Scotland, Callaghan, Thatcher and others. A timeline from March 1979

[pipisme]

The POD is that in the referendum on Scottish devolution on 1 March 1979, the Yes vote received the votes of 40.9% of the registered electorate. In OTL it was 32.9% of the electorate. The Yes vote and the turnout were higher than in OTL. Because this was more than the 40% of the electorate required, the Scotland Act 1978 came into force. (1)

Therefore the SNP did not withdraw its support from the Labour government, and there was not a motion of no confidence in the government. So no government defeat on the motion and no May 1979 general election. On 4 September 1979, the Prime Minister, James Callaghan, announced on radio and television that a general election would be held on Thursday 4 October. Parliament would be dissolved on 14 September and nominations close on 24 September.

Although Jeremy Thorpe had been acquitted at the Old Bailey on 22 June 1979, on charges of conspiracy and incitement to murder his former lover, Norman Scott, he did not stand for re-election as Liberal MP for North Devon.

The number of seats won by each party in the general election were as follows (October 1974 general election):
Conservative: 304 (277)
Labour: 301 (319)
Liberal: 12 (13)
Ulster Unionist: 6 (6)
SNP: 4 (11)
DUP: 2 (1)
Plaid Cymru: 2 (3)
SDLP: 1 (1)
Independent Republican: 1 (1)
United Popular Unionist: 1 (n/a)
United Ulster Unionist: 1 (n/a)
(Vanguard: 3)
------------------------
Total: 635 (635)
-----------------------
Margaret Jackson (later to become Margaret Beckett) and Shirley Williams both held their seats for Labour. The Liberals held North Devon.

(1) See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotland_Act_1978.

 

[Fenrisúlfr]

It's worth discussing what powers the Scottish assembly of 1979 would have, also the proposed electoral system.

My understanding is that it was proposed that the assembly use FPTP? Although I'm happy to stand corrected on this. If FPTP was used you're basically talking about a permanent Labour administration. Although the faction of Labour it might be is beyond me.

As for powers, the Scottish Assembly would have powers over:

• Education
• The environment
• Health
• Home affairs
• Legal matters
• Social services

With power over agriculture and fisheries shared between Westminster and Edinburgh. It'd be a pretty weak parliament, with no tax raising powers. Much weaker than the 1999 parliament.

If the Conservatives win government under Thatcher in the 1980s I could see them waging war on the Scottish parliament and winning. It's just going to be too weak an institution to survive. It'll be disliked by nationalists for its lack of power, disliked by liberals for its FPTP system and centralising tendencies and hated by the Tories for being a permanent Labour stronghold.

I see the fires of Scottish nationalism and self determination being stoked in the long term. Perhaps we'll see a 2014 in 1994 instead?

 

[Nazi Space Spy]

Excited to see where this goes!

 

[pipisme]

Under the Scotland Bill elections to the Scottish assembly would be by FPTP. But the House of Lords voted in fsvour of the Additional Member System (AMS).. This was reversed in the House of Commons, Under the Scotland Act 1978, the first election would be by FPTP, though Parliament could legislate for future elections to be by AMS.

The Conservatives lost three seats to Labour in Scotland in the general election: Aberdeen South, Edinburgh Pentands (Malcolm Rifkind defeated), and Glasgow Cathcart, where the shadow Scottish Secretary, Teddy Taylor lost his seat. As in the May 1979 general election in OTL.

The Conservatives and various Northern Ireland Unionists had 314 seats. Labour plus Liberal and SNP, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, and Independent Republican had 321 seats. But with the Speaker, George Thomas, being Labour, this would be 320 seats. The situation was similar to after the February 1974 general election, with neither the Conservatives or Labour having a majority of seats. Then Edward Heath offered the Liberals a coalition with a seat in the cabinet, which Liberals MP rejected. This time Margaret Thatcher did not make such an offer. So there would be a Labour minority government.

