Se Deus quiser, há-de brilhar! - Uma História do Império Português (Updated 03/18)

With an independent Navarra would that not rule out the Mendoza family? They originated from that area. I could see Juana I marrying someone from Pacheco family for their wealth and power since the Castilian royal treasury not that good even with Portuguese gold from guinea per treaty.
No, the Mendozas had origin in the border zone between Castile and Navarre but they already very powerful Castilian nobles well before the civil war... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Íñigo_López_de_Mendoza,_1st_Marquess_of_Santillana....
 
A lot of feedback and interesting discussion here. This is one thing I like most about writing my first timeline, when everyone gives me a lot of feedback and interesting suggestions to determine how the timeline goes. Here's what I'm thinking after the serious discussion between @Lusitania and @isabella, here's a compromise I made:
  • Afonso V gets the Castillan throne at the end of the war as Alfonso XII jure uxoris alongside Juana I (La Beltraneja), but only rules for for a few months to a year since she gets very sick from a flu and dies shortly after the 1477 Treaty of Mérida (per isabella's suggestion)
  • Someone from the Mendoza and Pacheco Families is chosen to become King of Castile after La Beltraneja's death and marries Joanna, Princess of Portugal. Portugal is given the far western parts of Andalusia (Niebla + Huelva) as compensation per @Nasei's suggestion, although this might be an usurpation and Isabel of Castile is still the next heir since Afonso V and La Beltraneja didn't make any children in this case.
  • Enrique, Duke of Segorbe will succeed John II of Aragon once he dies in 1479.
 
A lot of feedback and interesting discussion here. This is one thing I like most about writing my first timeline, when everyone gives me a lot of feedback and interesting suggestions to determine how the timeline goes. Here's what I'm thinking after the serious discussion between @Lusitania and @isabella, here's a compromise I made:
  • Afonso V gets the Castillan throne at the end of the war as Alfonso XII jure uxoris alongside Juana I (La Beltraneja), but only rules for for a few months to a year since she gets very sick from a flu and dies shortly after the 1477 Treaty of Mérida (per isabella's suggestion)
  • Someone from the Mendoza and Pacheco Families is chosen to become King of Castile after La Beltraneja's death and marries Joanna, Princess of Portugal. Portugal is given the far western parts of Andalusia (Niebla + Huelva) as compensation per @Nasei's suggestion, although this might be an usurpation and Isabel of Castile is still the next heir since Afonso V and La Beltraneja didn't make any children in this case.
  • Enrique, Duke of Segorbe will succeed John II of Aragon once he dies in 1479.
Wait, if Joanna die childless then Isabella of Castile will be again Queen of Castile after her. I already posted the succession order for both Castile and Portugal here. The only way for making your second point viable is killing off early Alfonso V and having Juana I of Castile remarrying to a Castilian noble (as Isabella of Castile will not do it)
 

Lusitania

Donor
Wait, if Joanna die childless then Isabella of Castile will be again Queen of Castile after her. I already posted the succession order for both Castile and Portugal here. The only way for making your second point viable is killing off early Alfonso V and having Juana I of Castile remarrying to a Castilian noble (as Isabella of Castile will not do it)
Therefore I think best bet is Juana have 1 or 2 kids by Afonso and leave Lisbon when Afonso dies and prince John becomes king. King John can support Juana claim and receive either money or territory for the expenses of Portuguese troops provide Juana putting down rebels in first years of Juana reign. Therefore this keeps Isabella and Aragon from Castile throne.
 
