides. IOTL, the only reason the Germans were able to stay active in the war, even with the Haber process coming on-line, was the very lucky capture of the Antwerpen nitrates, which allowed them to last through the second six months of the war. Note that in 1911 the Germans will be worse off, as all sides were accumulating reserves in the run up to war.

Three months seems long enough to get to Paris, and its quite odd saying of one of the largest and best armies of the world that its "limitations" make this seem impossible.
I wasn't saying that the German Army had unique limitations, just that all armies at this point were bound by what could be accomplished using horses and where the railways were. Essentially all armies were cursed to outrun their supply chains when they got too far from their railheads, and the immense logistical load required to fight industrial war meant that when that happened you would be defeated or stopped.
 
The elephant in the corner here is the quation of nitrates. Before the invention of the Haber process Germany can only sustain industrial warfare for six months whilst blockaded before they run out, and then they loose in very short order. Due to logistical limitations that armies in this era operate under it is impossible for the Germans to advance fast enough to knock the French out in that period. I can't really work out how the Germans managed to reach and besiege Paris in only three months given their limitations.

Essentially as soon as the French held out for six months they should have won almost by default.

Besides in the TL the Germans arn't even under blockade.
 
Why not? When the British are at war with them why wouldn't they impose a blockade?

The comments I made about the naval war assume a close blockade (British plan pre-Agadir) that the action in the Bight results from, and then the more distant blockade (that the action at Scapa Flow is a challenge to)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Checkmate113 said:
Fifth. The Elections are kind of weird, I don't know what I really did with the PRogressive party, I suppose it was just butterflies.

Actually, now that I recall properly, TR tried to get the 1912 Republican nomination, and ought to have succeeded but although he won the numbers game, he was stitched up by the party bigwigs who denied him his victory. Only after this did he go off and create the Progressive platform. So, if you want TR to run against Wilson, you just need to have the Republicans have good reason to rally round the candidate with the popular majority - ie TR. Since there is a whopping great war on, this might just be reason enough :)

Alternatively, I guess the war could give TR sufficient boost to make the Progressives eclipse the Reps, and be the real challenge to Wilson, even more so than in OTL. Seems to fit OK in the end, actually. Not sure what I was unhappy about really. Curious...

Assuming a few retro-corrections to Parts 1 and 2, I'll have a look at Part 3. The general scope of everything you said can be kept, even the First Balkan War not reigniting a general conflict in the wake of a war. The peace treaty with France makes reasonable sense too :) Its stipulations are definitely good ones, and perhaps Germany doesn't press for more because of international pressure. They also don't need to specify France destroying the border forts, because they're in possession of them themselves, and can do it themselves

Checkmate113 said:
January-July, 1914
-Germany and Britain slowly begin to reestablish trade. Despite the naval war earlier in the decade the Germans desperately want to be on Britain’s good side to avoid another war. The British also want another trading ally because of France’s decimation in the second Franco-German war. The British abandoned the Americans as serious allies due to the growing distrust between the Japanese and the Americans.
-The already deteriorating situation in the Balkans explodes into open conflict. When Franz Ferdinand is assassinated by the Black Hand group in Serbia Austria declares war on Serbia. Russia subsiquantly declares war on Austria, and so the third Balkan War begins.
-The Germans, who were being counted on by the Austrians to support them against Russia, do not in fact support the Austrians because they do not want to get involved in another war. This allows the Russians to concentrate their forces against the Austrians, despite the numerical advantage trench warfare quickly sets in.
-Riots in Lille and Amiens calling for German troops to leave are put down with almost brutal force.

Whilst this is all a bit too much convergence one supposes its not impossible for Franz Ferdinand to be assassinated etc. In fact, given that in your world Austria did not support Germany, and that the war remained localised to France versus Germany, then Serbia may well reckon that Germany won't support Austria, and that Serbia, fresh from its twin victories in the Balkan Wars, can hope to defeat Austria herself, or with Russian support force Vienna to terms

I COULD see the Germans wary of getting involved, and thus refusing the "blank cheque" of OTL, but I would still think it would be on the basis that Russia did not get involved. BECAUSE if Russia does get involved, then Germany in this scenario is NOT going to face a two-front war, having dealt with France, so won't have any reason to FEAR fighting Russia. Its not as if Imperial Germany is the kind of state to back down

Now, you COULD perhaps work in political problems, social unrest etc. Sure, Germany beat France but after the war, the SPD will be pushing for more control and influence, less chance for the Kaiser and his clique to recklessly push the nation into war again. There have probably been elections, and the SPD has probably done well. In addition, beating France, coming to terms with Britain, and breaking the Franco-Russian alliance have all been achieved.

Faced with no German support, I could certainly see the Austrians HAVING to be more defensive in outlook on the border with Russia. Whether anyone could convicne Conrad of this is another matter ! But the guy is not a complete moron, and will have seen how the war was fought between Germany and France, how hopes of quick knock-out blows proved false, and how it would become a stalemate.

I have no idea what you mean about the French rioting in Amiens and Lille. The Germans HAVE left in accordance with the peace treaty you had them sign with France a year earlier.