The question was whether or not there would be another Lib- Lab pact. The Liberals ended the first pact in August 1978. The cabinet agreed to negotiate with Liberal MPs on having a pact. On 8 October Liberal MPs voted by 10 votes to 2 votes in favour of a pact for one parliamentary session. David Alton and Cyril Smith voted against. Conditions of the previous pact were that the Labour government would give the House of Commons votes on proportional representation (PR) for elections to the European Parliament, and elections to the proposed Scottish and Welsh assemblies. However the Commons voted against PR for these elections on free votes. This time, cabinet ministers agreed to propose an amendment to the Scotland Act 1978 for elections to the Scottish assembly to be by AMS. They also agreed to introduce a Freedom of Information Bill. Also the Joint Consultative Committee between the cabinet and the Liberal shadow cabinet was reinstated,

The percentage votes for each party in the October 1979 general election were as follows (October 1974 general election):
Conservative: 40.9 (35.8)
Labour: 38.9 (39.2)
Liberal: 14.8 (18.3)
SNP: 1.6 (2.9)
Plaid Cymru: 0.4 (0.6)
Others: 3.4 (3.2)
--------------------------
Total: 100.0 (100.0)
--------------------------

 

[pipisme]

Here is the link to the debate in the House of Commons on the Lords amendment to the Scotland Bill, which provided for elections to the Scottish assembly to be by AMS: http://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1978/jul/06/the-scottish-assembly. The vote was 363 to 155 in favour of disagreeing with the Lords amendment. Conservative and Labour MPs voted for and against the amendment. See also after division lists, Mr. Deputy Speaker (Mr. Oscar Murton), Lords amendment No.11 that after the first election the Scottish Assembly may amend the system of voting by means of a bill, which the Commons disagreed with. But see (7).

 

[marktaha]

The POD is that in the referendum on Scottish devolution on 1 March 1979, the Yes vote received the votes of 40.9% of the registered electorate. In OTL it was 32.9% of the electorate. The Yes vote and the turnout were higher than in OTL. Because this was more than the 40% of the electorate required, the Scotland Act 1978 came into force. (1)

Therefore the SNP did not withdraw its support from the Labour government, and there was not a motion of no confidence in the government. So no government defeat on the motion and no May 1979 general election. On 4 September 1979, the Prime Minister, James Callaghan, announced on radio and television that a general election would be held on Thursday 4 October. Parliament would be dissolved on 14 September and nominations close on 24 September.

Although Jeremy Thorpe had been acquitted at the Old Bailey on 22 June 1979, on charges of conspiracy and incitement to murder his former lover, Norman Scott, he did not stand for re-election as Liberal MP for North Devon.

The number of seats won by each party in the general election were as follows (October 1974 general election):
Conservative: 304 (277)
Labour: 301 (319)
Liberal: 12 (13)
Ulster Unionist: 6 (6)
SNP: 4 (11)
DUP: 2 (1)
Plaid Cymru: 2 (3)
SDLP: 1 (1)
Independent Republican: 1 (1)
United Popular Unionist: 1 (n/a)
United Ulster Unionist: 1 (n/a)
(Vanguard: 3)
------------------------
Total: 635 (635)
-----------------------
Margaret Jackson (later to become Margaret Beckett) and Shirley Williams both held their seats for Labour. The Liberals held North Devon.

(1) See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotland_Act_1978.

Lib-Lab pact, Lab Min, Con Min? Think the first likeliest. Callaghan certainly more supporters than Thatcher overall.

 

[stodge]

It's an interesting scenario and I'm left with a few thoughts.

First, it's hard to see the SDP coming into being at this time BUT the internal leftward move within Labour wouldn't stop with a narrow and inconclusive GE. Callaghan was 67 in 1979 - how long would he want to continue given the weight of problems facing the new Government.

The Unions aren't going away either - I presume the Winter of Discontent happened in the ATL as well.

Finally, what does defeat do for Thatcher and the opposition Conservatives? Presumably she will reshuffle her Shadow Cabinet to bring in more backbenchers in her own image but, and it's a big but, if the Conservatives fail to dislodge Labour in 1983/84, I can see a challenge coming from the likes of Walker.

 

[Garrison]

It's an interesting scenario and I'm left with a few thoughts.

First, it's hard to see the SDP coming into being at this time BUT the internal leftward move within Labour wouldn't stop with a narrow and inconclusive GE. Callaghan was 67 in 1979 - how long would he want to continue given the weight of problems facing the new Government.