Therefore I think best bet is Juana have 1 or 2 kids by Afonso and leave Lisbon when Afonso dies and prince John becomes king. King John can support Juana claim and receive either money or territory for the expenses of Portuguese troops provide Juana putting down rebels in first years of Juana reign. Therefore this keeps Isabella and Aragon from Castile throne.
Exactly. For a dominant Portugal in an Iberia with four/five independent states (Portugal, Castile, Aragon, Navarre and Granada) you need ATL Juana I of Castile (the OTL Beltraneja) having kids either by Alfonso V or by a second husband
 
Wait, if Joanna die childless then Isabella of Castile will be again Queen of Castile after her. I already posted the succession order for both Castile and Portugal here. The only way for making your second point viable is killing off early Alfonso V and having Juana I of Castile remarrying to a Castilian noble (as Isabella of Castile will not do it)

Exactly. For a dominant Portugal in an Iberia with four/five independent states (Portugal, Castile, Aragon, Navarre and Granada) you need ATL Juana I of Castile (the OTL Beltraneja) having kids either by Alfonso V or by a second husband

Well, looks like I'm going to have to change up Chapter 2 a bit with a rump Avis Castile in order for Portugal to become dominant as you mentioned. Afonso and La Beltraneja will have a son (I'll call him Infante Enrique) to succeed La Beltraneja as the ruler of Castile as Enrique V once she dies. I'll also amend this with João II supporting La Beltraneja and her heir's claim and receiving Huelva + Niebla at the expense of Portuguese support in order to put down the rebels. I think this is a better compromise than my first proposal (post #62).
 
Well, looks like I'm going to have to change up Chapter 2 a bit with a rump Avis Castile in order for Portugal to become dominant as you mentioned. Afonso and La Beltraneja will have a son (I'll call him Infante Enrique) to succeed La Beltraneja as the ruler of Castile as Enrique V once she dies. I'll also amend this with João II supporting La Beltraneja and her heir's claim and receiving Huelva + Niebla at the expense of Portuguese support in order to put down the rebels. I think this is a better compromise than my first proposal (post #62).
Yes, this work... Remember: the two Isabella shipped in Sicily (where likely they will marry Ferdinand I of Naples and his grandson the future Ferdinand II) and Segrobe as heir of Aragon (and husband of Juana of Aragon, daughter of John II)
 
I think ITTL the Dauphin or the Duke of Anjou after Nicholas might marry Catherine of Navarre to unite the Angevin and Navarrese claims to Aragon.
 
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Footnote - Update on Chapter 2, Status on Chapter 3 + Sources I've Used
I have updated Chapter 2 after feedback/suggestion made by @Lusitania and @isabella about the Castilian Succession, feel free to check it out.

In addition, expect chapter 3 to be coming in a week (most likely after Monday), since I got a midterm to study for, because I suck at math. Any more suggestions, questions and feedback are welcome :)

Here are the sources I've used for my TL so far:
 
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I have updated Chapter 2 after feedback/suggestion made by @Lusitania and @isabella about the Castilian Succession, feel free to check it out.

In addition, expect chapter 3 to be coming in a week (most likely after Monday), since I got a midterm to study for, because I suck at math. Any more suggestions, questions and feedback are welcome :)

Here are the sources I've used for my TL so far:
Very good now, only Isabel of Castile must recognize Juana as legitimate daughter of Henry IV and rightful Queen of Castile (and so returning the crown to her, with the recognition of her own rights as heiress presuntive until Juana has children) and little Isabella of Aragon is already Queen of Sicily (as her father was King of Sicily since 1468)
 
Chapter 3 - O Príncipe Perfeito
Chapter 3 - O Príncipe Perfeito

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D. João II
Afonso V (and XII of Castile jure uxoris) died in 1481, leaving his second wife Juana I and their only child produced in their union, a healthy one named Infante Enrique in 1479, who would succeed her as Enrique V upon her death in 1530, making Castile into something close to a Portuguese vassal (although it is technically not) under a new cadet branch of the House of Avis. As per the Treaty of Mérida in 1477, the short-lived personal union between Castile and Portugal is split between Portugal, with Prince João assuming the thrones of Portugal, Galiza and Leão as João II and Castile under Juana and her heir apparent, Infante Enrique.

At 26 years old, he was well experienced in the affairs of the Kingdom, especially when working with his father in decision-making. He was very smart, pious and well educated thanks in part to the Italian Humanist Justo Baldino. Determined, hard-working and skilled in politics, João II brought new steel to the power of the king for many generations. Even Niccolò Machiavelli allegedly used him as a model of how an archetypical ruler should rule in his work The Prince. Those of his own subjects know that under his rule, they soon learned to submit - or die trying.