July, 1914-February, 1915
-The Serbians win a decisive victory over the Austrians near the border. The Russian front seems to be shaping up to be an endless stalemate.
-The first true armored vehicles are deployed by the Austrians. Taking several tractors, putting armored plating on them and putting a machine gun on top makes a great weapon to break through trenches. Especially because they don’t get mired down in the mud like armored cars.
-Demonstration in Ulster become increasingly violent, the British send troops which only makes things worse. Demonstrators kill several British soldiers prompting an exchange of fire and prompting a war in Ireland.
-Russian defeat in Galacia, the Austrians hold their ground wanting to whittle down the Russian army into surrender or mutiny.
Armored Vehicles
Although armored cars had been in use since the Franco-German war they had not been used strategically or usefully. This was mostly due to the nature of early twentieth century combat. Cars would often get mired down in mud and simply stay there until they were destroyed or dug out. This changed when the Austrians equipped an old tractor with tracks and mounted armor and a machine gun on it. The new machines would not get stuck in the mud and generally would be used quite effectively.

I quite like this. The Ireland situation makes perfect sense, given the rising tensions of OTL and what you have basically is a Loyalist rebellion leading to civil war. This is the LOYALISTS against the government, since the government wants to give home-rule to the Irish nationalists.

February-December, 1915
-The German aircraft manufacturer Fokker develops the interrupter gear. This allows aircraft to fight with machine guns in the sky facing straight forward. It is sold to the Austrians for a hefty price.
-Germans seem to be going back on their word that they would not interfere with the 3rd Balkan war. The Germans start mobilizing troops on the border in late October.
-Battles on the Austrian front begin swaying towards the Austrians, mostly due to the new armored vehicles.
-The first signs of unrest begin showing up in Russia. Sick of seemingly endless war and scared to death of German intervention protesters take to the streets in Petrograd.

This really doesn't seem likely.
-1- Having reneged on the alliance, why is Germany now entering a war it does not need to or want ?
-2- Russian forces are not going to be on the brink of collapse in any way whatsoever, fighting Austria alone. Sure, there are losses, but Russia has a serious bone to pick with Austria *(one called annexation of Bosnia-Hercegovina) and Russia's reserves are immense. OTL it took 3 years to break them, even the disasters of 1915 did not do it, and here a bloody stalemate is no comparison at all to the loss of Poland and fall of Warsaw in that campaign of OTL.
-3- Russia would almost certainly NOT have renamed Saint Petersburg, since its never fought Germany and thus waves of anti-German feeling never rose up.
-4- Armoured vehicles in Galicia ? I'm not sure whether its the right place to make the difference. The plains of Hungary might be, but that would require a Russian breakthrough, or steady attrition. I suppose there ARE flat areas in Galicia where they can make local tactical victories possible, but not theatre-wide.

However, in a sense you don't NEED all this internal unrest ! If you were to tweak a few things - have the Austrians lose Galicia but stop the Russians at the edge, then you've given Germany cause for concern, and provided a place for the armoured vehicles to play. In addition, Russia is going to be establishing some form of government for Galicia, which of course is Polish in ethnicity. This might give the Germans some cause for concern, tho I'm not really sure how since Russia can't set up a puppet Poland unless it restores at least autonomy to Congress Poland

But if Russia DOES give Germany some cause for concern, then tensions could rise, and the Tsar could well begin to get very anxious about potential German involvement. After all, he has no allies to speak of, and facing BOTH Germany and Austria is unlikely to fare very well ! The potential imminence of this might brnig unrest where the actual fighting and war against Austria hasn't.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Okay, I like your thing about Russia pushing into Hungary but the whole Polish state thing doesn't really work. especially because in the next post I have Germany setting up a Polish state in Russian Poland so it wouldn't make much sense for the Russians to set up a Polish state as well, maybe a North Poland and South Poland but I doubt that.

And about renaming St. Petersburg. The Russians renamed it about two months before WW1 in OTL.
 
HA. It is here! Finally.
January-December, 1917
-More fighting in Ireland, protesters are brutally attacked even when unarmed. The brutality of the fighting in Ireland raises world awareness for the Irish cause.
-The Germans win battle after battle against the Russians, Russian morale drops considerably and in late February, a riot in Petrograd turns deadly when armed protesters storm the Imperial Palace and ransack it. The Czar begins the return journey to Petrograd.
-Huge gains are made in Poland by the Germans, the Germans mark their intent to create a Polish state.
-The Austrians begin advancing by leaps and bounds into the Ukraine, a temporary cease-fire is negotiated with both Czarist and Socialist forces as Russia collapses into a bloody civil war. The Germans set up the independent state of Poland, as well as the United Baltic Duchy encompassing Estonia and Latvia.
-The British threaten the Germans not to claim any territory because it would violate the Treaty of Amsterdam.
-Russian Civil war continues with neither side really gaining an advantage, the White Russians take Minsk after a brutal showdown with the Reds outside of the city..
-Americans in Mexico continue to progress further, despite the revolutionary Pancho Villa being found and killed US troops do not leave Mexico.

January-December, 1918
-On January fifth an official peace treaty is signed with the White Russians and the RSFSR stating that Austria and Germany will not support either side nor will they continue to fight on any front. As part of the deal the Austrians are allowed to annex Serbia. It also recognizes the states of Poland and the United Baltic Duchy.
-Tensions rise in the US and Japan once again when a rebellion in Formosa is horribly repressed by Japanese soldiers. Japan firmly ignores American protests at the inhumane treatment of the Taiwanese.
-Russian Civil war continues, still a stalemate for the most part, the Reds are unable to drive the Whites out of Minsk.
-British begin making plans to intervene on the side of the Whites in the Russian civil war.
 
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