Scramble For China

[Rishi]

What conditions are necessary for there to have been a Chinese equivalent of the Scramble For Africa? Create a Scramble For China involving European colonial empires gaining colonies for themselves from territories contained in present-day China. For example, the British take Yunnan as one of their colonies, the French take Chongqing as one of their colonies, the Germans take Guangdong as one of their colonies, etc.

 

[Escape Zeppelin]

The better comparison is the European conquest of India rather than Africa. The best option is probably if the Qing fail to establish a lasting dynasty and in the 1600's China fractures into many different small nations. Then the Europeans slowly acquire it by playing those states against each other via protectorates and subordinate nations.

 

[Skallagrim]

Best bet to meet the posited scenario... Rivalry between Britain and Russia lasts longer and/or runs hotter. Franco-Russian alliance versus Anglo-Prusso-Japanese alliance. No war, but both alliances have designs on China, and neither can trust each other to stay out (so both sides feel compelled to 'make a move'). Thus, a third party -- the USA -- steps in to broker a treaty dividing China into colonial zones. Naturally, for his trouble, Uncle Sam gets substantial trade access to the colonies of both blocs.

 

[Tyler96]

I'm just wildly spitballing here, but...

Things go even worse for the Qing in the 19th century than OTL- the rebellions (Taiping, Nian, Miao, Panthay, Dungan etc.) are more successful and any semblance of central authority collapses.

Then you could get Brits and others nibbling away from their positions on the coast- perhaps first just as a means of securing their coastal footholds from the anarchy going on, but things could snowball a little. And the Russians would be sticking their noses further into Mongolia and Xinjiang.

Much of the country would remain in the hands of native regimes, but you'd get Europeans involved in their internal affairs- playing different warlords against each other, providing military equipment, seeking advantageous trade conditions etc. You'd presumably get Brits and Russians competing for influence in the westernmost regions of China, with the Great Game and all that- we saw an embryonic form of this in their contacts with Yaqub Beg IOTL.

If you squint hard enough, the Europeans' relationship with native Chinese leaders- at least the ones in their immediate vicinity- might start to very vaguely resemble indirect rule a la Africa and India.

 

[Rajveer Naha]

The British after the first opium war needs to decide that it wants to take care of China too and impose a harsher peace. Some in another similar thread argue that with India the hands of the British are full and no way they can keep China too.

After the second opium war they need to work out a deal with the French and Russians to divide China into spheres of influence and seize as many ports as possible even river ports on the Pearl and Yangtze rivers so by the 1870s China is in a similar situation to that in 1901 after the Boxer rebellion. The Taiping rebellion will in this TL further damage China and de facto British rule can be then established in the Yangtze basin and French rule on the Pearl basin by 1900. China would become another jewel in the British crown. In the late 1800s other empires like Germans , Japanese and Russians will join the fray.

By 1910 you have China proper divided as such French Pearl basin, British Yangtze basin and Tibet, Japanese Korea and Shandong peninsula and Liaodong peninsula and Taiwan ,Russian Manchuria with Mongolia (both inner and outer) and Xinjiang and finally German territories between the Japanese and British zones.

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

Isn't that what basically happened IOTL after the Sino-Japanese War?
Even Austria-Hungary managed to get a concession in Tianjin.

No WWI/much later WWI + warlord era could result in a partition of most of the country between the colonial powers.

 

[RousseauX]

Best bet to meet the posited scenario... Rivalry between Britain and Russia lasts longer and/or runs hotter. Franco-Russian alliance versus Anglo-Prusso-Japanese alliance. No war, but both alliances have designs on China, and neither can trust each other to stay out (so both sides feel compelled to 'make a move'). Thus, a third party -- the USA -- steps in to broker a treaty dividing China into colonial zones. Naturally, for his trouble, Uncle Sam gets substantial trade access to the colonies of both blocs.

A Qing collapse in the 1850s-60s will do it