João II’s long reign [1] was one, if not the most pivotal in Portuguese history. It was under his reign that Portugal made great strides in overseas expansion from Brazil to Elmina to the island of the Luções, with recognizable names like Bartolomeu Dias, Vasco da Gama, Afonso de Albuquerque and Fernão de Magalhães playing key roles in the early years of the empire. The power of the crown has also grown immensely under his reign, keeping the fidalgos in check.

Upon his ascension to the throne in 1481, he convened his first Portuguese cortes in Évora in an intense atmosphere, as everyone, even the Galician and Leonese nobles that gained the support of Afonso V during the War of the Castilian Succession know about João’s personality feared what might he do. The representatives of the concelhos took the opportunity in the cortes to present a long list of grievances committed by greater nobles within their patrimonies and calling for royal justice to be enforced by crown officials in all such jurisdictions. João himself remembered hearing several grievances during his father’s reign in the cortes sessions of 1475 and 1477 while acting as regent for him, and was aware that under his father’s reign that the nobility’s influence prevented him from taking action.

While affirming the traditional rights of the nobility, João declared that all grants of land, lordships and jurisdictional privileges now required confirmation from the king, and subjected to scrutinization. He also insisted that the nobles and the other leading subjects must swear allegiance to the new king as their unequivocal superior, and no longer as merely first among equals in the traditional feudal way. Accordingly, a great oath-taking ceremony took place to solidify João’s position in the throne, while the assembled magnates and representatives of the cortes remained humbly standing. The ceremony roused bitter resentment among some nobles, especially from Fernando, the third Duke of Bragança and the most powerful magnate in the country at the time. The king aware of the potential threat posed by Bragança, and the army he probably possesses. João was supposed to have once quipped to him, “the royal patrimony is divided more or less equally between you and me.”

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Fernando II, Duke of Bragança
Given João’s determination to consolidate and build his reputation in the Kingdom, he knew that a showdown with Bragança was almost inevitable. By 1482, Fernando and his supporters had already decided that João must go and begun to conspire for his removal. However, with the lack of foreign encouragement [2], and with Henry I consolidating Aragon following John II’s death three years earlier, they were eventually doomed from the start. João moved swiftly, arresting Bragança and the other conspirators he could find. Imprisoned, for a year, he was eventually tried for 22 counts of treason, including obstructing royal justice in a special court, and was beheaded. Fernando’s brothers, the marquis of Montemor-o-Novo and the count of Faro were similarly tried and executed the same way [3]. The Bragança domains were confiscated and remained in royal hands indefinitely.

For the anti-centralist nobles, the Bragança conspiracy was a devastating failure, but their resentment for the rising power of the crown was by no means extinguished, and within a few months, other nobles began to conspire for a second time. The new conspiracy again involved some of the most illustrious families in the country, including the Meneses, Coutinhos, Silveiras, Albuquerques and Ataides. One of the key instigators was the Bishop of Évora, Garcia de Meneses, but the real leader was Diogo, the Duke of Viseu, whose sister Leonor was João II’s queen. A passive supporter of the Bragança conspiracy, he had been cautioned, but fell on death ears. The conspirators planned to assassinate both the king and his heir apparent Infante Afonso, and elevate Diogo to the throne. Once Diogo becomes king, he would marry an Aragonese princess and return to the pro-nobility policies of Afonso V.

The conspirators came close to confronting the King on several occasions, but eventually João learned about the second conspiracy and summoned the Duke of Viseu to his private chambers in Setúbal. On September 28, 1484, Diogo was stabbed to death after João confronted him with evidence to assassinate him. The other ringleaders were rounded up to be executed or imprisoned, and the bishop of Évora was placed in a disused cistern in Palmela Castle, where he soon died. However, he did not extend the punishments beyond the immediate conspirators. He allowed Diogo’s younger brother Manuel to succeed him and inherit his demesne as both the dukes of Viseu and Beja.