The Unions aren't going away either - I presume the Winter of Discontent happened in the ATL as well.

Finally, what does defeat do for Thatcher and the opposition Conservatives? Presumably she will reshuffle her Shadow Cabinet to bring in more backbenchers in her own image but, and it's a big but, if the Conservatives fail to dislodge Labour in 1983/84, I can see a challenge coming from the likes of Walker.

I doubt Thatcher would survive a defeat, there would be plenty of people in the Conservative Party happy to see the back of her.

 

[nezza]

A Lab-Lib coalition would be the most likely but it would be a real perils of Pauline existence. The SNP would demand more and more concessions from Callaghan and the Liberals would push for PR north of the border.

Callaghan could show some wilyness here though and get Liberal and SNP support to keep Labour in power for example an agreement by the smaller parties to abstain in some votes but support the government in votes of no confidence.

Thatcher would be finished. I can see Whitelaw or possibly Howe taking over.

 

[marktaha]

Most likely Pym - if she was actually defeated. I can see her offering to.form a minority government and daring them to.vote against tax reductions and curbing the unions.

 

[KingSweden24]

Interesting hook!

 

[pipisme]

Callaghan made changes to his government in the week after the general election. He moved Denis Healey from Chancellor of the Exchequer to Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary. This was the job he wanted, having been Chancellor since March 1974. David Owen was moved from Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary to Energy Secretary, in place of Tony Benn who left the government. When Owen became Foreign Secretary in February 1977 after the death of Anthony Crosland, Callaghan had warned him that he might have give it up when Healey was ready to leave the Treasury. (1). Some people thought that Owen had been promoted too high and too quickly. Peter Shore, the Environment Secretary became Chancellor of the Exchequer in place of Healey. Shirley Williams moved Education and Science Secretary to Environment Secretary. There were also other changes.

The new cabinet was as follows (previous ministers if different):
Prime Minister: James Callaghan
Lord Chancellor: Lord Elwyn-Jones
Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons: Michael Foot
Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Lords: Lord Peart
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Peter Shore (Denis Healey)
Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary: Denis Healey (David Owen)
Home Secretary : Merlyn Rees
Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food: Roy Mason (John Silkin)
Defence Secretary : William Rodgers (Fred Mulley)
Education and Science Secretary: Neil Kinnock (Shirley Williams)
Employment Secretary: Eric Varley (Albert Booth)
Energy Secretary: David Owen (Tony Benn)
Environment Secretary: Shirley Williams (Peter Shore)
Health and Social Services Secretary: Stanley Orme (David Ennals)
Industry Secretary: John Silkin (Eric Varley)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: David Ennals (Harold Lever)
Minister for Overseas Development: Judith Hart
Northern Ireland Secretary: Don Concannon (Roy Mason)
Paymaster-General: Joan Lestor (Shirley Williams)
Prices and Consumer Protection Secretary: Roy Hattersley
Scotland Secretary: Bruce Millan
Trade Secretary and President of the Board of Trade: John Smith
Transport Secretary: Albert Booth (William Rodgers)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Joel Barnett
Wales Secretary: Alec Jones (John Morris).
The cabinet was similar to Callaghan's shadow cabinet in OTL.

Selected junior ministers:
Attorney-General: John Morris (Samuel Silkin)
Solicitor-General: Peter Archer
Financial Secretary to the Treasury: Denzil Davies (Robert Sheldon)
Minister of State Treasury: Michael Meacher (Denzil Davies)

(1) See Healey's autobiography The Time of My Life , London: Michael Joseph, 1989.

 

[pipisme]

The Conservative Party was disappointed with the result of the general election. However they had gained 27 seats in the House of Commons compared with the October 1974 general election, and were the largest party in the House of Commons. There was speculation in the media about a possible challenge to Margaret Thatcher as leader of the party, but it did not come to anything. Conservative MPs felt that as Edward Heath had lost two consecutive general elections (February and October 1974) before he was challenged for the leadership, so Thatcher should be given another chance. Also there was a minority Labour government, and Callaghan might call a general election at any time.

