Scottish Devolution in 1979

maverick

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What if the Scottish Devolution Referendum of 1979 had met with the necessary criteria so as to allow for Devolution to come to Scotland in 1979 instead of 1997?

What would this do to British Politics? Would this help or damage the Scottish National Party? And what would it do to the Callaghan Ministry?
 
What if the Scottish Devolution Referendum of 1979 had met with the necessary criteria so as to allow for Devolution to come to Scotland in 1979 instead of 1997?

What would this do to British Politics? Would this help or damage the Scottish National Party? And what would it do to the Callaghan Ministry?
In a bizzare fashion, it would have helped the Conservatives more than any other party.

The SNP had shot their bolt by 1979 and the Tories were, relatively speaking popular, winning the most votes in the European election in Scotland and winning over 30% at the UK General election.

Even if you factor in a larger support for the SNP at the Assembly elections, the Tories would still probably be the main opposition in the Assembly, probably meaning that the Labour Party took the hit for the early surge in unemployment in Scotland. It would also give Thatcherism a Scottish face.

With regards the SNP, at this stage, I can't see them doing well at all as they would be squeezed in an ideological fight. At this stage, devolution probably would kill the SNP. Their big chance was in 1974. An election in '75, maybe but by '79, they were in all kinds of trouble.

If you wanted the Tories possibly even by the year 2000 winning a national election in Scotland, this is the way.

EDIT: Alternatively, it could go the opposite way and become the GLC writ large. The more I think about it, the more my own thoughts are divided on the subject.
 
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Doing this is rather difficult given the requirements in the referendum. If I remember my Scottish History class, the referendum had to be passed by a majority of registered voters, rather than a simple majority. That is, if 51% of people voted, but there was only a 50% voter turn out, the referendum fails because only 25% of voters actually voted yes. IOTL the turn out was close to 64% and the yes vote had the simple majority 51.6%-48.4%. According to the rules in the referendum, this meant it failed because only 33% of voters had voted Yes.

To get this to pass you really have three options.

1. Somehow increase voter turn out to as close to 100% while increasing the Yes vote so you can have a majority under the terms agreed to.
2. Somehow have the Yes vote receive an unquestionable majority. You'd need at least 81% of the voters to choose Yes for it to pass with OTL level turn out.
3. Have a referendum in which a majority yes vote results in its passage regardless of voter turnout.

In my opinion, 3 is the only one that really works. I don't think you're likely to increase voter turn out, and you're even less likely to get 81% of those who vote in the referendum to support it. I mean, there wasn't that level of support in 1997 when devolution actually happened.

If option three you might have some problems with the fact that Scottish devolution was passed by a simple majority rather than the supermajority of OTL. 51% versus the 74% of OTL might make a big difference in how things are perceived.

Generally speaking, my guess is that it was close to impossible for it to pass according to the OTL criteria. You can probably get Scottish devolution in 1979-but you need to alter the referendum itself to get it.
 
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