After the suppression of both the Bragança and the Viseu conspiracies, João II was able dominate the higher nobility to an extent that is much greater than his previous predecessors. He kept the creation of new titles to a bare minimum, and only four individuals were granted peerages, one being his much-loved illegitimate son Jorge and another to Duke Manuel of Viseu and Beja. The prestige and power of the crown grew steadily to the satisfaction of the cortes, which in 1490 endorsed the trend of centralization. Dynastic continuity, external security and internal stability was brought into Portugal [4].

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The Cathedral of Santiago de Compostela
In regards to his policy towards Portugal’s new territories, in the late half of the 1480s, João sought to restore the old ties between Portugal and Galiza. The language was more influenced by Castilian language in the last few centuries, thanks in part to the Castilianized nobility. He encouraged the upper echelons of Galician society to drop the use of Castilian and adopt Portuguese, without hesitation thanks to his charisma. The Archdiocese of Santiago de Compostela’s hierarchy became more dependent of Lisbon, with the local church bishops slowly becoming replaced with Portuguese ones, a policy that was of João’s predecessor after 1477, and Portuguese becomes the language used in official church documents. Another policy Afonso made after the war was that in 1480, the Galician notaries had to go to Lisbon in order to do their exams in Portuguese and write every official document in that language. Slowly, but surely was the Galician language becoming de-Castilianized and becoming more influenced by Portuguese, restoring the union made between the two languages.

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Salamanca
In Leão, João also began to adopt the policy of slowly replacing the noble titles and church officials with local nobles and bishops that are loyal to the crown perspectively. This angered some of the Leonese nobles, which led to a small rebellion in Salamanca in 1486 which was easily crushed. As with Galiza, João implemented the abandonment of Castilian and the encouragement of the renaissance of the Leonese language, although the language and its dialects were becoming more influenced by Portuguese over time. The Portuguese also claimed the territories in Western Andalusia per the Treaty of Sahagún in 1158, which placed Niebla and Huelva in the Leonese sphere of influence. Those territories later became part of Portugal (as part of the Kingdom of Leão) in 1483 in exchange for the expenses of Portuguese troops brought in after a noble conspiracy in Castile that called for the reinstatement of Isabel as the Queen of Castile.

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The Conquest of the Canary Islands
The Canary Islands became fully conquered by 1496. Unlike the earlier noble conquests made by Jean de Béthencourt, the conquest was carried directly by the Kingdom of Portugal itself, who armed and partly financed the conquest of the islands which are still unconquered: Tamarão, Benahoare and Achinet. After this, the Canaries were directly incorporated into the Kingdom of Portugal. Like in the earlier settlement of the Açores and Madeira, the new Portuguese settlers to the Canaries came mostly from Algarve, Minho and Alentejo, as well as some from Madeira and the Açores, and the newly gained territories of Galiza and Huelva, as well as some Flemish migrants, growing at the expense of the existing Norman and Castilian settlers, which became increasingly subject to lusification. The indigenous Guanche people become ethnically and culturally absorbed by the Portuguese, and large elements of their culture survive to this day, intermixed within Canarian customs [5] and traditions.

Portugal1483.png

The Kingdom of Portugal after 1483, with the addition of Niebla and Huelva

[1] João II will reign 30 more years than OTL
[2] Apparently OTL they were received some encouragement from Isabella and Ferdinand, but that is butterflied TTL.
[3] OTL they fled to Castile after the conspiracy, but were caught TTL.
[4] Infante Afonso's fatal horse-riding accident in 1491 gets butterflied TTL as well.
[5] Read as Canarian Portuguese, not Canarian Spanish.
 
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Lusitania

Donor
Good update and like how you touched on several points in beginning then jumped to political intrigue. Leave room for economic development, trade and start of manufacturing for next update. For one thing that was repeatedly emphasized in Portuguese history was the fact Portugal never was a country that manufactured almost anything. We produced agricultural goods and along with stuff we imported from Africa and elsewhere were able to buy the goods we needed.
 