Thatcher made few changes to her shadow cabinet. She appointed George Younger as shadow Scottish Secretary in place of Teddy Taylor, who had lost his Glasgow Cathcart seat to Labour in the general election. But most of the shadow cabinet stayed the same. Here are the shadow minister (previous minister if different):
Leader of the Opposition: Margaret Thatcher
Deputy Leader of the Opposition and Home Secretary: William Whitelaw
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Geoffrey Howe
Foreign Secretary: Francis Pym
Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food: Peter Walker (John Peyton)
Defence Secretary: Ian Gilmour
Education and Science Secretary: Mark Carlisle
Employment Secretary: James Prior
Energy Secretary: David Howell (Tom King)
Environment Secretary: Michael Heseltine
Health and Social Services Secretary: Patrick Jenkin
Industry Secretary: John Biffen
Leader of the House of Commons: Norman St. John Stevas
Northern Ireland Secretary: Humphrey Atkins
Prices and Consumer Protection Secretary: Sally Oppenheim
Scotland Secretary: George Younger (Teddy Taylor)
Trade Secretary and President of the Board of Trade: Keith Joseph (no shadow cabinet minister)
Wales: Nicholas Edwards
Minister without Portfolio (Lord Hailsham)
Attorney-General: Sir Michael Havers.

 

[gaitskellitebevanite]

Callaghan made changes to his government in the week after the general election. He moved Denis Healey from Chancellor of the Exchequer to Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary. This was the job he wanted, having been Chancellor since March 1974. David Owen was moved from Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary to Energy Secretary, in place of Tony Benn who left the government. When Owen became Foreign Secretary in February 1977 after the death of Anthony Crosland, Callaghan had warned him that he might have give it up when Healey was ready to leave the Treasury. (1). Some people thought that Owen had been promoted too high and too quickly. Peter Shore, the Environment Secretary became Chancellor of the Exchequer in place of Healey. Shirley Williams moved Education and Science Secretary to Environment Secretary. There were also other changes.

The new cabinet was as follows (previous ministers if different):
Prime Minister: James Callaghan
Lord Chancellor: Lord Elwyn-Jones
Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons: Michael Foot
Lord Privy Seal and Leader of the House of Lords: Lord Peart
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Peter Shore (Denis Healey)
Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary: Denis Healey (David Owen)
Home Secretary : Merlyn Rees
Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food: Roy Mason (John Silkin)
Defence Secretary : William Rodgers (Fred Mulley)
Education and Science Secretary: Neil Kinnock (Shirley Williams)
Employment Secretary: Eric Varley (Albert Booth)
Energy Secretary: David Owen (Tony Benn)
Environment Secretary: Shirley Williams (Peter Shore)
Health and Social Services Secretary: Stanley Orme (David Ennals)
Industry Secretary: John Silkin (Eric Varley)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: David Ennals (Harold Lever)
Minister for Overseas Development: Judith Hart
Northern Ireland Secretary: Don Concannon (Roy Mason)
Paymaster-General: Joan Lestor (Shirley Williams)
Prices and Consumer Protection Secretary: Roy Hattersley
Scotland Secretary: Bruce Millan
Trade Secretary and President of the Board of Trade: John Smith
Transport Secretary: Albert Booth (William Rodgers)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Joel Barnett
Wales Secretary: Alec Jones (John Morris).
The cabinet was similar to Callaghan's shadow cabinet in OTL.

Selected junior ministers:
Attorney-General: John Morris (Samuel Silkin)
Solicitor-General: Peter Archer
Financial Secretary to the Treasury: Denzil Davies (Robert Sheldon)
Minister of State Treasury: Michael Meacher (Denzil Davies)

(1) See Healey's autobiography The Time of My Life , London: Michael Joseph, 1989.

Given Shore's euroscepticism and his support for elements of Benn's Alternative Economic Strategy its highly unlikely he would ever have been appointed to the Treasury by Callaghan.

In OTL during the 1979 campaign Callaghan told Hattersley and Owen that if Labour did somehow win he would re-create the Department of Economic Affairs, and appoint both men as Chancellor/DEA Secretary - although didn't specify which man would get which role.

 

[pipisme]

Given Shore's euroscepticism and his support for elements of Benn's Alternative Economic Strategy its highly unlikely he would ever have been appointed to the Treasury by Callaghan.

In OTL during the 1979 campaign Callaghan told Hattersley and Owen that if Labour did somehow win he would re-create the Department of Economic Affairs, and appoint both men as Chancellor/DEA Secretary - although didn't specify which man would get which role.

I did not know that. In that case there are the following changes to the cabinet from post #12:
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Roy Hattersley
Department of Economic Affairs Secretary: David Owen
Energy Secretary: David Ennals
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: Frank Judd
Prices and Consumer Protection Secretary: Peter Shore.

 

[pipisme]

The Queen's Speech on 23 October 1979, announced the following bills to be introduced in that session of Parliament. To strengthen the Price Commission to empower it to reduce prices, and combine its functions with those of the Monopolies and Mergers Commission. A Housing Bill to give council tenants security of tenure, the right to improve their home, and to be consulted on housing managements, and to introduce a new national scheme to help tenants move from one part of the country to another. Tenants who have rented their house for at least two years will be able to buy it at a fair price, but not in areas of serious housing need. To allow local authorities to charge rates on land left unused.

A bill to bring in nationwide off peak, half price fares on buses for pensioners, the blind and disabled, where there is not free travel. A Freedom of Information Bill to enable open government. To phase out the television licence fee for pensioners during the lifetime of the Parliament. [1]

[1] These bills taken from the Labour Party manifesto for the OTL 1979 general election. See http://www.labour-party.org.uk/manifestos/1979/1979-labour-manifesto.shtml.

 

[pipisme]

Other bills promised in the Queen's Speech on 23 October 1979 were the following: to ban hare coursing and deer and stag hunting. [1] To give all employees the right to elected works councils and to share in the profits of their companies. To establish a Co-operative Development Bank. [2] To amend the Scotland Act 1978 so that elections to the Scottish Parliament, after the first one, are by the Additional Member System.

The Queen's Speech also said that the government would negotiate with the EEC to reform its common agricultural policy, and would oppose any further increase in prices until food surpluses have disappeared. [1] A Royal Commission on reform of the voting system would be appointed.

In November 1979, the following benefits were increased: the weekly pension for a married couple to about £35, and for a single person to about £22; widows, invalidity and other long term benefits to be increased proportionately; weekly child benefit increased to £4.50 and mobility allowance increased. [1]

[1] In Labour Party manifesto for OTL 1979 general election.

[2] Taken from Liberal Party manifesto for OTL 1979 general election. See http://www.libdems.co.uk/manifestos/1979/1979-liberal-manifesto.shtml.

 

[pipisme]

In the weekend before the 1979 Labour Party Conference, the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the party set up a Committee of Enquiry to recommend changes in the party constitution for the 1980 Conference. This Committee held its final meeting at Bishop's Stortford in Hertfordshire on 15 June 1980. It agreed by seven votes to six to recommend an electoral college comprising 50% Labour MPs, 25% affiliated Trade Unions, 20% constituency Labour parties and 5% other affiliated bodies such as the Fabian Society. This college would elect the party leader and have the final say on the party's election manifesto.

The 1980 Labour Party Conference re-affirmed support for mandatory re-selection of Labour MPs, but rejected the proposal to deprive the Parliamentary Labour Party of its veto over the election manifesto. It accepted the principle of an electoral college, but rejected both proposals for implementing it. However David Basnett, the General Secretary of the General and Municipal Workers Union, proposed that the party should hold Special Conference in January 1981 to decide how to implement the principle of an electoral college. This proposal was approved by a large majority. (1)

(1) All this was as in OTL and is taken from Denis Healey's autobiography, The Time of My Life London: Michael Joseph, 1989.

 

[Fenrisúlfr]

Its great to have more UK political timelines, continue the good work! I'm enjoying reading.

 

[Seandineen]

A Lab-Lib coalition would be the most likely but it would be a real perils of Pauline existence. The SNP would demand more and more concessions from Callaghan and the Liberals would push for PR north of the border.

Callaghan could show some wilyness here though and get Liberal and SNP support to keep Labour in power for example an agreement by the smaller parties to abstain in some votes but support the government in votes of no confidence.

Thatcher would be finished. I can see Whitelaw or possibly Howe taking over.

What role would David Steel play? Perhaps the Liberals could be revived, through a coalition.