Good update and like how you touched on several points in beginning then jumped to political intrigue. Leave room for economic development, trade and start of manufacturing for next update. For one thing that was repeatedly emphasized in Portuguese history was the fact Portugal never was a country that manufactured almost anything. We produced agricultural goods and along with stuff we imported from Africa and elsewhere were able to buy the goods we needed.

My next chapter will focus on the development of Portugal's economy at the dawn of the Renaissance. This would be a difficult chapter to write in the coming days since I not an expert in economics. Fortunately I got this book from Cambridge University Press, An Economic History of Portugal, 1143–2010 on the Google Play Store (a great steal since it's on sale), so this would help me out. @Lusitania do you have any ideas on how the Portuguese economy, trade and manufacturing could develop more than OTL during the late 15th/early 16th century?

Also, who would be the potential spouse for Infante Afonso TTL since her OTL spouse Isabella is now married to Ferdinand II of Naples? I am looking towards getting someone from England, a Habsburg, or an Italian or German state at the time.

@Gabingston for your French Carolina TL, how do your TTL place names into French, Portuguese, English, etc. (ex. Kirkeston to Quebec) I know some are transliterations and direct translations.
 
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@Gabingston for your French Carolina TL, how do your TTL place names into French, Portuguese, English, etc. (ex. Kirkeston to Quebec) I know some are transliterations and direct translations.
Well, Kirkeston is named for David Kirke, the privateer who conquered Quebec in 1629 IOTL and 1628 ITTL. For other places, I'll come up with names based on the Geography (for example, Duluth is named Lakesend ITTL, because of it's location at the end of Lake Superior), or I'll take native names for the location and translate or adapt them into the language of the colonizer.
 
My next chapter will focus on the development of Portugal's economy at the dawn of the Renaissance. This would be a difficult chapter to write in the coming days since I not an expert in economics. Fortunately I got this book from Cambridge University Press, An Economic History of Portugal, 1143–2010 on the Google Play Store (a great steal since it's on sale), so this would help me out. @Lusitania do you have any ideas on how the Portuguese economy, trade and manufacturing could develop more than OTL during the late 15th/early 16th century?

Also, who would be the potential spouse for Infante Afonso TTL since her OTL spouse Isabella is now married to Ferdinand II of Naples? I am looking towards getting someone from England, a Habsburg, or an Italian or German state at the time.

@Gabingston for your French Carolina TL, how do your TTL place names into French, Portuguese, English, etc. (ex. Kirkeston to Quebec) I know some are transliterations and direct translations.
Likely some English, French or Navarrerese princess... Aragon has nobody available...
Naples can offer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlotte_of_Naples...
With the right ATL circumstances both https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bianca_Maria_Sforza and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_I_of_Navarre can be taken in consideration
 
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Lusitania

Donor
The biggest issues we used to have in iotl was that Portugal lacked minerals such as iron. With the inclusion of Galicia and León I believe we actually get the iron deposits. So what is required is a bit of luck in finding some minerals that could spur economic growth of 16th century industries. In addition look at the things we started to produce later on in both Spain and Portugal history and find equivalent 15-16th versions of it.

going against the Portuguese was that elements in Catholic Church felt it wrong to manufacture and correct to own land and produce stuff. Then we had circumstances of having items to trade from Africa and then India for the items others manufactured so industry was ignored. This led to Portuguese idea of not needing to make anything. We had the gold to buy it. So while we are exploring it is important for king to establish the right and duty to be industrious and produce our own stuff. We grow cotton produce fabric.

From what I read the expulsion of the religious orders in England led to the establishment of crafts and trades that at one time was dominated by the religious orders who had the monks and nuns produce things in the convents. The issue is the church will fight (religious orders ) maybe that leads to the Italian religious orders being kicked out and national ones take their place. Ones that prayed more, helped poor more and were less commercial enterprises.

If Portugal does not have enough people to work mines or agricultural lands import them from North Africans (slave raids) and bring Africans from west Africa to work in Portugal. Bring people in from other parts of Europe if possible by making Portugal open to refugees. At same time offer slaves opportunity to work their way out of slavery. Make kids of slaves free people. Look for ways to increase productivity (Portuguese adopted many things the Arabs left behind.) Let that continue.Look at inventions from other areas Portugal trades. Dutch plow, other innovations. The idea might be that Portuguese with larger country and many needs needed to be as industrious as possible. Windmills and anything else that makes Portuguese more industrious due to limited number of people. accept refugees from war torn parts of Europe, Christians fleeing Muslim rule.

One advantage of these refugees, slaves from North Africa and West Africa would be need to occupy the church to teach them Portuguese. Could also spur development of centralized language.

another major issue for Portuguese was the amount of land that church and church orders controlled especially in south. These lands provided no revenue to state but only enriched the church.

another factor is the two major religious military orders. They can to be involved in subduing North Africa.
 
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At this moment Castile has lost 3 of its 4 zones of settlers origin (Galiza, Extremadura province in Leon and the Canary Islands, keeping only Castile) and 2 of its 5 zones of sailors origin (Galiza and the Canary Islands, keeping Basque country, the Cantabria province with its 4 major harbors – the most know is Santander, and the region of Seville-Cadiz)

Now there are several options to the Castilian Empire:

  1. Kept as it is, the Castilian crown can establish an empire smaller then OTL but still posing a threat to the Portuguese plans

  2. Kept its conquests directed to North Africa, as such they must lose the Basque region to Navarre that claims it and the Seville-Cadiz region and the Cantabria province to the Portuguese

  3. Kept just a landlock Iberian kingdom, then Murcia must go for Aragon that claims it and Granada to Portugal.
Now we have a Castile with many nobles that lost lands and revenues in the former Kingdom of Leon, but also ruled by a queen that they say it’s illegitimate.

I wonder if this wouldn’t led to the formation of an permanent Portuguese army, in the way of the Swiss as such as Afonso de Albuquerque tried to do in India, but failed.

It will reinforce the spy’s networks that João I had in Castile, as he must help his half-brother to prevent the return of Isabella.

Granada with a more weak and divided Castile, sooner rather than later will declare war on Castile.

The attacks will be more aggressive with more zones taken from Castile, but this also threatens the Portuguese control of the Gibraltar Strait and that is something that the Portuguese king can´t accept.

The most like is to launch a land offensive in the western provinces of Granada and naval attacks to control the ports of Malaga and Almeria to get a better control of the waters and prevent some help from other Mediterranean nations.

Just a curious note, but one that João I will most like used; the last time Leon was independent with Juan de Castilla e de Tarifa in 1296, titled John I, King of León, Galicia and Sevilla.

In 1301 he abdicated reuniting the two kingdoms Leon and Castile.

So, this could be the precedent to get the Seville-Cadiz region, with Cantabria and the recognition of the conquest of Granada the price that Castile had to pay for the Portuguese help in ending troubles in Castile again.

Traditionally Portugal exported wine, dried fruits, salt, leather and some dyes all things that the new lands also produced and could help further expansion of business.

True, Iron is one of more difficult to get but the Iberian Pyrite Belt (from Alcácer do Sal to Sevilla, is mainly in Portuguese lands now) and its main content is copper, zinc, lead, sulfer and sometimes gold and silver, it was very explored in Roman times, but less in the Medieval times, but some miners from Central Europe could put them on the map again.

One of the bigger deposits is in Rio Tinto near Huelva, for copper, silver, gold, iron and manganese, it was rediscovered OTL in 1556 but only start working 200 years later.

But the best iron and coal deposits are the Cantabria province (some do exist in Asturias which in Portuguese hands), as well as tin deposits exists in Cantabria and Basque country.

The new kingdoms also have good production of cattle and cereals, but as the population also increased, I don´t know if it is enough to cover de Portuguese chronic deficit of cereals, good wine and fruit region in Huelva and good fishing grounds in Galiza and Huelva

There are also Merino Sheep in Leon, but as Portugal has a chronic deficit of cereals, I don´t know if it will be very supporting of expanding the current flocks.

In the Canaries the Portuguese will go for sugar, after all is a spice at the time and could get sulfur (at least when they start to use gunpowder).


Edited for the economic section
 
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